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1-30-2012 Watchlist

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Another day, another multi-year. high for the markets. This morning we have ADP numbers, where they beat expectations. 4Q GDP was -.10%, the first time it was negative since the recession. Futures are selling off on the news but I think once again, this is just another opportunity to buy calls.

 

AMZN reported earnings after hours that missed REV and EPS expectations as well as an outlook that was below estimates, but margins improved better then expected and the stock is up $20+ pre-market. After the bell we have FB, which i think will smash estimates, and should help push LNKD to a new all-time high tomorrow.

 

SODA was the play yesterday, and it did faded at the open, but closed flat. CNBC had the SODA president on Fast Money to explain the Superbowl fiasco. He was able to hint at a strong Q and squash concerns over CBS not approving it’s commercial. The stock is up nearly $2 pm, and think it can hit all-time highs in the next few sessions.

 

Below are some of the analysts changes. Amazon had a boatload of upgrades so didnt post them below. Most are price targets of 330 or so.

 

(PCLN)

priceline.com initiated with a Buy at Ascendiant Capital

Target $870.

 

Salesforce.com price target raised to $200 from $180 at Oppenheimer

Oppenheimer increased its price target on Salesforce.com as the firm believes that the company's customers have begun using its products as a data integration solution. The firm expects this trend to accelerate as large companies utilize the cloud to a greater extent and it maintains an Outperform rating on the shares

 

(ICE)

IntercontinentalExchange upgraded to Buy from Neutral at ISI Group

 

(ADSK)

Autodesk upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush

Wedbush upgraded Autodesk due to improving macroeconomic conditions and continued improvement in U.S. architectural activity. Price target raised to $45 from $34. theflyonthewall.com

 

Fossil downgraded to Sell from Hold at Brean Capital

Brean Capital lowered Fossil estimates below the Street given concerns that China is slowing and Europe's domestic markets remain under pressure. Price target is $85.

 

I will be holding my core positions of SAM, LNKD, SHLD, CMG, BPT, TZOO, and SODA.

 

I may look to get two positions for tomorrow earnings and here are the strikes:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
WHR CALL $125.00 FEB 0.31 0.30
DNKN CALL $40.00 FEB 0.25 0.25

 

 

Both stocks are up over the past few months. DNKN has seem many upgrades, but does have a high PE ratio and is near all-time highs. The numbers look pretty easy so think they will beat and stock will near $40. WHR has been on a tear and Sandy should help #’s and complete a blow quarter. Don’t fight the trend and I think WHR breaks into irrational area around $115-120. These are both risky plays as the stocks can be considered priced for perfection already, meaning misses will result in the calls opening at $0.

 

I will post the trades but please dont follow me blindly!

 

I will be holding most of my positions but may lock in some LNKD calls if they go green today.

 

Lets have a great day today!

 

Also:

 

Dont forget about LeeMalones class tomorrow at 4:30pm. They are always great, make sure you register here: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/live-event-classes-jtv/

 

- Jimmybob

1-29-2013 Watchlist

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A nice start to the week as the market held it’s ground but ended the markets winning streak. The futures are red at the moment but not down too much. Seems all the dips are supported the last few weeks so not concerned about any pullbacks, as they are short lived. Quite a few earnings yesterday and this morning. VMW, BMC, STX all bombed and are down big, F beat but is down on europe concerns. HOG, LLY, and PFE beat and look good pre-market.

 

The plan today is to stick with yesterdays winners, as well as possibly adding some $SODA calls for a bounce. I will be watching $AMZN like a hawk, but will be hard pressed to buy any calls as they are so expensive. I have a feeling it will overshoot over $300, but the $310 weekly calls are 1.55!!!!! If the plan changes I will post in chat and twitter today.

 

CMG had price increase from BAC this morning, so continue to like for a $320+ break. LNKD moved nicely and will likely hold my entire position into tomorrow, where I will look to close some out before the close and FB earnings.

 

SHLD surprised me as I thought we had a few days to get in, and I really like her for next week. I was able to get some Feb 16th 52.50 calls @ .30 an they closed at .84. If not in, its possible you could overpay only to watch it pull back a bit, so be a bit careful for now.

