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12-12-12 Watchlist

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Yesterday was another exciting day as the market ramped in the morning, only to fade near the eod on cliff jitters. I keep saying, I tune out that noise and will continue to do so. Some great plays yesterday from the watchlist as AIG and FSLR moved nicely. We do have the FOMC announcement in the afternoon and looking for TWIST to come to an end as well as announcement around the amount of purchases by the FED in the coming months. Unless there is some surprise  this should not have a great effect on the market.

Goldman came out with new targets on the ag sector, and MOS looks like it has the best chance on an upgrade to $68. Will look to get some calls at open(courtesy of UPB). I really like FSLR here and think she keeps ramping this week. Here are two bullish pieces out last night: http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20121212PD203.html and http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-12/china-allocates-2-billion-of-solar-subsidies-xinhua-says.html . Grabbed the 31.50 calls @ .39/.42 yesterday and will try for some 32.50s at the open. If you followed the site, then you know I am the biggest bear out there on the solar sector. Right now it looks like its possible for a recovery, and FSLR looks to be the benefactor. Time will tell, but i do think FSLR has plenty of room to run.

Coverage was started on OPEN by JPM, so maybe get another bounce here. Still have 47.50/50C and will look to add some 50s if they are .25/.30. NFLX also upgraded at Morgan Stanley this morning, and maybe worth a short if it holds under 86 at open. Will post in chat if I see anything.

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price
FSLR CALL $32.50 DEC WKLY 0.24
MOS CALL $57.50 DEC WKLY 0.10
OPEN CALL $50.00 DEC 0.25

Lets have a great Wednesday! 12-12-12!!

- jimmybob

12- 11 Watchlist

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Yesterday was a great start to the week with some huge moves in Coal (WLT, ANR), Rare Earth (MCP), and some moves in LNKD, FB, and SHLD. FOMC starts today with the comments tomorrow afternoon, which should not be too much of a factor. The headlines over the Fiscal Bluff seems to be less threatening and I would assume things start to get worked out. Japan is officially in a recession for what its worth! A great article out in the WSJ this morning about the new fiscal tool, CURRENCY WARS! ( http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324024004578171761669892682.html)

We have talked about it for sometime, but with QE being less effective, and with all the central banks using the same tools, it is hard to get an edge. The best way to improve your economy is to encourage exports, and it is hard to to with an overvalued currency. Just something to watch in 2013, as there has already been some issues in regards to CHINA and JAPAN manipulating their currency.

The Govt is selling the rest of their AIG stake @ 32.50 i believe. This is VERY good news even though it sound like it may not be. AIG should be a $60+ stock now, so this removes the overhang. Will look for some weeklies and then some JAN calls in the next day or so to take advantage of the coming ramp on the stock.

I still love OPEN : http://stocktwits.com/message/10940845

I still love SHLD: http://stocktwits.com/message/10938676 

I also still hold all my LNKD calls from yesterday(115/120) - Piper came out and reaffirmed it's $150 PT on LNKD this morning:

(LNKD)

LinkedIn Q4 traffic trends above expectations, says Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray says comScore data indicates LinkedIn's Q4 quarter-to-date traffic and engagement trends are tracking above expectations. The firm reiterates an Overweight rating on the stock with a $150 price target.

You know I hate solar and FSLR, but a nice write up on US solar late last night and think it will push FSLR next day or so : http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-11/u-s-solar-surges-44-in-third-quarter-driven-by-rooftops.html

Obviously will try and catch the COAL run day 2, as I think WLT could head to $40+ in the coming days.

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price
AIG CALL $34.50 DEC WKLY 0.15
FSLR CALL $31.00 DEC WKLY 0.46
SHLD CALL $47.00 DEC WKLY 0.33
WLT CALL $45.00 DEC 0.36

There will be a text alert sometime this week so stay tuned! Lets have a great trading day!

- Jimmybob

8-15 Watchlist from JImmybob

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Folks,

Futures are down .20% right now.. not too bad. The EURO is taking it on the chin this morning, but folks have been shaking off any bad news lately and I think that continue till the big money comes back in september (the worst performing month over the last 25 years).

Quite a few earnings plays today with ANF this morning. Will they bounce like FOSL? Also have Target, Deere, and Staples.

I don't have a position in either and will probably not look for one today. I will not be around too much due to the 2k challenge taking up quite a bit of my time and resources, and to  remain focused. You can definitely send and email to optionmillionaires@gmail.com and I will respond as soon as I can. Here are some links to my live Q and A yesterday:

http://www.livestream.com/optionmillionairescom/video?clipId=pla_1acf6e4a-c26a-497c-82b5-7e4e59f796c1

http://www.livestream.com/optionmillionairescom/video?clipId=pla_8decfa6c-2923-4057-907f-7c3261c1f2d5

Right now I have SHLD 62.50 calls and NFLX 67.50 calls. I also have the SINA 60 calls.

I think SINA could be a nice play if they show signs of monetizing their subscriber base. Could see a $15-20% move. Will be holding my $60 calls into the earnings after the close.

