Tag Archives: LNKD

2-27-2013

 

 

After quite a volatile session in the morning where the SPY moved to 150.14, only to fall to 148.79, the market finally found some footing and melted higher at the end of the day to close at 150. After being up over 4% in the morning, the VIX closed down 11%. Right now futures are slightly red so we shall see what today brings. PCLN and ZAGG reported after hours last night. Both beat and both are up nicely pre-market. My PCLN MARCH 835 calls will most likely open bidless unless PCLN ramps at the open. Will need to see $740+ today. UPB was all over ZAGG and that stock looks set to go 8.50+ today. FSLR is down after revenue outlook came in way below estimates. Nice job on puts in chat from RetiredMM and others.

 

A nice read for those still holding SAM calls like myself:

Beer drinking up for first time since 2008: http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324662404578329570791028376.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

 

Some nice upgrades today for LNKD and OPEN. Still have LNKD calls and will look to add more today.

 

Here are the rest of the analyst changes i liked this morning:

 

 

priceline.com price target raised $825 from $770 at Goldman

Goldman continues to believe Priceline is well positioned to benefit from growing segment growth within online travel and sees risk/reward as favorable. Shares are Buy rated.

priceline.com price target raised to $835 from $740 at JPMorgan

JPMorgan raised its price target for priceline.com citing the company's strong Q4 results and Q1 outlook. The firm believes continued bookings acceleration could drive shares higher and reiterates an Overweight rating on the stock.

priceline.com price target raised to $800 from $750 at Cantor

Cantor increased its target on priceline.com after the company reported higher than expected Q4 adjusted EPS. The firm thinks the company's efforts to gain market share in the Asia-Pacific and Latin American regions are paying off, but it expects margins to be pressured by higher investments over the next several quarters. The firm maintains a Buy rating on the shares.

priceline.com price target raised to $800 from $750 at Benchmark Co.

Benchmark Co. raised its price target for priceline.com following the company's Q4 results and keeps a Buy rating on the stock.

priceline.com price target raised to $800 from $756 at Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray believes priceline.com reported strong Q4 results with accelerating bookings growth. The firm raised its price target for shares to $800 and maintains an Overweight rating on the name.

G)

Google upgraded at BofA/Merrill

As previously reported, BofA/Merrill upgraded Googleto Buy from Neutral. The firm believes Google has an opportunity to accelerate ex-FX revenue and for multiple expansion in 2H 2013 driven by the Enhanced Campaigns rollout, increased revenues from Product Listing Ads, potential Motorola product launches. As part of the upgrade the firm raised its price target to $920 from $790.

(FSLR)

First Solar downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill

 

LinkedIn price target raised to $200 from $160 at Evercore

Evercore believes Linkedin's multiple will expand towards its software peers driven by revenue growth, business mix, gross margins and OCF. Shares are Overweight rated

Cracker Barrel valuation range raised to $72-$74 from $64-$68 at Wells Fargo

Wells Fargo increased its valuation range on Cracker Barrel after the company reported Q2 same-store sales above its peer average. The firm, however, believes that the company's valuation largely reflects its fundamental momentum and it maintains a Market Perform rating

 

Again, until i get some right here will be keeping it small. OPEN should ramp over 52 week high in the next day or two so will try to add more calls preferably the 57.50s. Never added SHLD yesterday so will look for some today:

 

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
SHLD CALL $55.42 March 0.43 0.43
OPEN CALL $57.50 March 0.55 0.45
OPEN CALL $60.00 March 0.25 0.25

 

 

Lets have a great day!!

 

- JB

2-13-2013 Watch List

 

 

The market closed at another high yesterday and looks set to start green today. Volume continues to be somewhat light, but to me that means there are less sellers. Expecting more of the same today with a low volume day that closes green or close to it.

 

Yesterdays action on FOSL disappointed as it bolted out of the gate to 115, only to fade the rest of the day and close near lows at 110.65 . Playing history can sometimes work, but when it doesnt, it can be painful. BWLD also reported earnings yesterday but issued a cautious guidance. The stock sold off over 6% and is red pre-market. Looks like analysts may overlook the outlook as excessively cautious and the stock may see 85+ today. Will play it that way.

