Tag Archives: Watchlist

1-2-2013 Watchlist

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Like I said Monday, all is well for 2013! The Fiscal Bluff has been averted and the markets are not tanking as most pundits predicted/warned. What a joke the market is. All the big money was away Friday, as retail sold the markets off at the end of the day and in the afterhours on low volume. Then Monday the big money comes back and the market ramps higher all day, even surprising myself somewhat. All the folks betting on fear via the vix and buying puts, were screwed, and are waking up today with a kick in the ‘you know what’

 

As I write this, the futures are up nearly 2% and the SPY is getting close to the Dec 19th high of 145.57 and only a stone throw away from 4 year highs. It would be hard for me to imagine the market ramping even higher today, but anything is possible. I will be a bit wary and will probably stick to my core holdings at the open.

 

I will have a write-up on my top 3 picks for January sometime today. One of them is CALL and I wrote about her last night: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/the-call-to-start-2013/

 

Check out the week ahead with UPB and myself last night : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/showthread.php/206-The-Week-Ahead-with-UPB-and-JImmy-1-1-13?p=387#post387

 

Analysts seem to be back finally after a 5 day hiatus. Here are some of the Up and Downgrades for today:

 

U.S. Steel upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse

Credit Suisse believes U.S. Steel's earnings are at a trough and that the company will benefit from improving auto sales, a potential recovery in Tubular results, and the Fiscal Cliff resolution. Price target raised to $30 from $20

 

(LNKD)

LinkedIn downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays

Barclays downgraded Linkedin based on valuation. Price target remains $125.

 

Bank of America added to Conviction Buy List at Evercore

Shares are Overweight rated.

 

(BIDU+)

Qihoo search monetization to challenge Baidu, says Citigroup

Citigroup says that on December 31, Qihoo (QIHU) started to place paid links next to its natural search results, indicating the start of the company's search monetizing. Citi thinks Qihoo's monetization could expand its search market share in 2013, presenting possible downside risks to Baidu's (BIDU) dominance. Citi keeps a Sell rating on Biadu with a $95.10 price target.

 

(TRIP+)

TripAdvisor price target raised to $50 from $44 at Stifel Nicolaus

Stifel Nicolaus raised its target on TripAdvisor (TRIP) as the firm believes that recent acquisitions of other travel metasearch sites illustrate the high value of TripAdvisor. The firm believes that the risk posed to TripAdvisor by Google (GOOG) is overblown, and it views Liberty Interactive's (LINTA) decision to increase its stake in TripAdvisor as a vote of confidence in that company which removes the overhang of a potential large sale. The firm maintains a Buy rating on TripAdvisor.

 

 

I am not playing any of those, but may help in your trading today.

 

Here are a few of the strikes I am look at for the open:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
CALL CALL $20.00 JAN 0.45 0.45
MAKO CALL $15.00 JAN 0.20 0.25
MOS CALL $62.50 JAN 0.19 0.25

 

 

Again, you need to be very careful drinking the kool-aid on some of these, as the premiums will probably decline after the open and you will be in the red even when the stock is up. I have a feeling we fade a bit the rest of the day. The market is near the top end, and will need another day or two of consolidation before we head over the 146 area on the SPY. I maybe wrong, but thats what I a playing for.

 

Stocks like SODA, MAKO, and CALL allow you to bank gains irregardless of the overall market, which is why i like them for Jan and the start of 2013.

 

Lets have a great trading day and see you in the chatroom!

 

- Jimmybob

12-31 Watchlist

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Fridays close, and todays open is a great example how this market works now-a-days, and how the retail traders is always screwed. If you had bought puts or went short on the fiscal cliff fiasco and were holding them into the weekend, you would have been ecstatic after seeing the mayhem after hours friday. The VIX was up huge, and the SPY was down another 1% after it looked like a deal would not be made as Obama was “holding tight” on his tax the rich mantra.

