In this edition of the Hindsight trader blog I am going to go over a few of this week's trades; what I saw in them, why I chose the structure I did, and whether they were successful or not. For the most part this week I focused on selling premium as I anticipated that after the initial gap up this week, volatility will remain low and we will see the market remain in a tight range.
Well Boehner and the rest of the elected politicians did it again, causing a flash crashof sorts in the futures market after they pulled the vote on the Plan B: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-20/futures-flash-crash-es-plummets-limit-down . It’s almost like DeJaVu with the debt ceiling fiasco last summer. The impasse then caused a 4%+ sell off in one day, followed by a nearly 15% drop in a matter of days. Hard to say what happens now, but I am mildly optimistic things wont get as bad this time and we bounce into the weekend. Also remember today is quadruple witching meaning all the option contracts expire today... usually a day with higher volatility.
Here are some of the Analyst upgrades/downgrades today:
(AAPL)
Apple customer service undervalued, says Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo believes that investors are underappreciating the value of Apple's customer service advantage compared with its competitors. The firm think that the recent sell-off in Apple's stock is overdone, and it maintains an Outperform rating on the shares.
(FFIV)
F5 Networks initiated with an Outperform at FBR Capital
Target $120.
Nike downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Janney Capital
Janney downgraded Nike citing valuation. Price target is $110.
(NKE)
Nike price target raised to $115 from $106 at UBS
UBS believes Nike's better than expected Q2 report sets the stage for accelerating EPS growth. The firm said North American futures accelerated and China futures indicate the worst has past. Nike is the firm's top apparel/footwear pick. Shares are Buy rated with a $115 price target, raised from $106.
(RIMM)
Research in Motion stock drops on conference call comments, says Citigroup
Citigroup notes Research in Motion shares sold off last night after it became clear on the earnings conference call that RIM will receive much lower rates on its highly profitable services. Citi says Research in Motion's services will materially and structurally shift lower with the new BB10 products. The firm recommends not chasing the stock and keeps a Sell rating on the name, despite raising its price target to $6 from $5
I plan on waiting a few minutes after the open before pulling the trigger on any bounce plays:
| Stock Ticker | Call/Put | Strike | Expiration |
| ISRG | CALL | $495.00 | weekly |
| AAPL | CALL | $515.00 | weekly |
| NFLX | CALL | $92.50 | weekly |
| NKE | CALL | $105.00 | weekly |
| FFIV | CALL | $97.50 | weekly |
Today is VERY risky so please trade carefully. It is quite possible I may call it a day early today.
Lets have a great trading day!
- Jimmybob
