All posts by uranium-pinto-beans

A Greek Comedy

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The Ancient Greek Comedy provided a break from reality, which is exactly what is currently being negotiated for Greece.... another break from reality.  Years of poor fiscal policy have led to debt levels that are impossible to service.  The reality is if Greece was a large corporation it would have done the obvious and filed for bankruptcy in 2011, and in 2015  we would be talking about the amazing Greece recovery, not how many more billions of Euro's they need just to survive the week.

In August of 2012 I noted just how adept Europeans are at soccer:

Who are the ones that will ultimately foot the bill for Draghi and the ECB's actions?  All those in the Eurozone, even the countries who have their house in order, such as Germany.  Bailouts and money printing do nothing but mask the underlying rot.  It prolongs the inevitable.

Give the central banks around the world a round of applause.  If can kicking were and Olympic event they would surely be gold medal winners.

We find ourselves yet again at another can kicking moment. 

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Wednesday Morning Reads – 2/11/15

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U.S. stock-index futures were little changed after equities reached their highest level this year as investors await the outcome of a meeting between Greece and its creditors.

Germany is maintaining Greece must comply with its bailout terms, while Greece is trying to drum up support for a 10 billion-euro ($11.3 billion) bridge plan to stave off a funding crunch and buy time to win an easing in austerity terms. Any deal would require a softening of Germany’s stance.

Here is what I am reading this morning:

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Someone is Betting Big That This Stock Will Fall

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It started two hours after the market opened and it stopped around lunch time.  In the span of an hour someone was going coo coo for Cocoa puts.  Spoiler alert... they weren't buying puts on Cocoa, but they were going coo coo,  as in hitting the ask with seemingly reckless abandon.  Patience was not a virtue for this put buyer.  With the spread at bid $.15 ask $.60 the buyer was picking up all he/she could handle at $.60.  These options expire in March and up to today had zero open interest.  No one wanted to buy these puts, and no one wanted to sell them.

All together someone bought more than $240,000 of far out of the money options, in a bet on significant downside within the next month.  This trade brings back memories of the $LNCO trade in January 2013.  A giant unusual option trade that made little sense at the time ended up making the trader millions of dollars.

Is that what we will see with this unusual trade?

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