 

Here are the analyst changes i like this morning:

 

Chipotle investor sentiment more positive, says BofA/Merrill

BofA/Merrill said Chipotle's pre-announcement a few weeks ago clarified near-term issues and has shifted sentiment positively, allowing investors to focus on long-term fundamentals. The firm expects long-term unit growth and metrics, new businesses, and aggressive buybacks to drive shares. The firm rates Chipotle a Buy with an increased price target of $350, up from $310.

 

Keryx Biopharmaceuticals price target raised to $11 from $3 at Oppenheimer

Oppenheimer increased its target on Keryx after the company reported stronger than expected data for its Phase III trial evaluating Zerenex for the treatment of hyperphosphatemia in dialysis patients. The firm believes that Zerenex is very attractive from a commercial perspective, and it reiterates an Outperform rating on the stock.

 

Seagate investment validates Fusion-io market opportunity, says Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray views Seagate's (STX) $40M investment in Virident as a validation of the overall market opportunity for Fusion-io (FIO). The firm says Virident is the only logical alternative to Fusion-io and that Seagate's investment likely increases the takeover premium Fusion-io will garner. Piper thinks Seagate's investment will not change the competitive dynamic in the space as Virident has already received investments from Intel (INTC), Cisco (CSCO), Micron (MU) and others. The firm keeps an Overweight rating on Fusion-io shares with a $33 price target.

 

(CRM)

Salesforce.com initiated with a Buy at Maxim

Target $200.

 

I will be sticking to the same holdings from yesterday which are SHLD 52.50 FEB calls - CMG 330/335 weekly calls - LNKD 130/135 weekly calls

 

Here are the strikes I am looking to add this morning on SODA :

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
SODA CALL $57.50 FEB 0.40 0.40
SODA CALL $60.00 FEB 0.25 0.15

 

 

I am still in a lot of positions to include BPT, SAM, SBUX, TZOO, and KERX.

 

LeeMalone will be doing another class on using Think or Swim and trading options. The class will be for gold members and above at 4:30 on Thursday. Registration link will be up later today!

 

 

Lets have a great day!!

 

- Jimmybob

1-28-2013 Watchlist

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Another great week in the books, and it has been a phenomenal 2013 so far. Lets see if it continues into Feb. Earnings continue to be a focus with CAT reporting this morning. CAT missed on EPS and Rev and is cautious for 2013, but that looks to be somewhat factored in already and the stock is rallying pre-market.

NFLX looks poised to continue it’s orbit and is up $6 pre-market. CMG was upgraded at Lazard and is up nearly 2% pre-market.

 

If you missed the week ahead last night, you can find it here: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/showthread.php/262-The-Week-Ahead-with-UPB-and-Jimmy-1-27

 

Fitch may change outlook for US credit rating to stable from negative, somewhat good news:

 

Fitch Ratings says the temporary suspension of the debt limit removes the near-term risk to the U.S. 'AAA' rating. Fitch had previously commented that failure to increase the debt ceiling in a timely manner would prompt a review of the U.S. sovereign rating. Without the distraction of a near-term funding crisis for the federal government, Congress and the Administration have the space to focus on the substantive fiscal policy choices necessary to place public finances on a sustainable path over the medium to long-term. In line with Fitch's previous commentary, agreement on a credible medium-term deficit reduction plan consistent with sustaining the economic recovery would likely result in the affirmation of the U.S. 'AAA' rating and revision of the rating Outlook to Stable from Negative. In the absence of such a plan, the Negative Outlook would likely be resolved with a downgrade later in 2013

 

Chipotle upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Lazard Capital

Lazard Capital upgraded Chipotle with a $388 price target on expectations menu pricing and a new catering initiative will drive a reacceleration of same-store-sales growth in 2013.

 

Facebook upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James

Raymond James upgraded Facebook due to increased mobile monetization, new ad formats, improving usage trends, and improving international ad demand. Price target is $38.

 

Ford downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Buckingham

Buckingham downgraded Ford based on pricing pressures in both pick-ups and passenger vehicles as competitors rollout improved models and believes its Q4 results could disappoint tomorrow. Price target is $11

 

Apple downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at RW Baird

RW Baird downgrade shares of Apple (AAPL) citing several near-term risks and lowered its price target for the name to $465 from $570. Baird believes Apple shares can fall further due to consensus expectations being too high and the likely persistence of gross margin concerns. Apple shares closed Friday down $10.62 to $439.88.

 

Transocean upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Guggenheim

Price target is $75.

