Tag Archives: Trade Tip

Two Free Trading Webinars With Chris D This Week – Register Here

Hi Folks,

I've been working on two webinars simultaneously.  The first one, "Bottom Fishing For The Next Winner - Big Bases" this Thursday night, should appeal to our right brained members.  Bottom fishing is a tough game to play, as you are normally trying to find life in stocks which people have hated for years (think tech stocks after 2000). This webinar will show you one way how to find that hated stock which is about to come back to life and break out to the upside!

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The Heisenberg Indicator (HI) Preliminary Readings Are In – Stocks To Rise Into The Fall

The last few weeks the often quoted and seemingly always wrong Hindenburg Omen has been triggered. This isn't the first time we've heard about this omen. It's been about as right as a broken clock, and that's being generous. It's wrong until its right, and right until its wrong, but no one ever knows when those times are. I'd go on further to say, that even a broken clock is more reliable than the Hindenburg Omen. Let the talking heads in the media have their omen. Let them spew its graphic detail of how the market just might collapse, how each trigger of this Omen brings us one step closer to a complete collapse of the equity markets. Haven't we heard this before? Why don't we call it the Cyrpus Omen, the Fiscal Cliff Omen, the European Crisis Omen, or the How I just lost my ass Omen trying to short a market that keeps going higher. Get the point? The market is going higher omen or no omen.

There is one indicator that has only been triggered once. It gave one buy signal and has never been wrong.

The Heisenberg Omen.

It doesn't get triggered each day. It doesn't say maybe, if, when, or how. It doesn't rely upon a bevy of varying indicators that change on a daily basis. It only provides, after a buy or sell signal, potential degrees of movement in the market. It's only been triggered once in late 2008. It gave a buy signal and has not looked back yet.

The good news: The preliminary readings are in for August and the HI is showing a strong finish to the month and an overall rise of stocks into the fall.

What is the HI?  http://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/the-heisenberg-indicator/

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August 14th Watchlist

Yesterday was all about $AAPL. Carl Icahn utilized twitter to announce a big purchase in the company and said there was more to come. I think this sends $AAPL over $500 before the end of the week. It may consolidate, but the trend is higher over the rest of the year.

Stocks slumped at the open yesterday but most recovered their losses as the day progressed. As zerohedge noted later in the day http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-13/its-deja-btfd-all-over-again, the BTFD action has been almost like pavlovs dog. Every day the dip gets bought yet the market remains off its highs. Are we consolidating for the next move to break through all time highs? Or is the market running out of money and ready to pull back?

Bonds took a tumble yesterday with $TLT plunging below $105 before recovering. While there may be bounces along the way $TLT puts are going to work out well moving into the end of summer and end of year. Those $106 puts @.19 on monday traded as high as $1.30 yesterday.

$GOOG looks to be suffering from $AAPL's rally as they are moving in different directions. I'd like to think GOOG will make a move over $900 into weeks end, but thus far the stock is stuck in reverse. Yesterday it broke through November 2012 support and the stock needs to get back above it in a hurry.

We have some earnings after the bell. I like NTAP for a pop afterhours. CSCO I am not so sure about. However the trend for CSCO is up, and last earnings it gapped higher, so I'd lean toward more upside post earnings.

This is monthly option expiration week, invariably stocks seem to stick to strike prices. I wrote this last year "http://www.optionmillionaires.com/2012/pegged-aapl-and-goog-stock-prices-manipulated-on-options-expiriation-part-i/"

DE reported earnings this morning, I may try and get in early on with some calls.

Have a great trading day.

Earnings after the bell include CSCO and NTAP

U.S. wholesale prices were unchanged in July, as prices declined for energy, didn't change for food, and rose for pharmaceuticals, the U.S. Department of Labor reported Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the core producer-price index, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.1%. The report signals that inflation was contained in July. Weak international conditions have been pressuring prices.

Upgrades/downgrades/analyst notes

$WMT Wal-Mart anticipate improved sales recovery, says Susquehanna
Susquehanna previewed Wal-Mart's Q2 earnings report and believes the company remains well positioned to capitalize on the value-seeking mid- to low-end consumer while showing a modest improvement in same store sales. The firm has immediate concerns over the back-to-school season and recent trends in the low-consumer market. Shares remain Positive rated with an $85 price target.

$BBY Best Buy price target raised to $38 from $30 at Barclays
Barclays expects Best Buy to report Q2 EPS of 13c vs. consensus of 12c and continues to see upside to share driven by recent changes, the Microsoft partnership to create Windows stores within a store, cost cuts, and topline growth. Shares are Overweight rated.

$EBAY eBay July SSS growth appears to have accelerated, says JMP Securities
JMP Securities believes that Channel Advisor’s July same-store sales data suggests that eBay's growth accelerated to 20.4% last month. The firm is encouraged by the data and thinks it could indicate that the company's back to school results will improve. The firm reiterates a $65 price target and Buy rating on the stock.

$CREE Cree downgraded to Neutral from Buy at DA Davidson
DA Davidson downgraded CREE to reflect slower than expected margin expansion and revenue growth following the Q2 report and disappointing guidance. Price target lowered to $65 from $79.

$SINA SINA price target raised to $97 from $67.80 at Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank raised its price target for SINA following the company's better than expected Q2 results and keeps a Buy rating on the stock. Note shares were upgraded this morning at Citigroup to Buy from Sell

$SINA SINA upgraded to Buy from Sell at Citigroup
Citigroup upgraded SINA two notches to Buy from Sell and raised its price target for shares to $96 from $35. Citi believes SINA is experiencing financial momentum due to its partnership with Alibaba and Weibo earnings visibility. SINA shares closed yesterday up 3% to $82.90

Trades I am looking at for today:

DE $85 calls .65
TSLA $149 calls $.99

$TLT $TMV Bonds Preparing For More Losses

I noted on Monday before the bell that I felt $TLT puts would be a great trade this week. In my possible trade section I listed the $TLT $107 weekly puts at a price of $.30. They currently trade for over $2.00 with a high of $2.10 on the day. I did not enter this trade. Instead I entered the $106 puts at $.19. I posted such in the chat room and private twitter. At that stage those options dropped to $.16 x $.18 offering traders the chance to get in at an even cheaper price. Today those options hit a high of $1.24.

I think we could still in the early innings of a 9 inning game. The last ballgame we had at optionmillionaires starred the Goldfingers. The Market Pros smoked the Goldfingers in a massive route that saw $GLD and $GDX drop significantly creating massive profits. This time around the James Bonds are poised to get crushed by the Vigilantes.

The decline has been rather orderly recently for $TLT, and we've seen some rallies that have perhaps swayed the opinion of many. I'm not sure there is a consensus on were Bonds are heading short term, which is why I am confident that the next move lower is right upon us.

If I did not know what $TLT represented and just looked at it from a chart perspective, the chart looks very weak. It also is right at the breaking point. The move lower will be reminiscent of the drop $GLD and $SLV saw earlier this year. I see a rather quick decline to the $100 level coming. I don't think $TLT will find a bottom until it runs into multi-year support at $80. That move will take some time and there will be many sharp rallies along the way, but one thing is clear. Bonds are not the place to be anymore. You could also utilize $TMV the 3x 20 year bond bear to take advantage of this move, but just be aware the risks associated with the leveraged ETF's.

I still like October puts but may look for September puts. The $101 strike is at $.61. I will let you know in the chat room if I get them. Good luck.

tlt89