Then over the weekend all I see are reports saying “major impasse” on cliff negotiations and negative chatter. Again, all this points to carnage come Monday, yet here we are 45 minutes before the open, and the market has recouped all the losses from friday after hours, and may head higher here at the open.

 

All the folks holding puts over the weekend for the sure fire winners, are now staring at theta burn. Makes no sense, but again I think this cliff BS is so over worked now, that we would be 10-15% lower from here if the cliff posed a “CLIFF’ to the economy. Unless we get some unforeseen event, like a US credit downgrade, all will be well to start 2013.

 

Not many upgrades or market catalysts today, so maybe a quiet trading session and will look to add one or two positions and wait for wednesday. Facebook did garner attention over the weekend and this morning with 2 bullish upgrades:

 

 

(FB)

Facebook price target raised to $31 from $26 at Stifel Nicolaus

Stifel Nicolaus raised its price target on Facebook as the firm expects the stock to be boosted by index fund purchasing, upcoming monetization initiatives, and higher ARPU. The firm expects the company's earnings to beat expectations and it maintains a Buy rating.

 

Follow-up: Facebook upgraded to Outperform from Underperform at BMO Capital

BMO Capital reinstated coverage on Facebook and upgraded shares two notches to Outperform from Underperform. The analyst is positive on Facebook's re-acceleration in ad spending for both mobile and video ads, increased native monetization of content, and notes positive feedback for Costume Audiences. Price target raised to $32 from $15.

 

FB article in WSJ : http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323635504578211581469158650.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

 

AAPL also had positive press in Barrons this weekend and is looking good pre-market.

 

I still love SODA as my favorite call position. I am holding 20/22.50 CALL calls and will add more if they are cheap at the open. I never added SOHU calls last week as I had posted in my watchlist, but will get some at the open today. CHINA PMI highest since May 11, so China ADR’s may get a nice bid today again: http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2012/12/30/business/30reuters-china-pmi-hsbc-final.html?src=busln&_r=0

 

Here are the strikes im watching:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price
CALL CALL $20.00 JAN 0.45
SOHU CALL $52.50 JAN 0.25
SOHU CALL $50.00 JAN 0.55

 

 

UPB will be dong the year ahead tomorrow night (New Years Day). Link will be posted here https://www.optionmillionaires.com/live-event-classes-jtv/

 

Lets have a great last day of 2012 and HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE!!

- Jimmybob

12-28 Watchlist

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It seemed like a very boring week, although the market did have some nice moves yesterday. If you look at the S&P and Dow volume the last 2 days, you would see less then average volume, and I think that continues today as most folks are out for the week. I was talking to UPB yesterday, and we were recalling a weekend set up in 2011 when the euro debt crisis was coming to a head. Europe had a deal during the wekend and the futures were up 4%+ come monday. Not saying that happens this weekend, but it is possible. If the big money thought the fiscal cliff was truly a cliff, we would be 10-15% off from where we are today. The only thing that would cause a large sell-off would be an event not factored in, like a U.S. debt downgrade or something along those lines.

Either way, futures were hitting new lows this morning and have since started to melt higher here. I will be playing for a higher close, but not sure what I will be playing today with these moves not being enough to make money on the call/puts.

There were no meaningful analyst changes today, and like i said Monday, looks like they all took off this week. The WSJ keeps writing about Japan and the pending currency wars that are coming in 2013. Have to figure how to play that in the next week or so.

CALL announced CEO change and revised guidance higher for Q4. Will be playing calls on it at the open. CALL has a 12 mil float and 5.9 mi shares are short, figure she ramps back over $20 in short order. Still love SODA here and grabbed more Jan 50 calls yesterday. I sold my JAN 100 MON calls yesterday and will look to get back in soon.

Dont forget we have another short week as the markets are closed New years day.

Here are the strikes I am looking at today:

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price
CALL CALL $20.00 JAN 0.30
CALL CALL $22.50 JAN 0.10
PCLN CALL $615.00 WEEKLY NA
AAPL CALL $515.00 WEEKLY NA

 

See most of you in chat!

