Tag Archives: CME

November 19th, 2013 Watch List

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The DOW crossed 16,000 for the first time and the SPY ramped into all-time highs yesterday only to fade at the trading day's end. TSLA continued to be under pressure and broke under $130 while SCTY also saw some selling and broke under $50 in the afternoon. Some of the pullback in SCTY can be attributed to this Congressional inquiry : http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2013/11/18/barrons-story-on-solarcity-sparks-congressional-inquiry/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo .

3-D stocks continued to ramp higher yesterday with my favorite, SSYS, hitting new highs. I locked my $145 calls in, as I'm worried about a pullback on the stocks. I still love the sector, however, and will be jumping back into SSYS when it looks right.

HD reported another strong quarter this morning and the stock is back over its May 213 high while BBY also reported a nice quarter but warned on margins going forward, thus putting the stock down pre-market.

Bitcoin continues to gather some attention as it broke above $600 yesterday, while also hitting $900 last night, though it eventually fell back into the $500s. It's crazy to watch the trading, but that's all I'll do for right now.

I grabbed some ICE January $230 calls and think the stock is poised to break out over $210 this week. The January strikes will give the stock plenty of time to get to $220, and that was my reasoning in getting January instead of December.

I saw some weakness in AAPL and bought some $505 puts near the end of the day. I'll be quick to close them out if I see strength this morning, however. And here's why I bought some: http://stocktwits.com/message/17489521

Not too many analyst changes for today, but here are the ones of note:

GME GameStop is transition period winner, says RW Baird
Baird views GameStop as a transition period winner that benefited from strong sales of GTA V and strong digital and Mobile growth offsetting slower sales of current-gen hardware and software. The firm sees GameStop as a way for investors to play the new console cycle and sees earnings upside in 2014 and beyond. Shares are Outperform rated with a $57 price target
CVS Caremark to benefit from healthcare reform, says Jefferies
Jefferies says CVS Caremark is well positioned to benefit from healthcare reform after its research indicated the company stands to be the biggest pharmacy benefit manager beneficiary from Medicaid expansion. The firm keeps a Buy rating on CVS with a $71 price target
CRM Salesforce.com price target raised to $65 from $54 at Canaccord
Canaccord said Salesforce.com's earnings report was solid and positions the stock well for 2014. Salesforce.com is Canaccord's favorite large-cap growth stock for 2014 given growth rates and cash flow margins. Shares are Buy rated
GMCR SunTrust cautious ahead of Green Mountain's Q4 report
SunTrust is confident Green Mountain will beat its $970M revenue estimate, consensus $964M, but has concerns regarding decelerating K-Cup growth reported by Nielsen and that FY14 guidance will be back-end loaded. The firm said the company shipped 5M brewers in Q1, making comps difficult. Shares are Neutral rated with an $80 price target
P Pandora Q3 ad revenue likely to beat expectations, says MKM Partners
MKM Partners expects Pandora's Q3 ad revenue to surpass expectations. However, the firm continues to believe that the company's EPS will not exceed $1 in 2015, and it expects the stock to undergo "a meaningful correction" when revenue momentum slows. The firm keeps a Sell rating on the stock
JACK Jack in the Box attractively valued, says BofA/Merrill
BofA/Merrill expects Jack in the Box to report Q4 EPS of 41c vs. consensus of 39c, on flattish comps. The analyst believes shares are the least expensive in the quick service restaurant universe and maintains its above Street FY14 EPS estimate of $2.20. Shares are Buy rated with a $50 price target

WHR Whirlpool downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James

DE Deere likely to guide consensus estimates lower tomorrow, says UBS
UBS said the proposed EPA announcement to reduce renewable fuel standards for 2014 is a headwind for ethanol production, combined with tightening credit conditions, and falling farmland values in certain regions, will result in weakening order trends for Deere. The firm expects Deere to guide 2014 consensus estimate lower tomorrow and reiterates its Sell rating and $72 price target

Yesterday's fade in SHLD provides a nice opportunity to grab some long some calls before earnings (I'll most likely sell all of them before earnings if I do get in, though). I may also try for some more ICE calls with CC this morning, amid news of synergies from the NYX merger.

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
ICE CALL $240.00 January 0.40 0.35
SHLD CALL $85.00 December 0.53 0.47

Let's have a great day!

- JB

June 4, 2013 Watch List

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After a rocky morning, the market found its footing and closed solidly in the green. There were moments in the morning where it sure looked like the market was going to sell-off in rapid fashion, but $163 seemed to hold well, and the specter of another green tuesday gave stocks support.

Folks are finally figuring out the heads bulls win, tails bears lose environment we have been in for the past 2 years. Yet now they think good news will cause a sell-off, which maybe possible with Fridays Jobs numbers due out for May. It was April’s job numbers that sparked the next leg in the 2013 rally, let’s hope May numbers do not derail it.

 

Today we go for #21. A streak that will probably never be beaten. Here is a great analysis by UPB: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/twenty-one/

 

Futures are slightly green this morning and sure feels like the bulls are going to make it happen today.

 

Gold and Silver are giving back all the gains from yesterday. I spoke about the ISM number yesterday giving more hints of deflation which should spark more selling in commods. The index dropped to 49, the lowest since June of 2009 and shows contraction. I think this is more a function of folks waiting for lower prices, then an actual demand issue. The Fed can drop freshly printed hundreds from 747s all over the US, but if folks put the money under their pillow, inflation will not happen. Same goes with those banks that are not giving out loans...ect.