 

Celgene downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus

Argus downgraded Celgene due to valuation.

 

 

I still love SAM and SODA. Nice read in the WSJ this morning :BEAM a takeover target from WSJ : http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323854904578264004265083348.html?mod=ITP_businessandfinance_7&mg=reno64-wsj

 

Here are the strikes I am looking at today:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
CMG CALL $330.00 Weekly 0.20 0.20
LNKD CALL $130.00 Weekly 0.30 0.30
SHLD CALL $50.00 Feb 18th 0.55 0.50
SHLD CALL $52.50 FEB 18th 0.28 0.25

 

 

With CMG upgrade and folks betting on the company resuming its performance it is used to, think she gets some serious legs under her next few days. $330 offer nice risk v reward, i do currently own 320/325 calls. Best time to grab an option position is when the stock is cold and noone is watching. Think that is the case with SHLD and will try and get some calls before next week when Lampert officially takes over as CEO.

Will also try and play LNKD for FB earnings. News out that Blackrock has taken a stake in twitter that values the company at 9billion, which is only up 600 million from 2011. Folks think that will boost LNKD, SINA, FB.. i am not sure it does , so will wait to see how LNKD reacts at the open.

 

That is all for now. Stay tuned to chat & twitter for possible trades.

 

Lets have another great week!!

 

- Jimmybob

1-25-2013 Watchlist

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What another great day yesterday with NFLX really making some folks day, month, year and TZOO ramping in the morning. Looking forward to today, but will be a bit more cautious on some of the weeklies expiring today and will play maybe a few.

 

That conference in Davos is filled with headlines and bullish comments from everyone but my Grandmother, who is on the ski slopes. It almost shakes me from my short term bullishness. If these folks are bullish, they are already in equities or are maybe they are charitable folks who give the retail traders the heads up, lets us get in, then start buying. Most of these funds are in the market, its the retail sheep who have been shaken out of it. And conferences like this, with bullish remarks written all over it, is the way they will get the sheep back in the corral for slaughter. When there is noone left to buy because everyone is in is when this market falls. AAPL is a great example of that. More on this sometime soon!

 

Draghi issued some more bullish comments on the eurozone mess, and Japan nikkei ripped over 2% higher over night, nearing 11,000. Worst thing you can do is try and time the top and get in the way of these bulls. For now I play the trend. We battled 150 on the SPY yesterday and looks to be a battle area again today.

 

Not too many analyst changes today, below are the ones i like to include ADSK’s second upgrade in 2 days, with GS putting her on the conviction buy list.

 

 

SBUX)

Starbucks global comp sales beat expectations, says Bernstein

Bernstein reports that Starbucks' 7% global comparative sales increase in its Q1 beat expectations for a 5.5% gain. The firm thinks the company's channel development sales will likely re accelerate in coming quarters and it maintains a $65 price target and Outperform rating on the shares

 

Starbucks PT lifted to $56 share fr. $55: Barclays

 

(SBUX)

Starbucks price target raised to $63 from $53 at RBC Capital

After Starbucks reported in-line Q1 results, RBC Capital believes that the company's sales momentum has continued in Q2. The firm thinks that the company's earnings visibility is high, and that it has several growth drivers. But RBC believes these factors are baked into the stock price and it maintains a Sector Perform rating on the stock

ADSK)

Autodesk upgraded to Conviction Buy from Sell at Goldman

Goldman upgraded Autodesk to Conviction Buy from Sell due to improved execution and an acceleration in non-residential construction end-markets. The firm believes Suite revenue will accelerate due to improved macro trends. Price target raised to $45 from $25

 

Nomura maintains priceline.com Incorporated (NASDAQ: PCLN) with a Buy and raises the price target from $730.00 to $820.00

 

SBUX and VRSN reported good earnings ah’s and both should ramp higher. I love SAM and here is my write up as promised: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/boston-beer-co-inc-sam-crafting-profits-for-shareholders/

 

I am holding weekly calls on PCLN, GOOG, NFLX, and SINA. The SINA 60s I sold at .7 for a 75% haircut and i have 62.50s expiring worthless. I still love SHLD and will try for some calls sometime today or monday. Here are the few strikes I am looking at today:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
PCLN CALL $690.00 Weekly 0.65 0.50
PCLN CALL $695.00 Weekly 0.30 0.25
GOOG CALL $760.00 Weekly 0.95 0.50
SHLD CALL $52.50 FEB 0.35 0.30

 

 

As always we will be holding our week ahead webinar at 10:30pm Sunday, and hope to see you there!

