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1-22-13 Watchlist

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After a long three-day weekend, we come back to mixed/flat futures. Earnings really start to pick up with some big names like ISRG and GOOG after the bell.FFIV, NFLX, MCD, AAPL, and others tomorrow.

 

The Japan’s central bank came out with an unlimited QE program and raised it’s inflation target last night. The Nikkei spiked for a second, then fell 1% before closing down .4% for the day. The Nikkei has been on a monster run, and it was a sell the news event. Considering Japans debt is 200% of its GDP, continued money printing may be a problem down the line, but for now this continues to bode well for world markets. Gold and other commods are getting a small lift from the BOJ news as well.

 

If you missed the week ahead with UPB sunday night, you can find it in the forums here:  https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/showthread.php/246-The-Week-Ahead-Sunday-1-19-12?p=458#post458

 

Here are the Analyst changes today:

 

(CAT)

Piper sees little risk of more Siwei-related charges from Caterpillar

Piper Jaffray believes there is likely at least some value in Siwei's brand and sees little risk of more Siwei-related charges coming from Caterpillar. Piper thinks shares of Caterpillar could see pressure in the near-term following the $580M write-down, but does not believe Caterpillar's long-term competitiveness is threatened. The firm keeps an Overweight rating on shares with a $113 price target.

 

BlackRock price target raised to $273 from $223 at RBC Capital

RBC Capital believes that the strength of BlackRock's strategy is more evident than ever following its December quarter results. RBC thinks the company is one of the most visionary firms in the investing business and it maintains an Outperform rating on the stock.

(AAPL)

Apple price target lowered to $650 from $700 at UBS

UBS cut Apple's price target to $650 from $700 and lowered estimates due to lower iPhone ASP assumptions and expectations for less of a gross margin recovery. Shares remain Buy rated.

 

Apple price target lowered to $600 from $780 at Scotia Capital

Scotia Capital lowered Apple estimates to reflect reduced iPhone 5 expectations. Shares remain Buy rated.

 

(RIMM)

Research in Motion upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at Scotia Capital

Scotia Capital upgraded Research in Motion following reviews of the BB10 on various blogs. The firm said reviews indicate the BB10 has a faster browser and superior screen resolution vs. the iPhone 5 and the ability to multi-task. Scotia expects even modest success of the BB10 will result in significant earnings momentum and upgraded shares to Outperform with a price target of $23 raised from $18.60.

 

AAPL had two more price target reductions today. Guess we will see how well the stock has been priced after the bell tomorrow. Some nice reads about AAPL this weekend here:

 

http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323468604578250332341437210.html?mod=WSJ_business_whatsNews&mg=reno64-wsj

 

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20130122PD212.html

There are rumors of possibly 3 new iphones being released this year. Will be interesting to see if those rumors are true.

 

I wont be playing too many earnings the next two days, and will probably just try to play NFLX for some lotto calls. I love SAM and SHLD here and will look to add to my SAM Feb 155 calls as well as grabbing some SHLD 49.50 calls. Here are the strikes I like:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
SHLD CALL $49.50 weekly 0.30 0.25
SAM CALL $150.00 FEB 0.40 0.25
SINA CALL $60.00 weekly 0.24 0.24
NFLX CALL $125.00 weekly 0.34 0.25

 

 

As per feedback on the watchlist, i will be adding unusual options activity Sometime this week. Please give me feedback in the forum so this watchlist can be a better tool for your trading: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/showthread.php/241-Upgrade-and-Downgrades

 

Lets have a great trading day!

 

  • Jimmybob

1-18-2013 Watchlist

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Here it is the third friday of the new year (option expiration), and we are sitting once again at 5 year highs. We are now a stones throw away from 150 on the SPY, a mark i have been preaching for quite a few months. Once we get there, it will be interesting to see if that area provides serious resistance.

 

Earnings have been decent so far and next week is an exciting one with: GOOG, AAPL, NFLX, FCX, WDC, FFIV, SBUX, MSFT, and many others. Will try and give some thoughts on those during the week ahead on Sunday at 10:30.

 

Futures are flat right now despite China GDP coming in above expectations and the first increase in 7 quarters. China/Japan continue to be a catalyst for world markets so that is a very good sign if we want to see this market rally some more.

 

If you like the analyst changes or have any feedback for the daily watchlist please post here: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/showthread.php/241-Upgrade-and-Downgrades?p=433#post433

 

I will be out in the early morning and wont be around for the open but here are some of the strikes I am looking for on Lotto Friday:

 

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike
CMG CALL $300.00
PCLN CALL $680.00
GOOG CALL $720.00
AAPL CALL $510.00

 

 

 

I still hold calls on SHLD, SODA, BPT, NFLX, SAM, CBS, CMG, ISRG, and some others.

 

Lets have a great close to the week and for Jan monthly options.

