Is The Top Finally Here?

We headed into this weekend at fresh all time record highs.  Again, I see more trolling of the FED than I do celebrating.  While the bears like to compare today, yesterday, last month, last year, two years ago, three years ago.... to 1987, 2000, 2007 and every other date of impending market calamityI'm the idiot that thinks it is different this time......

Of course with record highs all around, save those stubborn small caps, that have yet, according to the bears,  to confirm this rally,  we are getting more of the same market collapse articles.  The VIX is ready to rocket.   From many of the same people who for the last 5+ years have written nothing but negative articles about the market.  Not one positive article.

What's different this time around?  Aside from the fact that the Central Banks have opened the Pandoras Box,  I don't think we have the same participation as we did in 2000 and 2007.  Twice bitten twice shy.  And for those who were around for just 2007/2008... once bitten twice shy.

If you took a survey, I'd imagine most this the stock market is or has already run out of gas.  That gains from here on out are going to be muted, if there are even any gains left to be had!

We've been here before.  Buying the all time highs is not easy to wrap your mind around.  But its worked.  And its been working for 6+ years.

Buying The All Time Highs

"Respected" and " widely" followed  bloggers warn of imminent market calamity on a daily basis.  Moving their life size red down arrows to the right as the market rallies.   Adjusting their bearish chart formations as stocks hit new record high after new record high.  Pounding their chests when their adjusted trendlines finally confirm their 10 years of bearishness.  And then readjusting them as the market resumes its upward trajectory.

Frequently cited on  Marketwatch, CNBC, Zerohedge, and other financial media sites...  John Hussman in 2013 said the fat lady was singing.   A market crash was imminent.   He said at the time  the market had AT MOST another 5% left in the tank.  5% or less until we were going to see a 2007, 2000, 1987 market collapse!

The chart speaks for itself...

Stunning really.


Is there a word worse than wrong?

And yet 6+ years and 150% of upside late,  Hussman is still at it.  Scaring the crap out of everyone.

And the irony is, the bears claim this market has been the easiest market to be long.... ever.  It's been so easy buying stocks... yet these same bears spend their days scaring the shit out of everyone with bearish, fear mongering articles about imminent market crashes of epic proportions.

Look at his recent articles....

Fear Mongering at its finest.  Every single article attempts to scare the investor out of the stock market, with the caveat of the very tiny chance that prices just may avert the 99% odds of complete destruction and head higher instead.

You can't say the last ten years has been the easiest stock market to be long - while your busy publishing   bearish, fear mongering articles every step of the way.

And yet that's what these bears do.  Calling the market a giant BULL trap when in reality these bears have far more experience getting trapped than the bulls do.

More Bull Traps

I'm off the soap box.

I do think the bears will be out pounding their chests yet again.   Highlighting how years of adjusting their bearish chart trend-lines has finally led to that market collapse they have seen coming since SPX 666.

Confirmation that the big debt bubble that only they know about, us mindless bulls are too dumb to even know what debt is, we just buy stocks, has finally started to pop.

Us dumb bulls who have had such an easy time being long this bull market that they thought was going to crash every day since 2009 yet were somehow long some of it, and out of it the rest of the time, and/or were making money hand over fist those days when the market was dropping just as they expected it too the other 2,000+ days it didn't.....

.....I think I'll stop there.

Is the top in?

I've covered this quite a few times.

Has the Market Topped?

Spotting The Top

Do I think the top is in?


I think we will hit more record highs this year.  Mind you even in January of this year when the ink wasn't even dry yet on the Bull Trap articles and the $SPY was at $250, I said $SPY $300 was coming later this year.   We closed at $302 on Friday.  A new all time record high.

What a Fake bull market!

What Happens When This Myth Bull Market Gets Real?

Have we seen the highs for the short to medium term?

I think there is a good chance the highs we saw this past Friday could be the highs for the summer.

Long term S&P500 futures chart....  looks like the market is running up into resistance.

and an even more distinct perspective of the SP500 showing a possible long term mega phone pattern:

The Nasdaq futures chart is the only one that looks like its breaking out.  And perhaps it will be tech that leads us higher.

And small caps remain stuck in the middle.

With the FED coming up this week, along with more earnings reports, and China/U.S. trade drama, I could see the market at least taking a pause this week, if not a pull back.

The question is.... has the market finished pricing in the likely rate cuts from the FED.  And if so, will earnings be enough to propel the stock market higher?

I think there is a good chance the FED decision, especially if its just a .25% could trigger some profit taking.

and always great data from urbancarmel - this came on Friday

So.... do I think the top is in?

No.  However I think this week and over the short term, we could see a nice little correction, that once again will morph into a nice buying opportunity for stocks.

At some point, when interest rates make the massive debt bubble unserviceable , we will get a nasty pull back.   However with interest rates to remain lower for longer, the story remains the same,.. although we are clearly closer to the end of the book then we were in 2013.


Known to most as Uranium Pinto Beans, Jason has more than 15 years under his belt of trading stocks, options and currencies. His expertise primarily lies in chart analysis, and he has a strong eye for undervalued stock. Because he’s got the ability to identify great risk/reward trades he usually enjoys taking the path less traveled and reaping the benefits from the adventure.

He is a co-founder of Option Millionaires, and he is best known for his weekly webinars with Scott, as well as his high level training webinars and charts found in the forums.

More Posts by UPB: View All | Private Twitter Feed: Access Now! (For Diamond Members)