$AAPL Chart Update Video
$HLF Chart Update Video
3-19-2013 Watch List
Cyprus was the talk of markets yesterday and continues to make headlines. Yesterdays sell-off was met with dip buyers at the open, and the market was green for a minute yesterday, but then faded at the end of the day. In the grand scope of things, the Cyprus bailout is not as significant as folks are playing it up to be. Obviously toying with an ‘institution’ like a bank, is a scary precedent to set, but Cyprus is an extreme situation requiring possible extreme solutions. Either way, yesterday proved we are still in a “buy the dip’ environment and we continue this melt higher.
Housing starts were up for February, and we have the FOMC meeting today and tomorrow. Expect those to be non-events as the FED has already showed their hand.
LULU issued a revenue warning as they had to recall some of their products. The company creates its own limited supply cycle, meaning it will take some time to replenish the product. Dont have a position but stock may find its way into the 50s. FDS reported earnings this morning that beat EPS but missed REV as well as issuing guidance that beats EPS but misses on REV. Will be watching at open to see how the market takes the numbers.
AAPL looks like it is starting to gain traction. UPB was mentioning how AAPL gapped up everyday for like 7 days straight in the spring of 2012. Do we have DeJaVu? A piece in the WSJ this morning says the downtrend in AAPL is officially over: https://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2013/03/19/apples-breakout-suggests-downtrend-has-ended/?KEYWORDS=apple Time will tell, but its quite possible AAPL could break 480+ this week.
Here are some of the analyst changes today:
TOL Toll Brothers upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James
Price target raised to $40 from $37.
ROST Ross Stores well positioned for market share gains, says UBS
UBS said Ross Stores is well positioned to gain market share given mid-tier department stores weakness, a potential rebound in the home category, customer trade down potential, and square footage growth. Shares are Buy rated.
GOOG Google initiated with an Outperform at JMP Securities
Target $955
PCLN priceline.com initiated with an Outperform at JMP Securities
Target $850.
Z Zillow initiated with an Outperform at JMP Securities
Target $58.
LULU lululemon estimates lowered on quality issue at BofA/Merrill
BofA/Merrill lowered lululemon estimates due to the quality problem in its core women's black pants and crops. The firm lowered its 2013 EPS estimate to $2.10 from $2.15 and its price target to $60 from $66. The firm maintains its Underperform rating on shares.
COST Costco remains a favorite name at Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley said Costco remains a favorite name and raised estimates due to continued strong traffic and comps. The firm sees more international expansion ahead and views this favorably given higher margins. Shares are Overweight rated with a $113 price target, raised from $109.
AAPL Apple watch unlikely to significantly affect earnings, says Bernstein
Bernstein estimates that a successful computerized watch from Apple would increase the company's EPS by only 1%-2%, after accounting for iPod cannibalization. The firm, however, believes that a successful watch would illustrate the option value of owning Apple as a platform company. It maintains a $725 price target and Outperform rating on the shares.
PNRA Panera Bread upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital
BMO Capital upgraded Panera Bread due to relative valuation
Added some positions yesterday: SHLD 65 C, AAPL 475 C, ISRG 520/525 C, CRM 180/185 C, NFLX 200 C .
Will look to add FFIV sometime in the next day or two for a bounce that is long over due. If AAPL breaks and hold 460 at the open, may add some more OTM calls. LNKD looks ready to bounce with CRM.
Here are the strikes I am looking at:
Stock Ticker | Call/Put | Strike | Expiration | Closing Price | Entry Price |
FFIV | CALL | $92.50 | Weekly | 0.47 | 0.47 |
AAPL | CALL | $490.00 | Weekly | 0.33 | 0.35 |
LNKD | CALL | $180.00 | Weekly | 0.60 | 0.55 |
Still have SAM Apr 170/180 C and may add more this week. SAM has 3 straight all-time high closes and looks to continue the trend. Dont forget folks, the trend is your friend!
Lets have a great Tuesday!!
