It's hard to believe only a week's time has transpired since the markets opened for trade on Monday. Speaking of Monday, the markets are closed this Monday, what better time to start doing all those things you promised yourself you would do in 2015.
This is perhaps the most exciting week we've had in the markets since the announcement that Tim Giethner was going to run the Treasury and oh boy was that ever exciting. There is no better way to maximize the affect of asset price moving events than to announce them on the day when every option and futures contract on the planet is set to expire. (cue the sarcastic grunt here)
WWTST! What were the Swiss thinking? On Thursday with most of the world snug in their beds, asnooze in their towns, the Swiss National Bank removed the peg and took all the FOREX accounts down.
The dust is still settling on this unbelievable maneuver by the Swiss. When the governments impede the process of the free markets.... this is what happens. One thing is for sure... it has diverted attention away from the crash in oil prices.
Let's move on to the week that was, or wasn't. It is finally over. The daily gyrations, the out of no where rips to the upside, the hair raising dips, brought to you by the year 2015, which is already shaping up to be a barn burner.
A nice trading environment if you knew when to take your profits and cut your losses quickly.
A few trades I made this week included $HD, $BWLD, $CMG, and $BIDU. Three of the trades worked out nicely, the last trade, $BIDU puts, were a short term high risk trade and did not work out as $BIDU gapped and didn't look back today.
$BWLD was a nice put trade on the spike to near record highs earlier this week.
$HD $102 puts worked out wonderfully from $.58, they hit $1.50 this morning before $HD 'v' bottomed to a 3% gain on the day.
$CMG $700 puts were sold early in the morning as the stock did its usual slow melt up and closed near the highs today. I think $CMG is setting up for a move lower, but their is no sense fighting it when you have profits to take.
JB was busy milking more from the $PCLN money tree this week. The put buyers continued to reap some nice gains as the stock fell under the $1,000 level this week.
$IBB puts also worked for a nice 400% gain.
We closed the week over the key $100 $QQQ level. This line has been respected, and the market has yet to spend any length of time under it since breaking above it in early December.
What concerns me is the lower highs, the volatility and the frequency of the $100 test. The market put in a nice bounce today and we could see the momentum continue into early next week, but unless we break out of this lower high pattern I expect the $QQQ $100 level to break again. The next $100 break will result in a 10% or more correction possibly below Octobers lows.
Has crude put in a bottom? I don't think so, but for the short and possibly medium term crude could see a rather nice recovery. This would also help the stock market, as the rising price of oil would end some uncertainty about the crude oil crash... at least for now. I think the uncertainty in energy names and oil will remain a constant throughout 2015.
Next week we have the ECB, earnings reports, FOREX bailouts, bond buying, key price levels to watch, and much much more.
In my best talking head voice.... next week prepare for more volatility in the markets..... there.... you heard it here first.
Have a great long weekend. Don't forget, take it easy on Monday. The stock market is closed. What better time for the FED to raise rates than Monday? That would go over well.