Yesterday just seconds after the FED released one of its least anticipated statements since the financial crisis, the VIX plummeted to a new post financial crisis low. It broke below that 10 figure.
The last time the VIX was under 10, it was February of 2007.
Was the VIX print of 9.97 a 'misprint'? A fat finger move. An erroneous byte of data? I think not.
VIX under 10 for the first time in 10 years Feb 2007 pic.twitter.com/wAEAA8PzIP
— UPBOptionMil (@UPBOptionMil) February 1, 2017
It's an hour until the open and all through the market, banks had lots of cash but no where to park it. Yields were too low, stock prices at record highs, this has to fall apart at some point, why should I buy?
The market is safe, they said with a grin Lehman is gone and Enron is a has been. So hold up your nose, and nod your big head, just buy up those stocks, volatility is dead.
And I heard her exclaim as she flapped her wings until she was out of sight, Low interest rates for all, and for all a good night
A low VIX reading symbolizes a market in a constant state of shoulder shrug. Every reason to sell has been met with simply a shoulder shrug.
Yesterdays brief move under 10 was the shoulder shrug to rule them all. Sure the VIX popped back up after breaking below 10. But it will be back. It will be back....
VIX single digits for the first time since 2007 - 9.97 pic.twitter.com/UTFuvgjqjp
— UPBOptionMil (@UPBOptionMil) February 1, 2017
Just a few days ago the VIX was up 20%.
VIX +20% pic.twitter.com/SWYLsJA00j
— UPBOptionMil (@UPBOptionMil) January 30, 2017
and yet yesterday it falls to a new 10 year low.
The Low VIX reading continues to point to a market that just doesn't care, and thus far its been for good reason. Prices sit near all time record highs. Anyone who shrugged off every named excuse to sell has done quite well since the March 2009 lows.
Was yesterdays 9.97 shrug the nadir for the VIX? Was the the proverbial blow off bottom for the VIX?
Only time will tell for sure, but if you've followed the VIX for any length of time the last 7+ years you know these odd 'paints' have a habit of getting filled.
Which means the VIX is heading back under 10 in the short to medium term. And the shruggers will keep on shrugging their way to fresh record highs.