Tag Archives: mako

1-9-2013 Watchlist

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Yesterday was a somewhat lackluster day with a few movers. SHLD was a nice play on the put side at the open, and HLF ramped higher during the day on the calls side. Alcoa kicked off the official start to earning season by posting a profit and decent numbers. Futures are green and looks like we have a nice day today.

 

Skulcandy is up on a piece on marketwatch: SKUL possible Takeover? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-09/skullcandy-turns-takeover-target-after-66-drop-real-m-a.html

 

Tons of analyst upgrades/downgrades and target changes with AMZN continuing to get bumped up with 3 changes today:

 

(AMZN)

Amazon.com coverage assumed with a Buy at Goldman

Target $315.

 

(AMZN)

Amazon.com price target raised to $300 from $274 at BofA/Merrill

BofA/Merrill expects Amazon's eCommerce gains to drive shares despite continued margin disappointments. Shares are Buy rated.

 

(AMZN)

Amazon.com price target raised to $310 from $260 at Benchmark Co.

Benchmark Co. raised its price target for Amazon.com shares on expectations increasing digital sales and strong 3P sales could drive better than expected operating leverage in Q4 and 2013. The firm keeps a Buy rating on the stock.

 

(RRGB)

Red Robin upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley upgraded Red Robin due to top line initiatives that should help its comp forecast.

 

(RL)

Ralph Lauren upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie

Macquarie upgraded Ralph Lauren based on expectations for accelerating sales trends, easing currency headwinds, improving gross margins, and reduced investment spending, among other reasons. Price target is $190.

 

(AAPL+)

Apple may have shipped 46M+ iPhones in December quarter, says RBC Capital

After AT&T (T) reported that it sold a record 10M+ smartphones last quarter, RBC Capital believes that AT&T's announcement and its additional statements suggest that Apple shipped 46M+ iPhones in its December quarter. The firm maintains a $725 price target and Outperform rating on Apple

 

MA)

MasterCard upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman

Goldman upgraded MasterCard based on higher transaction growth estimates, and strong credit and international volumes. Price target raised to $575 from $500

 

Visa upgraded to Conviction Buy from Buy at Goldman

Goldman added Visa to its Conviction Buy List and named it a top pick for 2013 given its leading position in payments, increased confidence in long-term transaction volume, and strong capital allocation prospects. Price target raised to $188 from $160

 

Today is the last day before EX-DIVY for BPT so I will be getting out of most my calls today, hoping it ramps over $80. Grabbed more $CALL calls yesterday and kicking myself for not getting any more SODA as the stock fell into the 45s and bounces near 47 to end the day. Would expect it to clear 48 again today.

 

Visa and Mastercard were upgraded at Goldman with Visa going on the conviction buy list. Been a heck of a run for both and looks like the runs continue today.

 

FB is having an event next week and invited press: http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2013/01/08/facebook-issues-mystery-press-invitation/?mod=WSJBlog

 

Here are the strikes I like today:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price
SKUL CALL $8.00 FEB 0.30
RL CALL $170.00 JAN 0.55

 

 

Small list but like what I am holding right now.  Lets have a great day!

 

- JImmybob

1-7-2013 Watchlist

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Seems like quite a bit of activity this morning on the analyst side with tons of new initiations and upgrades to include my favorite SODA. Seems analysts starting to take that stock serious. All the banks are higher once again this morning with BAC also announcing a settlement with Fannie Mae: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/b-of-a-selltes-with-fannie-for-about-10-billion-2013-01-07 . It is getting received well from the market and BAC is up 3% PM. We spoke about it last night, but BANKs maybe continue to move higher on news that they will have 2 more years to comply with Dodd-Frank : http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2013/01/04/1400491/banks-delay-risky-trade-rule/?mobile=nc As well as the prospect of higher interest rates coming sooner rather then later. Not playing any, as I usually don’t do well trading the banks, but JPM, GS, BAC, WFC, and others may outperform the market here in January.

 

The Week Ahead Webinar from last night will be uploaded and available in the forums later today.

 

Also remember the unofficial start of earnings season is tomorrow with Alcoa reporting.

 

Here are some of the upgrades that I am watching from this morning:

 

(AMZN)

Amazon.com upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley believes Amazon.com's fulfillment network is under-appreciated and will allow the company to drive share gains and its international opportunity. Price target is $325.

 

SodaStream initiated with an Overweight at Barclays

Target $55.

 

(UA)

Under Armour downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley downgraded Under Armour to reflect reduced margin upside and potential margin pressure.

 

(BIDU)

Baidu downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays

Barclays downgraded Baidu based on earnings risk near-term from iQiyi consolidation, higher TAC costs, and increased R&D, lack of visibility on its mobile strategy, and Qihoo search monetization which will increase traffic fees. Price target lowered to $113 from $137.