 

Lets have a great day!

 

- jimmybob

1-24-13 Watchlist

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Today is setting up to be a great day for those in NFLX calls as the stock is up nearly 40% after reporting a surprise profit and some nice sub numbers. I hold 36 of the 125 weekly calls avgd at .15 and will put a limit order to sell half @ $20 at open. WIll have to check back this weekend to see if thats my biggest bagger, if not it sure will be close.

 

Worst thing to do is trade like this will happen everyday. Most times holding calls that far out of the money will result in complete loss. Have a strategy and stick with it is key.

 

I will dabble a little today but will mostly watch the action. Still love BPT, SAM, SINA, SODA, and GOOG.

 

Still like SHLD but will buy the dip ,SHLD article in WSJ on Kmart, somewhat irrelevant but may give bears some ammo this morning: http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323783704578247762547817102.html?mod=WSJ_business_whatsNews&mg=reno64-wsj

 

TZOO reported some nice earnings Finally! and will get a relief rally and squeeze to $22+. One of the trades I will make today and will post on my twiter and in chat.

 

UPB said yesterday AAPL would be off 10% and the market would shake it off. Might be a bigger call then the NFLX ones. Amazing. Tons of PT downgrades on AAPL and some more bad press: Article on decreasing demand for Ipad : http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20130123PD216.html

 

Here are the analyst changes today:

 

(NFLX)

Netflix price target raised to $120 from $80 at Barclays

Barclays raised Netflix estimates citing the strong Q4 report. Shares are Equal Weight rated.

 

(NFLX)

Netflix price target raised to $160 from $100 at Citigroup

Citigroup raised its estimates and price target materially for Netflix following the company's better than expected Q4 results and outlook. Citi says Netflix's fundamentals are positive and improving and reiterates a Buy rating on the stock.

 

NFLX)

Netflix upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Raymond James

Raymond James upgraded Netflix based on solid sub growth and an improved margin outlook

 

(NFLX)

Netflix upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Macquarie

Macquarie upgraded Netflix citing the strong Q4 report and guidance. Price target is $120

 

(NFLX)

Netflix upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan

JPMorgan upgraded Netflix and said the company has improved its brand, service, and content, and is back on track towards disrupting traditional TV. Price target raised to $180 form $88. Note the is the fourth upgrade of the day.

 

Citi cuts Apple price target to $500 from $575

 

Apple downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at Scotia Capital

Scotia downgraded Apple following the Q1 report citing declining gross margins and slowing earnings growth. Price target lowered to $528 from $600.

 

AAPL)

Apple price target lowered to $575 from $800 at Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank says the combination of margin pressure and decelerating iPhone growth indicated in Apple's guidance raises growth concerns. The firm lowered its estimates for the company after the Q1 results and dropped its price target for shares to $575, but its views shares as undervalued at around $460. Deutsche keeps a Buy rating on Apple.

 

AAPL)

Apple downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies

Jefferies downgraded Apple following the company's Q1 results citing the slowdown in iPhone sales and expectations that margins will continue to fall. The firm dropped its price target for shares to $500 from $800. Note Apple shares were also downgraded this morning at Scotia Capital.

 

(BBBY)

Bed Bath & Beyond upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer

Oppenheimer upgraded Bed Bath & Beyond with a $71 price target citing valuation and expectations the company's trends could rebound meaningfully in coming quarters.

 

(FFIV)

F5 Networks price target raised to $125 from $105 at Citigroup

Citigroup raised its price target for F5 Networks citing improving industry fundamentals and solid company execution after F5's Q1 results. The firm keeps a Buy rating on the name

 

(ADSK)

Autodesk upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital

RBC Capital upgraded Autodesk and expects the company to benefit from improving macro trends, increased adoption of suites and Cloud, and margin expansion. Price target raised to $50 from $33.

 

 

 

Here are the strikes I am looking at:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
PCLN CALL $695.00 Weekly 0.45 0.30
TZOO CALL $22.50 Feb 0.20 0.40
SBUX CALL $57.50 Weekly 0.27 0.25

 

 

 

Will also look to continue to add to my SAM position with $155 calls.

 

Lets have another great trading day!

 

- Jimmybob