All posts by uranium-pinto-beans

VIX Options $5 Million OTM Block Buy Of April 24 Calls

An enormous option block went through a little while ago for the VIX. The April $24 calls saw an over $5.4 million purchase at $1.10, for a total of 49,900 contracts. That's an amazing bet for a rise in volatility between now and April. The VIX, which is trading at 12.89, would have to almost double for those calls to be worth what they were purchased for this morning.

Volatility continues to melt lower.  The VIX has been in for quite awhile or shall I say the FIX has been in for quite awhile. Someone with over $5 million to spend on these calls either knows something we don't or has lots of money to burn. We'll find out by Spring, 2014 just how this trade worked out.

At the start of 2013, I also highlighted a similar trade. An over $7 million out-of-the-money trade on $LNCO for the downside that ended up being a huge windfall for whoever initiated it. Will this VIX trade turn into a massive profit or an epic loss? I have an odd feeling, just as I did with $LNCO last Winter, that this VIX trade will turn a profit down the road. Here's why:

Notice how the VIX spiked precisely after this massive option trade went through? It's since melted back to its previous levels.

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UPB Morning Market Video: $SPY, $TLT, $EBAY, $PCLN, $TSLA, $MCD, $GOOG, $AMZN

Stocks pulled back into the close. Bonds were bid, precious metals were volatile and some high beta names were proving their worth, or lack thereof.  Where are stocks headed Tuesday?  Will $GOOG continue to build on Monday's action?  $EBAY broke below significant support. Is it time to buy the dip? $PCLN: is $1500 coming? Tune in to today's morning outlook video:

Trading $TSLA

When $TSLA was making its way to almost $200 per share I was one of the more vocal bulls. I was also the first to bring the 3rd fire to traders, which was the breaking point for the stock. Recently, $TSLA broke to new lows but has held support and looks ready to recover to at least the $135 price level, short-term.

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The $135 level was a key support, and now that it's broken below that level the $135 price is a key resistance for $TSLA. The last 5 trading sessions have also seen the stock showing strength. It didn't break any further, and I see a sharp rally coming in the short term. So: how will I position myself for this rally?

This week's $126 calls last traded for .76. I'll be looking to get into these tomorrow morning.

Next week's $135 calls are going for .86.  I'll target those on a dip.

If I open a position on $TSLA, I'll let you know in the chat room and via private twitter.

The bottom line, in my opinion:  $TSLA has bottomed at current prices and is poised for a short-term rally to at least $135 per share, and it will be a very profitable trade when the move does occur. I intend to capitalize on the impending move via out-of-the money calls.

Where Is The Market Headed Over The Next 5 Weeks?

Stocks hit new all-time highs yet again, but suffered a pullback into the close. Are stocks set for a big pullback as we approach the end of the year, or will today's dip be just another fabulous buying opportunity? One chart that will help show where the market is headed is posted below. When trying to look at where the market is headed, I think understanding where it's traded previously is important. Looking where stocks have traded at specific times in the past can lend a hand in determining where stocks are going in the future.

Below is a chart showing the current price of the $SPY (the green line) and the 5-year average of the $SPY (the red line).

Using price history as guide we should see a 3 percent rise from current levels heading into the Christmas holiday before a small sell-off as we get closer to the end of the year. A 3 percent rise would bring the S&P 500 to the 1,850 level and the DJIA to 16,500 before year's end.

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If I Had A Nickel For Each Time: Perhaps It’s Time To Hoard Them

The chief executive of French mining group Eramet has blamed a "violent crisis" gripping the world nickel market for what he says are huge losses at a subsidiary, and said conditions are unlikely to improve for two years.

Eramet company head Patrick Buffet said overcapacity in the global market for the metal was causing Société Le Nickel, the group's nickel subsidiary based in New Caledonia, to rack up losses of 2.5 billion French Pacific francs ($27 million USD) per month.

"The crisis in the nickel [market] is very, very violent and nobody expected it to reach such a level," Mr. Buffet told reporters in Noumea on Thursday after a board meeting of Société Le Nickel, the largest private employer on the main island of Grande Terre in the French Pacific territory.

His warning came after parent group Eramet last month posted a 5% drop in third-quarter sales to 754 million euros, mainly because of slumping global nickel prices.

Mr. Buffet said "alarming" levels of overcapacity stemmed from a steep rise in production from major consumer China, which in less than 10 years has spurred its output of the metal from zero to 450,000 metric tons per year, after importing cut-price ore from Indonesia.

High levels of mineral stocks on the London Metal Exchange and elsewhere had pushed down prices to "extraordinarily low levels" of between $6 and $6.50 per pound, well below the company's cost of production, Mr. Buffet said.

To counter its problems, Société Le Nickel will reduce spending and rein in investments and has also not ruled out job losses, Buffet declared.

Mr. Buffet also remarked that he foresaw the coming years as being "extremely painful" for the market, while there would be no improvement in conditions for two years.

New Caledonia is home to a quarter of the world's reserves of nickel, a key ingredient in the manufacture of stainless steel.