 

 

News that may move NFLX this morning:

 

(NFLX+)

Netflix, Warner Bros. sign 2012-2013 network slate deal 

Netflix (NFLX) and Warner Bros. Television Group (TWX) announced a licensing agreement allowing U.S. Netflix members to enjoy complete previous seasons of addictive serialized dramas produced by Warner Bros. for top broadcast and cable networks.

 

Futures are slightly lower here and would expect the market to hold to small losses or small gains throughout the day.

 

I will have my thoughts on Gold and Silver this week, as I think both are headed lower(which actually makes no sense but I will explain)

 

Here are the strikes I am watching for open:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
MAKO CALL $15.00 JAN 0.15 0.15
NFLX CALL $105.00 Weekly 0.36 0.40
BPT CALL $80.00 JAN 0.30 0.30
SAM CALL $155.00 FEB 0.65 0.65

 

 

 

Rarely average down but think MAKO hit a bottom friday and will try for some $15 calls @ .15. NFLX had WB news this morning may help push above top end, think $100+ coming very soon.

Still love BPT and may add to my $80 calls if they are still .25 x .30 at open. Have  SAM FEB 155s already and may do what I am doing with MAKO.

 

Have a great trading day!

 

- Jimmybob

1-3-2013 Watchlist

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What an amazingly strong trading session yesterday, as the market gapped at the open, faded a bit then ramped hard into the close to finish at the high of the day. The SPY closed over $146 and we are now a stone throws away from 4 year highs at $148.11. Still sticking to my $150 on the SPY short term, and would think we may get it before January is out. The $PY chart looks over extended, as do most charts from Monday and Wednesdays market rampage.

I wont be buying puts, but I will be a little more cautious on the call side the next few days. Obviously one of the reasons I like SODA, CALL, and MAKO for January is that they tend to ignore the overall market and can trade up on a down day.

We did have ADP number out this morning that beat expectations by a wide margins, and futures are now flat after being down overnight and this morning. It also looks like Analysts are back to work and catching up as there were many upgrades/downgrades this morning.

Look like Stern Agee and JMP Securities upgraded every financial stock.

PCLN was upgraded at BAC.

MLNX lowered revenue guidance substantially and is down 16% pre-market.

Same Store Sale numbers are out for retailers. The numbers were expected to be weak. Looks like ROST, COST, TGT were some of the winners. M lowered guidance but is hanging in on better DEC #’s.

Here are some of the analyst Upgrades/Downgrades:

 

(PCLN)

priceline.com upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill

BofA/Merrill upgraded priceline.com (PCLN) due to strong growth in international, expectations for a modest European recovery in 2H 2013, Kayak acquisition opportunities, and potential earnings upside vs. Expedia (EXPE). Price target raised to $770 from $690.

 

 

(BAC)

Bank of America upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at JMP Securities

JMP Securities upgraded several names in the Capital Markets space following the partial fiscal cliff resolution. The firm believes earnings from the large banks should now be better and upgraded shares of Bank of America to Market Perform.

 

 

Will be playing a few again today. Still love $SODA and will add any dips. Here are the strikes I am looking at:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price
CALL CALL $22.50 JAN 0.15
BPT CALL $80.00 JAN 0.15
WYNN CALL $120.00 Weekly 0.34

 

 

 

Already have BPT 75 calls from yesterday and will add some 80s if it looks like the reversal continues. Stock has a 13%+ divy yield and has been beaten down into submission. If you followed the watchlist and chatroom, you know I have been waiting for this bounce for a few weeks. Think CALL continues its move and will add more 22.50s to my stockpile while they are still .15. CALL will go over $20 and it will allow me to lock some of the 20 calls in. WYNN chart looks very toppy but think it surges over $120 sometime today, already have 120 calls and may look to add more at the open.

 

As always stay tuned in chat and twitter for updates. In 2013 I will try to give more transparency around exit strategies as most times buying is the easy part, and finding a place to sell is the hard part.

 

Lets have a great day 2 in 2013!

 

- Jimmybob

1-2-2013 Watchlist

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Like I said Monday, all is well for 2013! The Fiscal Bluff has been averted and the markets are not tanking as most pundits predicted/warned. What a joke the market is. All the big money was away Friday, as retail sold the markets off at the end of the day and in the afterhours on low volume. Then Monday the big money comes back and the market ramps higher all day, even surprising myself somewhat. All the folks betting on fear via the vix and buying puts, were screwed, and are waking up today with a kick in the ‘you know what’

 

As I write this, the futures are up nearly 2% and the SPY is getting close to the Dec 19th high of 145.57 and only a stone throw away from 4 year highs. It would be hard for me to imagine the market ramping even higher today, but anything is possible. I will be a bit wary and will probably stick to my core holdings at the open.