 

- JImmybob

1-17-2013 Watchlist

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The market held ground another day and looks ready to break today with jobless claims coming out a few minutes ago at a 5 year low. Earnings continues to roll in with BAC and C reporting decent earnings this morning... both are down pre-market. EBAY reported another stellar quarter after hours, mostly from paypal again, and is trading up PM.

Blackrock beat big on both sides, raised it’s dividend, and added to its stock repurchase plan. The stock is up 4%+ pm and is trading over $230. The $230 calls on the watchlist from yesterday should be looking good.

We have Intel after the bell today, and Morgan Stanley tomorrow. Will cover the earnings plays for next week in the week ahead Sunday at 10:30pm est.

 

An interesting read on what the fed is doing to equities, which is what we have talked about for the past year: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-17/fed-concerned-about-overheated-markets-amid-record-bond-buying.html

 

AAPL bounced out of the 400s in strong fashion yesterday and received some nice analyst comments today from Goldman and JP Morgan. Also a nice read in WSJ about AAPL becoming a value stock and not a growth stock: http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323783704578246173657545416.html?mod=WSJPRO_hps_MIDDLEFifthNews

 

Here are the analyst changes today:

 

(VVUS)

VIVUS downgraded to Sell from Hold at Brean Capital

Brean Capital downgraded VIVUS citing rich valuation and lowered Qsymia estimates

 

(NFLX+)

Netflix price target raised to $102 from $65 at Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray raised its price target for Netflix (NFLX) shares citing increased confidence in the company's ability to maintain competitive differentiation. Piper believes Netflix continues to have the best overall movie/TV subscription streaming library, but says the gap has closed somewhat for high quality movie availability due to EPIX licensing its library to both Amazon (AMZN) and Redbox Instant (CSTR). Piper keeps a Neutral rating on Netflix despite raising its price target to $102.

 

(AAPL)

Apple could report upside to quarter, says Goldman

Goldman believes Apple can report a "healthy" upside to Q1 consensus estimates, particularly on iPhone units and margins. The firm believes shares are factoring in a worse case scenario and that the report could start a recovery in shares. The firm's product shipment estimates are iPhones of 48.4M, iPads of 23.4M, Macs of 5.1M, and iPods of 12.3M. Shares are Buy rated with a $760 price target.

 

(AAPL)

Apple price target lowered to $725 from $770 at JPMorgan

JPMorgan lowered its near-term earnings estimates for Apple citing weaker than expected iPad sales in the December quarter. The firm believes lower iPad shipments could limit share upside in the near-term, but says it remains comfortable with its iPhone estimates. JPMorgan lowered its price target for Apple shares to $725 from $770 while keeping an Overweight rating on the stock.

 

Netflix didn’t pan out yesterday as rumors of Eihorn short caused a sell-off but may recoup the losses today. SHLD looked very good yesterday and hopefully we get some continuation. Need SODA to break $50 today to have a chance on the 52.50s. Took a shot on more BPT 80 calls which may get some life today if it breaks 79(oil being up should help as well)

 

Here are some of the strikes i am looking at:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
BPT CALL $80.00 weekly 0.10 0.10
CBS CALL $43.00 weekly 0.05 0.10
BLK CALL $240.00 weekly 0.20 0.15

 

 

 

Lets have a great day!

 

- Jimmybob

1-15-2013 Watchlist

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Earnings seasons is starting to kick it up a notch with GS and JPM reporting this morning, and EBAY reporting after the bell.  GS smashed estimates and is up nearly 4% PM. JPM beat as well but is down modestly as I write this. Tomorrrow we have C, BAC, BLK, and INTC so those could either provide a boost to the market, or give the market a reason to fade.

 

Only one I will be trying to play is BLK for tomorrow but then will look to play some of the high beta names next week, which we will cover in the week ahead on Sunday Jan 20th.

 

CMG came out with preliminary earnings for Q4 well below estimates on food cost issues. The stock fell 10% and is bouncing a little. Not sure I will be playin CMG on the long side for a bit as it looks like the growth story continues to be on hold.

 

AAPL broke solidly under $500 and it seems to have had a smaller impact on the market then i would have expected.

 

SODA and SHLD broke higher yesterday, only to fade EOD. I still like both here and added 52.50 SODA calls and some SHLD 49 and 50.42 calls.

 

Here are some of the analyst changes this morning:

 

Chipotle reports Q4 preliminary EPS $1.92-$1.97, consensus $2.09

Reports Q4 preliminary revenue $699.2M, consensus $690.86M.

 

(CMG)

Chipotle shares likely to be down meaningfully, says Jefferies

Jefferies expects shares of Chipotle to be down meaningfully after the company preannounced weaker than expected Q4 earnings. The firm says it's becoming increasingly clear that Chipotle's same-store-sales and modest pricing will not maintain margins and could yield 2013 earnings significantly below consensus. Jefferies keeps an Underperform rating on the stock with a $215 price target.