NFLX is up 7 of the last 8 trading days, but chart still shows some room. Grabbed the $67.50 calls for a possible continuation move on the BAC upgrade yesterday. Think those calls may double. Have a limit to sell half @ .50.

SHLD has earnings tomorrow before the bell and I think the risk for more downside is outweighed by the reward for some serious upside. Grabbed the 62.50 calls yesterday, and think SHLD will see $57 today based on TGT earnings and folks wanting to get in before tomorrow. Will have a limit order in @ 1.10 for the 62.50s. Will look to sell half sometime today.

For those in the 2k challenge, I will probably not be buying any positions today but will be looking to sell off some of the NFLX and SHLD. Details via twitter first if I do and your not a ditto follower.

I keep saying Blink your eyes and we will be over the 4 year highs in April. We are almost there! I think this continues the next few weeks, and playing it accordingly.

Have a great TRADING DAY!

 

- Jimmy

July 6th watchlist

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Days like yesterday can make your week or month as NFLX calls provided some HUGE returns. The market sold off at the open, only to rally mid-day, and fall again end of day. Figured with all the intervention from world banks, we would see a nice ramp up. Time will tell.

 

Todays highly anticipated jobs reports disappointed as folks were expecting 100,000 and we got 80,000. Unemployment rate stayed flat at 8.2% . Again, i think most of this news is somewhat irrelevant as folks will rsay buy equities as bad economic numbers increase the odds of more FED QE.

Today could be a fun day on the weeklies expiring today. Will be looking for some pullback plays:

AAPL – $615 calls for lottos – looked extremely strong past 2 sessions. Will wait for dust to settle at open

SHLD – 62.50 calls paid nice yesterday, will look for another possible position for next week

NFLX – think the hype continues into next week. JULY 110 calls maybe a nice play

GOOG – HATE THIS ONE and said $500, but think folks in the know are bidding her up before earnings. May try some 600 calls today and look for some plays for earnings.

Happy Trading and see you in chat!!

- Jimmybob

NetFlix – Like going to the Buffet with Lobster on the Menu

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We have written about NetFlix (NFLX) quite a few times over the past year, and have shared our somewhat bullish outlook. This stock has had an epic fall from grace that all other growth stories will be compared to going forward. The question to ask is if the growth story is over or are we in Chapter 3 of a novel? Time will tell as this NetFlix story is filled with quite the drama and suspense.

On Tuesday CEO Reed Hastings posted this on his facebook page:

A quick boast about record viewing hours. Not really a 'material' event, so dont think there is a need for an 8-k as the genius's over at CNBC think it warrants. But it was enough to re-ignite the fire under a dying stock. The stock ripped $10 to close at $81.72. It was an amazingly strong rally with no substantial pull-back and huge volume. The one that you like to see if your banking on a multi-day run like we are. We thought NetFlix (NFLX) was on the verge of a rally in mid-june, and looks like we are finally getting it. Why?

Well with the huge subscriber base and international growth still on the horizon, we think NetFlix (NFLX) still has huge growth potential.

Lets do some quick math on the 1 billion viewing hours for June. Last reported numbers were for the 3 months ending with December of last year, when there were a total of 2 billion viewing hours. Thats a 33% increase in viewing hours in June from December. So are folks viewing habits changing so much, that they are watching 33% more programming on NetFlix(NFLX)?

So is NetFlix (NFLX) like a buffet and folks are just stuffing their faces with more macaroni and cheese? Thats what this "5 star rated" ANALyst thinks:

Wedbush analyst Michael Patcher said the increase in viewing time might just lead to an increase in content costs for the Los Gatos, California-based company.

"Netflix is an all you can eat buffet, and if the buffet sees its consumption go up by 50 percent and they don't raise price that is not a good thing," Patcher who has an "underperform" rating on the stock, said.

Yeah, this guy has been bearish on NetFlix (NFLX) and Bullish on Coinstar (CSTR) for sometime. A classic heads I win tails you lose scenario. He's all ready to throw a quick analogy to rationalize his gloom and doom prediction on NetFlix (NFLX). Sorry to hear that Michael, but you have it wrong this time just like your $44 price target on FaceBook (FB). Its not about consumption, but the quality of the consumption. You see cheap a cheap product, we see Lobster.

Your telling me subscribers are watching 33% more content then 6 months ago? I am sure there has been an increase in subscribers viewing hours...a result of smart phone and Ipads, but it's not 33%. June was warmer then average... you think folks sat on their ass to watch T.V. shows? Based on the subscriber numbers, each NetFlix (NFLX) streaming customer would need to watch 10 more hours of NetFlix (NFLX) content in June then in December to get the 33% increase needed for the 1 billion viewing hours.

To me it sounds like there were a heck of a lot of people signing up for service. But what do I know, I am not an ANALyst.

By the way, we have the 85, 90 weekly calls as well as the July 24 105 and 110 calls.

Volume tells the story on NetFlix(NFLX) and we think there will be at least 1-2 more green candles on the chart before any pullback, meaning $90+ sometime on or before Monday.

Happy Trading!!!