Tag Archives: calls

2-27-2013

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After quite a volatile session in the morning where the SPY moved to 150.14, only to fall to 148.79, the market finally found some footing and melted higher at the end of the day to close at 150. After being up over 4% in the morning, the VIX closed down 11%. Right now futures are slightly red so we shall see what today brings. PCLN and ZAGG reported after hours last night. Both beat and both are up nicely pre-market. My PCLN MARCH 835 calls will most likely open bidless unless PCLN ramps at the open. Will need to see $740+ today. UPB was all over ZAGG and that stock looks set to go 8.50+ today. FSLR is down after revenue outlook came in way below estimates. Nice job on puts in chat from RetiredMM and others.

 

A nice read for those still holding SAM calls like myself:

Beer drinking up for first time since 2008: http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324662404578329570791028376.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

 

Some nice upgrades today for LNKD and OPEN. Still have LNKD calls and will look to add more today.

 

Here are the rest of the analyst changes i liked this morning:

 

 

priceline.com price target raised $825 from $770 at Goldman

Goldman continues to believe Priceline is well positioned to benefit from growing segment growth within online travel and sees risk/reward as favorable. Shares are Buy rated.

priceline.com price target raised to $835 from $740 at JPMorgan

JPMorgan raised its price target for priceline.com citing the company's strong Q4 results and Q1 outlook. The firm believes continued bookings acceleration could drive shares higher and reiterates an Overweight rating on the stock.

priceline.com price target raised to $800 from $750 at Cantor

Cantor increased its target on priceline.com after the company reported higher than expected Q4 adjusted EPS. The firm thinks the company's efforts to gain market share in the Asia-Pacific and Latin American regions are paying off, but it expects margins to be pressured by higher investments over the next several quarters. The firm maintains a Buy rating on the shares.

priceline.com price target raised to $800 from $750 at Benchmark Co.

Benchmark Co. raised its price target for priceline.com following the company's Q4 results and keeps a Buy rating on the stock.

priceline.com price target raised to $800 from $756 at Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray believes priceline.com reported strong Q4 results with accelerating bookings growth. The firm raised its price target for shares to $800 and maintains an Overweight rating on the name.

G)

Google upgraded at BofA/Merrill

As previously reported, BofA/Merrill upgraded Googleto Buy from Neutral. The firm believes Google has an opportunity to accelerate ex-FX revenue and for multiple expansion in 2H 2013 driven by the Enhanced Campaigns rollout, increased revenues from Product Listing Ads, potential Motorola product launches. As part of the upgrade the firm raised its price target to $920 from $790.

(FSLR)

First Solar downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill

 

LinkedIn price target raised to $200 from $160 at Evercore

Evercore believes Linkedin's multiple will expand towards its software peers driven by revenue growth, business mix, gross margins and OCF. Shares are Overweight rated

Cracker Barrel valuation range raised to $72-$74 from $64-$68 at Wells Fargo

Wells Fargo increased its valuation range on Cracker Barrel after the company reported Q2 same-store sales above its peer average. The firm, however, believes that the company's valuation largely reflects its fundamental momentum and it maintains a Market Perform rating

 

Again, until i get some right here will be keeping it small. OPEN should ramp over 52 week high in the next day or two so will try to add more calls preferably the 57.50s. Never added SHLD yesterday so will look for some today:

 

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
SHLD CALL $55.42 March 0.43 0.43
OPEN CALL $57.50 March 0.55 0.45
OPEN CALL $60.00 March 0.25 0.25

 

 

Lets have a great day!!

 

- JB

2-25-2013 Watch List

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This week is starting off like last week, as futures are green and the market looks primed to continue to climb the ladder to all-time highs. With Sequestration cuts looming on Friday, and all the hype like the fiscal cliff, one would think the market would be walking on egg shells instead of showing incredible strength.

We were given a 2% cut on our paychecks via the tax increases to start the year, whats the big deal if the US govt is going to cut spending by 2%. The embarrassing part is it’s forced on them rather then in a more diplomatic fashion. Either way, we shall see how this plays out as the week progresses. Figure folks will need a reason to lock more profits in on the way up so we may have a bit of volatility towards the end of the week.

 

If you missed it last night here is the link for the week ahead:

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/showthread.php/329-The-Week-Ahead-with-UPB-and-JB-2-24-2013?p=570#post570

Quite a few earnings reports this week. I like AZO and PCLN and will position for some calls on both today and tomorrow. You also have retailers this week and hopefully SHLD, which we currently have calls on.