 

(DNKN)

Dunkin' Brands announces plans to enter Southern California

Dunkin' Donuts announced that it is expanding to Southern California. Specifically, the company is recruiting multi-unit franchisees for Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, San Bernardino, Ventura and Orange counties and expects restaurants in these markets will begin to open in 2015. The company is also interested in identifying qualified food service operators for a wide range of non-traditional venues including colleges and universities, casinos, military bases, supermarkets, airports and travel centers. In 2013, the company plans to open 330-360 net new restaurants in the United States with grow

 

CMG)

Chipotle comps likely to bottom at 1% in Q1, says William Blair

William Blair says food inflation pressured Chipotle's Q4 after the company preannounced weaker than expected earnings for the quarter. The firm expects Chipotle's comps to bottom at roughly 1% in Q1 before moving higher on a likely price increase. William Blair views Chipotle's business as very healthy and said it would be opportunistic buyers on share weakness. The firm keeps an Outperform rating on the stock.

 

(WYNN)

Wynn Resorts downgraded to Neutral from Buy at ISI Group

ISI Group downgraded Wynn Resorts due to valuation.

 

 

Here are some of the strikes i am looking at today:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
NFLX CALL $110.00 weekly 0.21 0.18
BLK CALL $230.00 weekly 0.60 0.50
LNKD CALL $120.00 weekly 0.64 0.60

 

 

I like BLK to continue the uptrend and break above $230 for earnings tomorrow. Heck, stock is correcting itself from a YEAR of underperforming the market for the wrong reasons. I think NFLX will get legs today or tomorrow after yesterdays fade and will play $110 calls for a flip. Also think LNKD will get some footing if FB stays green today.

 

That is all for now.. Lets have a great trading day!

- Jimmybob

1-15-2013 Watchlist

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Futures are red but feels somewhat flat this morning with retail numbers due out this morning. Bernacke did not spill any beans or make any market moving remarks yesterday besides making it sound like QE infinity will not end in 2013. The market has closed somewhat flat the last two trading sessions, which is somewhat welcome as consolidation is needed again before we break to $150 on the SPY.

 

Tomorrow kicks off some more serious earnings with JPM before the bell and EBAY after the bell. Not playing those but both could swing the market a bit.

 

All the good news we have seen toward the end of the year on Solar has now turned sour. Another article out today on the oversupply of Solar modules in 2013: http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20130114PD203.html

 

Obviously puts on FSLR would be the play with the $30 probably the best bet. On watch for now but wont play today unless i see some serious volume to the downside.

 

 

Remember that Facebook has an event at 1pm  today so something to keep an eye on. Also, an article in the times today about FB taking over GOOG as top search engine if they added search..  http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/15/technology/fortunes-of-facebook-may-hinge-on-searches.html?ref=business&_r=0

 

DELL had a boatload of upgrades today on the B/O rumors so be a bit wary there trying to play that for now. Here are some the of the analyst changes this morning:

 

(AAPL)

Apple shares likely to rise on strong Q4 results, says Jefferies

Jefferies expects Apple to report strong Q4 results and issue guidance for Q1 slightly above consensus. The firm thinks the stock will rise on the results and reiterates a Buy rating on Apple with an $800 price target.

 

(AAPL)

Apple weakness a buying opportunity, says RW Baird

Baird believes weakness in Apple is a buying opportunity as most demand factors remain favorable. The firm is raising their Q4 iPhone forecast slightly and believes gross margins will benefit from sales of both the iPhone 4 and IPhone 4S. Shares remain Outperform rated with a $750 price target

 

Apple PT Lowered from $660 to $530 at Nomura, Neutral rated

 

 

(MLNX)

Mellanox upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS

UBS upgraded Mellanox (MLNX) and raised estimates above the Street due to increased conviction in InfiniBand adoption and discounted Intel (INTC) risks. Price target raised to $65 from $56.

 

 

I posted my SHLD calls in chat but was out so was unable to post via twitter or text, SHLD was one of those plays that you see going and just trust the gut. I still think she goes over $50 sometime soon as all the ANALysts talk about retail numbers when its not about that, its an asset play.

 

I really like ISRG to keep going, the chart shows plenty of room to $530 or so and I think  it will happen in short order. Will look to grab more calls this morning. I still have SODA calls and think she breaks $50 today finally. Will look to add more calls there as well.

 

Strikes I am watching:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
SODA CALL $50.00 Jan 0.65 0.65
SODA CALL $52.50 Jan 0.20 0.15
ISRG CALL $540.00 JAN (WKLY) 0.55 0.40

 

 

 

I had to take care of something so was traveling yesterday and will not be back home till friday night. Will try my best to be in the chatroom... ect so you should see little or no change from my normal presence.

 

Lets have a great trading day!

 

- jimmybob