- JB
3-18-2013 Watch List
Cyprus news has the global markets in the red, as the bailout terms sets some ugly precedents along with worries of possible bank runs and possible contagion in the Eurozone. The Euro opened lower by over 1%, a huge move. US futures were down over 1% overnight, but have rebounded slightly. We have been in a buy the dip environment, and that will surely be tested today. Think this pullback is overblown, and folks will pile in at the open. Of course if that doesn’t happen, it could be an ugly day. I will be looking to grab some plays at the open for the dip buyers.
Here are some of the analyst changes:
VZ Verizon upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup
Citigroup upgraded Verizon (VZ) citing solid wireless fundamentals and a greater likelihood that the company could employ an accretive leveraged buyout of Vodafone's (VOD) stake in Verizon Wireless. Citi raised its price target for Verizon shares to $54 from $46.
UTX United Technologies upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup
Citigroup upgraded United Technologies citing valuation and the end of the company's transition period. The firm raised its price target for shares to $110 from $88
BUD AB InBev price target raised to $115 from $102 at Jefferies
Jefferies raised its price target for AB InBev shares citing the company's growth prospects and strong cash flows. The firm keeps a Buy rating on the stock.
ISRG Intuitive Surgical upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord
Canaccord upgraded Intuitive Surgical based on recent share weakness. Price target lowered to $527 from $590.
NKE Nike price target raised to $68 from $60 at BofA/Merrill
BofA/Merrill expects Nike's global futures to be driven by price increases, momentum in basketball and strong running trends, increased Air Force 1 allocations, emerging markets growth, and strength in U.S apparel. Shares are Buy rated.
GMCR CMG SBUX Green Mountain price target raised to $67 from $58 at Lazard Capital
Lazard Capital believes Starbucks (SBUX), Green Mountain (GMCR) and Chipotle (CMG) have the best stock upside potential in the Restaurant space. The firm raised its price target for Green Mountain shares to $67 from $58, for Starbucks shares to $74 from $69, and keeps a $393 price target for Chipotle shares.
BREW Craft Brew upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup
Citigroup upgraded Craft Brew (BREW) citing expectations for accelerating shipment growth in 2013 and limited downside risk given a potential takeout potential by AB InBev (BUD), who has a 32% stake in Craft Brew. Citi raised its price target for Craft Brew shares to $10 from $7.50
JCP J.C. Penney Joe Fresh shop-in-shops a bright spot, says Oppenheimer
After visiting a few of J.C. Penney's new Joe Fresh shop-in-shops, Oppenheimer believes that the stores' merchandise "looks compelling," while customers appear to be reacting positively to them. The firm maintains a Perform rating on the shares.
KORS Michael Kors shares recommended at Goldman
Goldman believes increased concerns over sales trends and the recent supply of Michael Kors shares has created a buying opportunity for this high growth stock. The firm said brand momentum remains strong and Michael Kors continues to take share. The firm reiterated its Conviction Buy rating and $80 price target.
CRM Salesforce.com price target raised to $225 from $200 at FBR Capital
FBR Capital raised its price target for Salesforce.com citing greater appreciation for the company's public sector opportunity. The firm thinks investors should pay close attention to Salesforce.com's success in the public sector and reiterates an Outperform rating on the stock.
The Week Ahead will be in the forum in a few hours so stay tuned: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/forumdisplay.php/5-Week-Ahead-with-UPB
I still love SAM, OPEN, and SHLD. I don’t have positions in SHLD but will look for some today. SFLY and BWLD are on my new ‘stocks i love list’ and will keep an eye on for entry this week.
CRM, NFLX, and LNKD look prime for some calls on a pullback so will watch all three at the open. Here are the strikes I am looking at:
Stock Ticker | Call/Put | Strike | Expiration | Closing Price | Entry Price |
CRM | CALL | $185.00 | Weekly | 0.25 | 0.20 |
SHLD | CALL | $60.00 | April | 0.59 | 0.50 |
NFLX | CALL | $205.00 | Weekly | 0.44 | 0.35 |
LNKD | CALL | $190.00 | Weekly | 0.24 | 0.20 |
Betting on a bounce and thats how I will plan trading this morning.
Lets have a great start to April Options!!
- JB