I wanted to follow up on a video I recorded about $AAPL this weekend with the stock at $440. $AAPL is one of the most beloved and hated stocks right now. The stock had a ferocious rally from late 2011 until it topped out in September of 2012 at just over $700 a share. It then suffered a rather precipitous fall to under $380 a share in May. That low has held so far, but have we seen the lows for $AAPL or are more declines on the way. Can $AAPL recover the glitz and glitter it had in 2012 when it rose almost 100% or is the stock the next $MSFT or $CSCO, set to suffer years of anemic growth and meager gains?
Here is my video from this weekend, just in case you haven't seen it. http://stks.co/rM6v I quickly highlighted why I think $AAPL could be back at new all time highs before the year is through. I know its a very bold prediction but I think it is very possible.
I think $AAPL is just breaking out of an almost 10 month consolidation phase. The stock had a similar phase in 2007/2008 when the stock fell to the $70's and then rallied to over $700 a share. This phase brought $AAPL to $380 and I think the next rally, which could last several years, will bring the stock to new all time highs this year and over $1,000 a year or two from now. That's assuming the financial world doesn't collapse again before then.
The chart below shows the consolidation phase ending in 2008 (the blue circle) and the similar consolidation phase $AAPL is just about broken out of (blue circle). The green circle represents the type of short term rally that I think awaits $AAPL, its shareholders, and its CALL buyers.
For the next few months I am looking for a move like the one we saw in the winter and early spring of 2012 (the chart below covers that move). During that time $AAPL rallied some $200. That would put $AAPL back near its all time highs, a target that I think could get broken before years end.