 

Had Visa(V) on the watchlist this morning on a GS price target raise, and the investor conference on Thursday. Chart looked very nice and figured she would bounce back into the 180s, which she did. Still think she has some legs this week and could break into all-time highs into Thursday. Here is the trade idea sent via text: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/text-trade-idea-from-this-morning-update/ I will not be sending out a text when i close the trade, but they are already a double so would make sense for most to at least lock half in and ride freebies.(Not my cup of tea).

Also, here is UPB’s thouhts on AAPL this week: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/aapl-offering-a-great-trade-set-up-for-june-chart/

 

Hopefully we get a nice steady ramp today on the SPY into the $165-166 range.

 

Here are the analyst changes for today:

 

 

 

Ulta Salon downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman
Goldman downgraded Ulta Salon ahead of expected 2014 investment to strengthen its e-commerce offering. Price target raised to $98 from $93

 

Buffalo Wild Wings removed from Focus Idea List at RW Baird
Baird removed Buffalo Wild Wings from the Focus Idea List due to outperformance. The firm maintains its Outperform rating and would be aggressive buyers in the low $90s. Price target remains $95

 

Cerner coverage resumed with a Buy at Goldman
Target $115

 

Monster Beverage sales accelerate in May, says Goldman
Monster disclosed at its shareholder meeting yesterday that April/May combined gross sales were +9.4%, implying May gross sales growth of 13%, according to Goldman. In addition, U.S. Nielsen c-store data accelerated to +9.7% for the 4 weeks ended May 25 vs. +5.1% for the four weeks ending May 11. The firm expects shares to be up on encouraging May trends and believes 2H 2013 looks attractive for the company given improving international margins and easier comps. Shares are Buy rated

 

TripAdvisor price target raised to $70 from $60 at Macquarie
Macquarie believes TripAdvisor's will benefit from increased OTA competition and that its ongoing roll-out if its user-friendly UI will drive increased traffic on its site. Shares are Outperform rated

 

priceline.com price target raised to $915 from $845 at Macquarie
Macquarie raised priceline.com estimates due to increased confidence in Bookings.com U.S. market share gains. Shares are Outperform rated with a $915 price target, raised from $845

 

CME Group upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo upgraded CME Group on expectations interest rates and equities will add to the company's to growth. The firm raised its price target range for shares to $80-$90 from $55-$65

 

LULU Lululemon to meet or beat high end of guidance, says William Blair
William Blair expects lululemon to meet or beat its Q1 earnings estimate of 30c, which is at the high end of the company's 28c-30c guidance. The firm said its channel checks indicate lululemon's traffic trends were healthy in Q1 despite the shortage of black luon. William Blair continues to like shares of lululemon with an Outperform rating

 

BofA/Merrill expects Under Armour to provide a strong revenue outlook
BofA/Merrill said expectations are high heading into Under Armour's analyst day tomorrow but the company should provide strong revenue outlook of 20-25% for the next three years. Shares are Buy rated with a $68 price target

 

Six Flags price target raised to $80-$83 from $71-$74 at Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo increased its target on Six Flags as the firm believes that the company will benefit from strong initial 2013 season pass sales and higher ticket prices. The firm notes that the stock has a high dividend yield and it keeps an Outperform rating on the shares

 

 

Will be keeping it small today, like i have been for the past few weeks. Only position added yesterday were the V calls. Will look to trade CME calls for the first time in over a year, as well as trying to get into VRA before earnings.

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
VRA CALL $30.00 AUGUST 0..35 0.30
VRA CALL $30.00 JULY 0.20 0.15
CME CALL $72.50 June 0.32 0.35

 

 

 

Lets have a great day!

 

- JB

CME Group (CME)

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CME Group (CME) is a stock that has been very kind to us over the years. At the start of 2012, we were able to position ourselves with some calls  into earnings and banked some serious coin. Take a look at the charts below for the call. And this was what we were saying before the stock took off: "CME GOING TO GET LEGS" ; CME GROUP

 

BEFORE

AFTER

The $270 calls we purchased at .75 hit $21 at the high. So $75 into $2100. History has a tendency to repeat itself, and we are looking at CME group (CME) for another possible move over the next few days. Why? Isn't the stock up nearly 8% over the last 4 trading sessions and above the 200 & 50 day moving averages? It is, and someone taking a glance at the chart may consider CME Group (CME) to be overbought. But the real question is: Who is buying CME Group (CME)? CME Group (CME) is a favorite among institutional investors. Retail traders are not buying and selling the stock.  With a forward split coming to attract attention, and another massive divy coming, we think its the beginning of a bull run on CME Group (CME) shares.

Time will tell, but we think CME Group (CME) will trade above $300 in short order. Take a look at our chart below.

 

 

 

 

We are positioned with a large quantity of $280 and $290 June calls.

ICE (Intercontinental Exchange)

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What is the best indicator of  future performance??? Past performance? Well if it was that easy , this site would be called OptionBillionaires. But what we can say, is that a stocks history can be used as a tool to help gauge future results.  Take ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) for example. ICE has reported earnings that have beaten EPS estimates for the last 7 Quarters, revenues have also been growing, yet the stock has traded in a range from $102 to $135. We think this earnings cycle will break that trend.

 

Like we wrote about on CME (CME Group), buying options in a stock thats 'cold', can yield amazing returns as it gets 'hot'. We think ICE is ready to melt the charts, and break the trading range with it's earnings release tomorrow. This is the difference maker, and the one that set the stock on fire a few years back on the new. Check it out here. Thats the money maker.

I guess time will tell, but if history is any indication, we will be in for a very fun wednesday.

 

Disclosure: We do own $130 FEB 18th calls and March $135 calls.