 

I will have a write-up on my top 3 picks for January sometime today. One of them is CALL and I wrote about her last night: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/the-call-to-start-2013/

 

Check out the week ahead with UPB and myself last night : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/showthread.php/206-The-Week-Ahead-with-UPB-and-JImmy-1-1-13?p=387#post387

 

Analysts seem to be back finally after a 5 day hiatus. Here are some of the Up and Downgrades for today:

 

U.S. Steel upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse

Credit Suisse believes U.S. Steel's earnings are at a trough and that the company will benefit from improving auto sales, a potential recovery in Tubular results, and the Fiscal Cliff resolution. Price target raised to $30 from $20

 

(LNKD)

LinkedIn downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays

Barclays downgraded Linkedin based on valuation. Price target remains $125.

 

Bank of America added to Conviction Buy List at Evercore

Shares are Overweight rated.

 

(BIDU+)

Qihoo search monetization to challenge Baidu, says Citigroup

Citigroup says that on December 31, Qihoo (QIHU) started to place paid links next to its natural search results, indicating the start of the company's search monetizing. Citi thinks Qihoo's monetization could expand its search market share in 2013, presenting possible downside risks to Baidu's (BIDU) dominance. Citi keeps a Sell rating on Biadu with a $95.10 price target.

 

(TRIP+)

TripAdvisor price target raised to $50 from $44 at Stifel Nicolaus

Stifel Nicolaus raised its target on TripAdvisor (TRIP) as the firm believes that recent acquisitions of other travel metasearch sites illustrate the high value of TripAdvisor. The firm believes that the risk posed to TripAdvisor by Google (GOOG) is overblown, and it views Liberty Interactive's (LINTA) decision to increase its stake in TripAdvisor as a vote of confidence in that company which removes the overhang of a potential large sale. The firm maintains a Buy rating on TripAdvisor.

 

 

I am not playing any of those, but may help in your trading today.

 

Here are a few of the strikes I am look at for the open:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
CALL CALL $20.00 JAN 0.45 0.45
MAKO CALL $15.00 JAN 0.20 0.25
MOS CALL $62.50 JAN 0.19 0.25

 

 

Again, you need to be very careful drinking the kool-aid on some of these, as the premiums will probably decline after the open and you will be in the red even when the stock is up. I have a feeling we fade a bit the rest of the day. The market is near the top end, and will need another day or two of consolidation before we head over the 146 area on the SPY. I maybe wrong, but thats what I a playing for.

 

Stocks like SODA, MAKO, and CALL allow you to bank gains irregardless of the overall market, which is why i like them for Jan and the start of 2013.

 

Lets have a great trading day and see you in the chatroom!

 

- Jimmybob

12-20 Watchlist

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What started off as a solid green day, ended deep in the red, as folks used the fiscal cliff to take profits. I said it yesterday in the watchlist, that this rally has even surprised me. Days like yesterday can make some folks worry, but if you look at the SPY chart, it looks like a healthy pullback. I still like us higher before the years out, and will keep playing it that way.

 

We had weekly jobless claims rise 17k but GDP was revised up from 2.7 to 3.1%. Should be enough to keep us flat or green today.

 

Yesterdays BBBY earnings play and MLNX bounce not working and my 67.50 C’s on BBBY and 70/72.50 on MLNX will probably expire worthless. SINA 52.50 calls finally started to work yesterday as the ones alerted at .14/.17/.20 hit .70 yesterday before the stock pulled back. I still like that one for $53 before the weeks out.

 

SODA continues to defy gravity, we added JAN 52.50 @ .50 yesterday and will continue to look to add to the warchest. Still holding some SAM 140 calls and added 145s @ .20. Citi started coverage on a bunch of beer compnaies to include SAM this morning. The rating is neutral but it is substantially higher then any other target at $152, so lets see if this puts fire back into the stock.

 

MAKO is the one I will be looking for some calls on at the open. This one has been hot and cold for us, but looks like this could break a few days, and the 17.50 JAN calls are only .15. Piper came out with positive comments this morning so may get some more legs.

 

Here are some of the analyst upgrades/downgrades this morning:

 

(SAM)

Boston Beer initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup

Target $152.

 

(FCX)

Freeport McMoRan upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank upgraded Freeport McMoRan citing the recent pullback in shares and keeps a $40 price target for the name.

 

(BBBY)

Bed Bath & Beyond price target lowered to $65 from $75 at Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank lowered its price target for Bed Bath & Beyond following the company's Q4 results, but maintains a Buy rating on the name. The firm says the quarter was no worse than expected and that consensus estimates were too high.

 

MAKO)

MAKO Surgical survey shows solid utilization trends, says Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray said its survey of existing MAKO Surgical sites indicates continued solid utilization and satisfaction with the Rio robotic arm surgical system. Piper said it has greater conviction in MAKO following the survey and reiterates an Overweight rating on the stock with a $28 price target

 

Here is the options I am watching at the open:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price
MAKO CALL $15.00 weekly 0.05
MAKO CALL $17.50 JAN 0.15
BPT CALL $70.00 weekly 0.20

 

 

It is a short list today, but will post any other trades via the chatroom and twitter feed.

 

Lets have a great day folks!

 

- Jimmybob