 

DDD completed the stock split today and will look to grab a few calls for earnings after hours:

 

05:24 PM EST, 02/05/2013 (MidnightTrader) -- 3D Systems Corporation (DDD) declared a three-for-two split of the company's common stock in the nature of a 50% stock dividend. On February 22, 2013, each stockholder of record at the close of business on February 15, 2013 will receive one additional share for every two shares held on the record date.Trading is expected to begin on a split-adjusted basis on February 25, 2013

Here are some of the analyst changes today:

 

BUD)

AB InBev upgraded to Neutral from Reduce at Nomura

(AKAM)

Akamai upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie

Macquarie believes Akamai's (AKAM) miss was due to the Netflix (NFLX) migration to its own CDN and that when Akamai fills the capacity it will be at higher margins. As a result, the firm views the recent sell-off as a buying opportunity and upgraded shares to Buy with a $42 price target, raised from $41.50.

Apple price target lowered to $710 from $750 at Needham

Needham lowered its price target for Apple shares but maintained its 2013 and 2014 earnings estimates for the company. The price target drop followed Needham's semi-annual exercise of valuing Apple's products. The firm keeps a Buy rating on the stock.

Stifel Nicolaus maintains Flowserve Corporation (NYSE: FLS) with a Buy and raises the price target from $169.00 to $175.00.

BMO Capital maintains Flowserve Corporation (NYSE: FLS) with a Outperform and raises the price target from $178.00 to $182.00.

Jefferies maintains Flowserve Corporation (NYSE: FLS) with a Hold and raises the price target from $152.00 to $175.00.

Still love SODA, SAM, OPEN, SHLD, BNNY, BPT, DNKN, CROX and will look to add a few positions this week for earnings and swing plays.

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
DDD CALL $40.00 weekly NA NA
DDD CALL $42.50 weekly NA NA
AZO CALL $420.00 March 0.60 0.50
PCLN CALL $850.00 March 0.55 0.50
PCLN CALL $860.00 March 0.45 0.30

 

Will try for a few AZO calls, as well as grabbing some PCLN calls for earnings which I may wait until tomorrow for. I am playing for a 10%+ move in PCLN and will grab way OTM calls for a possible few week move over $800. DDD calls are not priced yet so will have to wait for open to gauge a good entry.

 

Lets have a great day!!

- JB

OpenTable, Inc (OPEN)

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OpenTable

 

We were bullish on OpenTable, Inc (OPEN) back on December 10th, as the chart showed signs of a potential breakout from $46.21. In little more then a month, the stock climbed over 20% hitting $55.95 on January 25th. See the chart below for our original call:

open 12-10

 

Since then, OpenTable, Inc (OPEN) has channeled in a tight range as folks look for catalysts to fuel the next surge or fade. Yesterday Raymond James downgraded OpenTable (OPEN) from Outperform to Market Perform. The stock sold off on the news, but found footing and settled above $54. We think OpenTable, Inc (OPEN) is ready to break out of its current trading channel and test $60 in the next few weeks.

OpenTable, Inc (OPEN) was once trading over $100 and on top of the world. A world that came crashing down as growth concerns scared investors. We now think the stock looks very attractive. It's forward P/E ratio is under 30, the company is debt free, generating nice cash flow, and continues to show strong double digit growth.

Any frequent diner will tell you how entrenched OpenTable, Inc (OPEN) seems to be, and with a 1.2 bil marketcap, it would not be a stretch to think it is a buy out candidate. With some more upside on the stock possible, and the days of easy money ending, one would have to think something would happen very soon.

We currently hold March 55/60 calls and may add or sell our position at any time.

OPEN 2-22

 

 

Boston Beer (SAM) Breaking Out into Q4 Earnings

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Smauel-Adams-Can-Illustration

Boston Beer (SAM) broke out in a big way today, adding $10.19 or nearly 7%, to close at an all-time high on nearly 2 times the average volume. Boston Beer (SAM) announced yesterday afternoon that they will finally start offering their trademark Boston Lager in a can in mid-2013, paving the way for more revenue opportunities, while also allowing folks to enjoy their favorite Beer in some locations that are not bottle friendly like sporting events, the beach, boating, or other activities. Was that news the catalyst for todays huge move? It's possible, but we think unlikely. The news was out yesterday afternoon, and you can see from the chart below, Boston Beer (SAM) shares really started to break out during the last hour of the trading session, and were somewhat stagnant before that.

