Tag Archives: spy

It’s All Swiss To Me

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It's hard to believe only a week's time has transpired since the markets opened for trade on Monday.  Speaking of Monday, the markets are closed this Monday, what better time to start doing all those things you promised yourself you would do in 2015.

This is perhaps the most exciting week we've had in the markets since the announcement that Tim Giethner was going to run the Treasury and oh boy was that ever exciting.  There is no better way to maximize the affect of asset price moving events than to announce them on the day when every option and futures contract on the planet is set to expire. (cue the sarcastic grunt here)

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The Recap – Currency Chaos

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Today, if you were up at 4:30am, you were able to witness the biggest currency move in the history of man.  Like an 18 year old heading off to college for the first time, the Swiss Franc was set free.  Anyone whose been to college knows what happens next.

2,000 PIPS is a term normally utilized over a span of years, much like the DJIA rose 3,000 points that year, or the S&P 500 was up 14% in 2013.  Currencies just don't move 15% in seconds.  Just like the price of bananas doesn't jump 100% on your trip to the register to pay for them.

But we are slowly coming the grips with the nasty side affects of Central Bank manipulation.  

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The Recap

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A sharp late day rally left stocks off their lows, or OTL, which seems to be the theme in 2015.  Yesteryday's reversal almost brought stocks back into positive territory, today's snap back could only turn today's losses from large one's into modest ones.

It's already been a volatile week full of wild prices swings and collapses, including copper, which was down some 7%+ last night before recovering some of its losses and ending.... you guessed it... Off The Lows or OTL.

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Breakout/Breakdown Coming Very Soon for S&P 500

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For the last few weeks the market has been range bound with a slight negative bias. We are currently sitting in-between the 50dma and the 100dma, but more importantly we are only $7 above the 200dma. With the VIX at 20, I believe that we are heading for a breakdown, probably on the heels of either inaction on the part of central banks, a further breakdown in oil, or weak earnings. There are a few technical signs that point to a bigger breakdown. First of which is a head and shoulders pattern.

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