Another day goes by and the market continues to rally closing right around 2150. Volatility is shrinking and we are seeing strong leadership from the financials and a few tech names as the market continues its accent. For now, I have not added much and will wait until tomorrow near the close or even Thursday to do so. With Wednesday being known for premium crush, given the lack of volatility I felt it was smart to be on the side of caution. Instead I am taking advantage of the aforementioned premium crush by selling premium, which I will go over in the article.
With the S&P 500 sitting right near record highs this week will be the ultimate test of whether this market has the strength to rally. Personally I think that the market will have a failed breakout here (possible move up to 2150) and head lower. Given that we have not even started earning season I think that the risk is to the downside, however, given the current market climate until we see a reversal candle I will be looking for call plays. I will go over a few stocks that I am watching and what I will be watching for this week.
Looking back at today’s trading day, the biggest theme for me was keeping all of my trades small. I was not sure if today was going to be a gap and trap or a gap and go. In a way it ended up being kind of like both with the morning and early afternoon acting pretty weak and the afternoon ripping higher. Much of my trades were trying to fade the move with 1 being successful, 1 being a marginal success, and 1 a nice quick gain. I will outline what I think I did right and wrong in each trade. Then I will go over my two trades that I have on for tomorrow and what my targets are for each.
As I am writing this, the S&P 500 is down 20 points in the pre-market, looking to extend its losses from Friday. In order to navigate this weeks markets, I am going to lay out a few scenarios that I see happening tomorrow and how to play each. While it is hard to make a prediction for how long the selling will last, given that this is such a shock to markets and we have only seen one day of trading post Brexit, I will give a few trades that I will be watching, both short and longer term.