SAM min 2-19

 

 

So what was the reason for the large move? With Boston Beer (SAM) reporting Q4 earnings after the bell, we think folks are getting positioned for a rather violent move to the upside. A move we have been talking about for a few weeks now. Back in late January, we thought Boston Beer (SAM) was poised to break over $150, where we would see some serious short covering action. This is what we said:

With a track record of solid growth, a great balance sheet with zero debt, and position as one of the top 2 U.S brewers, we  feel the stock is poised to continue to ramp higher though January and February, especially as the market continues its march above 5 year highs. We are watching the $150 level on Boston Beer Co, Inc (SAM) as an area where volume and interest will really gain steam, and those betting on story on the short side, will throw in the towel.

It looks like today was confirmation of what we think is going to happen over the next few weeks, as folks start ignoring the analysts and shorts who have been wrong on the stock since $20, and start seeing the potential Boston Beer (SAM) has for future growth and market share gains. One only has to look at Molson Coors Brewing's (TAP) most  recent earnings report on thursday to see how craft brews are taking the country by storm as it's flagship Blue Moon brew continued it's double digit growth in 2012.

Nothing is ever certain, and it is very risky holding any position going into earnings, so please make sure you do your own due diligence. But we really like Boston Beer (SAM) to continue to defy gravity and continue hit all-time highs.

We currently hold March $165 and April $170 calls which we may add to or liquidate at anytime in the next few sessions.

2-13-2013 Watch List

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The market closed at another high yesterday and looks set to start green today. Volume continues to be somewhat light, but to me that means there are less sellers. Expecting more of the same today with a low volume day that closes green or close to it.

 

Yesterdays action on FOSL disappointed as it bolted out of the gate to 115, only to fade the rest of the day and close near lows at 110.65 . Playing history can sometimes work, but when it doesnt, it can be painful. BWLD also reported earnings yesterday but issued a cautious guidance. The stock sold off over 6% and is red pre-market. Looks like analysts may overlook the outlook as excessively cautious and the stock may see 85+ today. Will play it that way.

 

Quite a few folks were asking about when i sell an option or when i put in limits. I figure I will do a webinar or write a piece on that when i get a chance. But here is a quick summary:

 

I do not put in stops, and I post my sells via twitter and chatroom. If I dont post a sell on a position i am in, that usually means it expired worthless, unless I forgot to post it. The site is a tool in your trading arsenal. We are not a buy and sell recommendation site per say.

The best way to use this site if you are knew to options is paper trade and learn. Veteran traders use the chatroom as a news source and for trading ideas. And I know their are a bunch of folks who are just there to follow me or other traders. I will go into this is more detail some other time, just wanted to provide a little clarity here.

 

Here are some of the analyst changes today:

 

Netflix price target raised to $205 from $180 at JPMorgan

JPMorgan raised its price target for Netflix shares after meeting with management and reiterates an Overweight rating on the stock. The firm said its meetings indicated House of Cards is off to a strong start and that Netflix is back on track toward disrupting the linear TV market. JPMorgan says original programming could help drive subscriber upside in 2013

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Buffalo Wild Wings EPS guidance looks conservative, says RBC Capital

RBC Capital continues to believe that Buffalo Wild Wings could generate significantly higher than expected EPS, and the firm maintains an Outperform rating on the stock.

Groupon upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Sterne Agee

Sterne Agee upgraded Groupon based on valuation discount and a constructive long-term view of its business. Price target is $9.

Fossil price target raised to $130 from $108 at Citigroup

Citigroup raised its price target for Fossil following the company's Q4 results and says the stock remains one of its top picks for 2013. The firm reiterates a Buy rating on the stock

 

I am in quite a few positions (and I dont see much for the open)so watchlist is small this morning:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
BWLD CALL $85.00 Weekly 2.00 0.10
WTW CALL $65.00 March 0.60 0.60
WTW CALL $67.50 March 0.50 0.45

 

 

If I see BWLD starting to get a bid at the open, will try for some lotto calls for a possible reversal. Still like WTW but premiums have increased everyday even though the stock is down. March calls only cost 10% more for 4 more weeks, so that is the better play. Will try 65/67.50 calls.

 

I still love SAM, SHLD, SODA, and OPEN amongst the positions I hold. Will update via twitter and chat throughout the day.

 

Happy Trading!

 

- jimmybob