- Jimmybob

12-27 Watchlist

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Seems like the spectre of the worst holiday shopping season since 2008 took hold mid-way through the day yesterday, as the market rolled over. The market recovered slightly but the SPY was still down nearly .50% and is nearing the 50dma of 140.69. I dont think we get there, and think the slight fade in the markets is healthy for the next leg to $150. Jobless claims came in within expectations so should be a non-factor today. Headlines still continue to be about Japan and it's new fiscal policy it will be employing with the new regime.

While looking over charts this morning, I came across the same pattern with most of the China ADR's like SOHU, BIDU, CTRP, SINA, and YOKU. All of those look to be breaking out in a big way and think I may look at some calls on SOHU and possibly SINA. (Grabbed some of the 50s on SINA yesterday @ .25 after it failed to break 46).

Again today there are few analyst changes and looks like folks are on vacation. Here are a few that caught my eye:

(CSTR)Coinstar checks indicate strong RB kiosks rentals, says Northland Securities

Northland's checks indicate RB kiosks rental activity has improved from Q3 lows and that last week was one of the strongest since early July. The firm continues to believe RB rental levels are improving in 2H Q4 and are up 15.9% compared to October. Shares are Outperform rated with a $62 price target.

(DPZ)Domino's Pizza price target raised to $50 from $44 at Oppenheimer

Oppenheimer increased its target on Domino's Pizza as the firm thinks the company could benefit from easing U.S. comps, accelerating international profits, and higher-than-expected share repurchases. The firm maintains an Outperform rating on the stock

I still like the AGS and playing MOS 47.50 and MON 100 calls. SODA continues to be my favorite stock and will be for the foreseeable future. Here are some positions I am looking at for the open:

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price
SOHU CALL $50.00 JAN 0.30
SINA CALL $50.00 WKLY 0.20

 

Lets have a great trading day!

- Jimmybob

 

12-26 Watchlist

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Hope folks had a Merry Christmas and enjoyed the off day with their friends and family. We still have 4 more trading days to go in 2012! This morning seems rather quiet with no major market moving news pieces. There we this article in the WSJ that spoke of the worst holiday shopping season since 2008 Holiday Sales : http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323291704578201703984825458.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

 

It does not look to be having an impact on the retail stocks as most are unchanged. Japan elected in the new Prime Minister and the Nikkei responded with another 1.5% gain. There have been talks of trillions of dollars used to weaken the Yen in an attempt to jumpstart the economy. Should be interesting stories for the first part of 2013.

 

Not many analyst changes this morning, and only one stood out(not really a change just a reiteration)

 

(MOS)

Mosaic fundamentals near a bottom, says Goldman

Goldman recommends buying Mosaic on any weakness following it Q2 report on January 4. The firm believes challenging fundamentals are understood by investors and that 2013 has visible catalysts that include new China/India contracts in Q1 and margin opportunities in Phosphates. Shares are Buy rated with a $68 price target.

 

 

There were 2 articles out on China internet with the second being SINA denying Alibaba stake(not good for SINA)

 

SINA : http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2012-12/25/content_16054264.htm

 

China news: http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2012/12/26/business/26reuters-china-economy-survey.html?src=busln&_r=0

 

HLF is looking to bounce today but I wont be playing it now.

 

Here is a nice read on SODA : http://news.investors.com/business-the-new-america/122412-638189-sodastream-green-commercial-slams-plastic-bottle.htm?p=3

 

Not many stick out pre-market today and will be cautious for now. Still like NKE calls, SINA puts, SODA calls. Here are the ones i am looking at this morning at open:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price
MON CALL $100.00 JAN 0.24
MOS CALL $57.50 weekly 0.06
SODA CALL $55.00 FEB 0.50

 

 

MOS calls are very risky and will wait for $56 is held before considering. Will look to add more $SODA calls as I think this heads over $45 next few days.

 

Lets have a great trading day!

 

- Jimmybob