Tag Archives: PCLN

June 4, 2013 Watch List

 

After a rocky morning, the market found its footing and closed solidly in the green. There were moments in the morning where it sure looked like the market was going to sell-off in rapid fashion, but $163 seemed to hold well, and the specter of another green tuesday gave stocks support.

Folks are finally figuring out the heads bulls win, tails bears lose environment we have been in for the past 2 years. Yet now they think good news will cause a sell-off, which maybe possible with Fridays Jobs numbers due out for May. It was April’s job numbers that sparked the next leg in the 2013 rally, let’s hope May numbers do not derail it.

 

Today we go for #21. A streak that will probably never be beaten. Here is a great analysis by UPB: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/twenty-one/

 

Futures are slightly green this morning and sure feels like the bulls are going to make it happen today.

 

Gold and Silver are giving back all the gains from yesterday. I spoke about the ISM number yesterday giving more hints of deflation which should spark more selling in commods. The index dropped to 49, the lowest since June of 2009 and shows contraction. I think this is more a function of folks waiting for lower prices, then an actual demand issue. The Fed can drop freshly printed hundreds from 747s all over the US, but if folks put the money under their pillow, inflation will not happen. Same goes with those banks that are not giving out loans...ect.

 

Had Visa(V) on the watchlist this morning on a GS price target raise, and the investor conference on Thursday. Chart looked very nice and figured she would bounce back into the 180s, which she did. Still think she has some legs this week and could break into all-time highs into Thursday. Here is the trade idea sent via text: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/text-trade-idea-from-this-morning-update/ I will not be sending out a text when i close the trade, but they are already a double so would make sense for most to at least lock half in and ride freebies.(Not my cup of tea).

Also, here is UPB’s thouhts on AAPL this week: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/aapl-offering-a-great-trade-set-up-for-june-chart/

 

Hopefully we get a nice steady ramp today on the SPY into the $165-166 range.

 

Here are the analyst changes for today:

 

 

 

Ulta Salon downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman
Goldman downgraded Ulta Salon ahead of expected 2014 investment to strengthen its e-commerce offering. Price target raised to $98 from $93

 

Buffalo Wild Wings removed from Focus Idea List at RW Baird
Baird removed Buffalo Wild Wings from the Focus Idea List due to outperformance. The firm maintains its Outperform rating and would be aggressive buyers in the low $90s. Price target remains $95

 

Cerner coverage resumed with a Buy at Goldman
Target $115

 

Monster Beverage sales accelerate in May, says Goldman
Monster disclosed at its shareholder meeting yesterday that April/May combined gross sales were +9.4%, implying May gross sales growth of 13%, according to Goldman. In addition, U.S. Nielsen c-store data accelerated to +9.7% for the 4 weeks ended May 25 vs. +5.1% for the four weeks ending May 11. The firm expects shares to be up on encouraging May trends and believes 2H 2013 looks attractive for the company given improving international margins and easier comps. Shares are Buy rated

 

TripAdvisor price target raised to $70 from $60 at Macquarie
Macquarie believes TripAdvisor's will benefit from increased OTA competition and that its ongoing roll-out if its user-friendly UI will drive increased traffic on its site. Shares are Outperform rated

 

priceline.com price target raised to $915 from $845 at Macquarie
Macquarie raised priceline.com estimates due to increased confidence in Bookings.com U.S. market share gains. Shares are Outperform rated with a $915 price target, raised from $845

 

CME Group upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo upgraded CME Group on expectations interest rates and equities will add to the company's to growth. The firm raised its price target range for shares to $80-$90 from $55-$65

 

LULU Lululemon to meet or beat high end of guidance, says William Blair
William Blair expects lululemon to meet or beat its Q1 earnings estimate of 30c, which is at the high end of the company's 28c-30c guidance. The firm said its channel checks indicate lululemon's traffic trends were healthy in Q1 despite the shortage of black luon. William Blair continues to like shares of lululemon with an Outperform rating

 

BofA/Merrill expects Under Armour to provide a strong revenue outlook
BofA/Merrill said expectations are high heading into Under Armour's analyst day tomorrow but the company should provide strong revenue outlook of 20-25% for the next three years. Shares are Buy rated with a $68 price target

 

Six Flags price target raised to $80-$83 from $71-$74 at Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo increased its target on Six Flags as the firm believes that the company will benefit from strong initial 2013 season pass sales and higher ticket prices. The firm notes that the stock has a high dividend yield and it keeps an Outperform rating on the shares

 

 

Will be keeping it small today, like i have been for the past few weeks. Only position added yesterday were the V calls. Will look to trade CME calls for the first time in over a year, as well as trying to get into VRA before earnings.

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
VRA CALL $30.00 AUGUST 0..35 0.30
VRA CALL $30.00 JULY 0.20 0.15
CME CALL $72.50 June 0.32 0.35

 

 

 

Lets have a great day!

 

- JB

Two Stocks On the Move

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After doing my normal research over the weekend, and preparing for the Week Ahead Webinar, I came up with my normal "Stocks I Really Like" list. This list changes week to week, but does have some of the usual  suspects.

I already held a position in all four of the stocks, but was looking to possibly add to my position at the open. Only 1 of the four performed well today, and that was mainly due to a positive write-up in Barron's over the weekend.

For those that do not know, those four stocks were; Western Union (WU), Baidu (BIDU), OpenTable (OPEN), and Sears Holdings (SHLD). I did add to my position in Baidu(BIDU) with some more $100 weekly calls @ .16. So why you ask, is the title of this post "Two Stocks on the Move" when I am discussing ones that did not? Well that is because this market can give you opportunities at anytime, and I had to adjust my strategy for the day.

One of the stocks that moved out of the gate this morning was Netflix(NFLX). I spoke a few times over the past week about the channel i was watching from 209-224. Netflix(NFLX) broke under the $209 channel last week, and figured we would not see the stock above $210 for sometime. But news about more Disney content coming to Netflix(NFLX) helped spark shares higher, as well as Ichan saying he has not sold a share. Today's action was very telling, and once it broke $224 I started looking for a position in the calls thinking today is the start of a new uptrend. I did get some of the $255 calls @ .36, and think the stock heads over $240 sometime this week. Below is the chart I made for the Week Ahead Webinar the Sunday before Netflix(NFLX) earnings, when the stock was under $170. The chart shows there is plenty of room to the upside, even with the recent move.

NFLX 5-13 - small

 

The next stock is another favorite we have played before... Wynn Resorts (WYNN). The stock closed today at multi-year highs, and looks like its ready to breakout in a major way. We grabbed the $145 weekly calls @ .19 and may look to get some more positions this week. The chart below shows the channel and the breakout that could happen.

WYNN 5-13 - small

 

We will update on the watchlist this morning on these trades, as well as some others.

Happy Trading!

- JB