Tag Archives: PCLN

Buy… Buy… Or get the f&ck out of the way….

Everyone on WallStreet has been fore-telling the grand "Santa Clause" rally. The one that will ensure huge bonuses and after work lapdances. That rally seemed to be in jeopardy  to start the week, as the market battled with the 1200 mark on the S&P. But three days later, the S&P has surged more then 4% from its Monday lows, and now sits above the 200 day moving average. A great sign for those looking for a continued move higher over the next few days.


Well, one could argue that the data coming out for the US economy continues to be somewhat promising. I actually think it doesn't mean anything. Folks will continue to shrug off the numbers and push the tape higher. It will only provide a better opportunity to go short sometime in 2012. For now, follow the big boys and look at some of the plays that have been beaten down on the Europe worries as well as those looking to break into new all-time high levels.

Plays I like into next week are Visa(V), Mastercard(MA), Priceline(PCLN), Caterpiller(CAT), Google(GOOG),Amazon(AMZN), and NKE(Nike).



PCLN (Priceline.com) : Book your profits here?

Priceline (PCLN) is one of the few remaining "momentum stocks" that hasn't succumb to it's lofty expectations. The last few months have seen many of the high fliers, come crashing down to reality. Stockw like: NFLX, TZOO, OPEN, SINA have all been a victim of their own success. Driven to insane heights, only to come down just as hard on some fundamental or news worthy item that the street didn't like.

Priceline has avoided that fate, for the time being. The company has actually reported earnings that have demolished expectations, and almost doubled its EPS year over year for it's last Quarter.

With most analysts price targets at $610 and above, one would think PCLN would have lifted off post earnings and hit all-time highs. The lift-off did happen post earnings, for a day. Then the sell-off began. PCLN topped out at a little over $550, and a close to a month later, sits at $445.It also bounced off it's lower bollie band today.



Retail traders are not responsible for the sell-off, and looks more like hedge funds or institutional investors, taking some of their position off the table. Goldman Sacks also put the put the internet sector on it's buy list today sans Yahoo.

Normally that would be enough to prevent the 4% haircut in PCLN shares today, but Goldman Sacks has lost their luster.

We do like PCLN here for some action on the calls side. Catching options on the right side of the trade in a stock trading in the hundred dollar level, can equal huge gains.

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CRM – SalesForce.Com Ready to rock or ready to roll???

Up and down… Buy and Sell… Short and Long… Easy market trades. At the end of each one of those, there is someone who is right, and someone who is wrong. Betting on a stock to go up or down would seem to be an easy thing to do, and when you bet on a stock to go down long enough, eventually you will be right. That was the case with NFLX… that was the case with GMCR to an extent, and now folks are saying CRM is the next one to tumble.


CRM - Salesforce.com

Why? Because it seems severely overvalued on a fundamental basis… more specifically it’s P/E ratio which currently sits at an insane 675. To put that in perspective, SAP (SAP AG), a very similar company, trades at a 19.69 P/E ratio. Is that enough reason for it to fall? We shall see as CRM reports its 3Q on Thursday with much anticipation.  Is the stock priced for perfection? A miss on either the EPS side, revenue side, or outlook side, could be devastating.


So what are we looking for on Thursday from CRM? $575 mil in revenues and a .31 EPS should keep folks some what happy, but I do feel CRM will need to beat estimates and be rosy about future prospects to really see some upside.


So you ask, what are my thoughts?


Glad you ask that question. The retail investor looks at this stock and says “Easy Short”…  Well that’s what they have been saying for over a year now. Myself on the other hand, Ithought this stock would be over $200 now, but the August sell off, and subpar results for Q2 stymied that move.


Now I think CRM is primed to move towards $200, macro environment permitting. Here is why… CRM is a best of breed stock. Like PCLN, it has had sustained huge growth, and has continued to grow. Last Quarter revenues grew at over 38%, and this Q shouldn’t be any different.


Look at the past 2 years of earnings growth:






Jan. 31, 2011


Oct. 31, 2010






Jan. 31, 2010


Oct. 31, 2009



This companies a beast and I really think she moves 10-15% after earnings. Last I will leave you with what the analysts are saying. I usually don’t side with the analysts, but seems to me they have been dead on. Well, that’s after they started believing in the company when it broke $100.

Jefferies Remains Positive on salesforce.com (CRM)

Salesforce.com expected to report an above consensus quarter, says Credit Suisse

Salesforce.com price target raised to $163 from $138 at Caris

Citi: Salesforce.com Has Ways To Win You Don't Even Know About


I will leave you with that. Chart is below and play accordingly.


CRM - Sales Force.com on 11-15