 

Quite a few folks were asking about when i sell an option or when i put in limits. I figure I will do a webinar or write a piece on that when i get a chance. But here is a quick summary:

 

I do not put in stops, and I post my sells via twitter and chatroom. If I dont post a sell on a position i am in, that usually means it expired worthless, unless I forgot to post it. The site is a tool in your trading arsenal. We are not a buy and sell recommendation site per say.

The best way to use this site if you are knew to options is paper trade and learn. Veteran traders use the chatroom as a news source and for trading ideas. And I know their are a bunch of folks who are just there to follow me or other traders. I will go into this is more detail some other time, just wanted to provide a little clarity here.

 

Here are some of the analyst changes today:

 

Netflix price target raised to $205 from $180 at JPMorgan

JPMorgan raised its price target for Netflix shares after meeting with management and reiterates an Overweight rating on the stock. The firm said its meetings indicated House of Cards is off to a strong start and that Netflix is back on track toward disrupting the linear TV market. JPMorgan says original programming could help drive subscriber upside in 2013

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Buffalo Wild Wings EPS guidance looks conservative, says RBC Capital

RBC Capital continues to believe that Buffalo Wild Wings could generate significantly higher than expected EPS, and the firm maintains an Outperform rating on the stock.

Groupon upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Sterne Agee

Sterne Agee upgraded Groupon based on valuation discount and a constructive long-term view of its business. Price target is $9.

Fossil price target raised to $130 from $108 at Citigroup

Citigroup raised its price target for Fossil following the company's Q4 results and says the stock remains one of its top picks for 2013. The firm reiterates a Buy rating on the stock

 

I am in quite a few positions (and I dont see much for the open)so watchlist is small this morning:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
BWLD CALL $85.00 Weekly 2.00 0.10
WTW CALL $65.00 March 0.60 0.60
WTW CALL $67.50 March 0.50 0.45

 

 

If I see BWLD starting to get a bid at the open, will try for some lotto calls for a possible reversal. Still like WTW but premiums have increased everyday even though the stock is down. March calls only cost 10% more for 4 more weeks, so that is the better play. Will try 65/67.50 calls.

 

I still love SAM, SHLD, SODA, and OPEN amongst the positions I hold. Will update via twitter and chat throughout the day.

 

Happy Trading!

 

- jimmybob

2-11-2013 Watch List

 

The Market looks to start today in the green, as futures are up this morning.  Europe stocks are flat to green while asia and japan markets were closed for holidays. We have quite a few earnings plays on deck this week, as well as the state of the union address tomorrow night.

Here is last nights week ahead webinar for those that missed it: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/showthread.php/299-The-Week-Ahead-with-UPB-and-Jimmy-2-10-13

 

I really like WTW this week for earnings (weds ah’s), as well as FOSL and BWLD. All are call biased and will look to get a position in all today if possible.

 

The market may flounder a bit this week and continue the pattern of dips being bought up. Expect bearish headlines to increase as it’s very easy to stoke fears in a market that looks overbought to the naked eye. Still think the trend is up, and will let you know when i change my mind.

 

Here are some of the analyst changes today to include a monster upgrade of NKE by MS:

 

LinkedIn downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Northland Securities

Northland downgraded Linkedin due to valuation.

Apple weakness creates an attractive entry point, says Cowen

Cowen believes iPhone 5 share adoption has been hampered by the slow rate of approval of LTE networks, its non-support of key LTE spectrum bands, lack of commercial relationships with leading LTE operators, and the low number of 4G LTE networks relative to 3G. The firm believes investors have mistakenly assumed market issues are due to weakening product competitiveness, which has created a favorable entlry point. Shares are Outperform rated.

Moody's litigation risks should be manageable, says Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray said it likes the risk/reward in shares of Moody's over the next 12-24 months as it believes the company's litigation risks should be manageable. Piper thinks two year upside in shares could be $90 and keeps an Overweight rating on the name with a $59 12-month price target.

(NKE)

Nike upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan

JPMorgan upgraded Nike due to robust top-line growth, pipe-line expansion, margin opportunities, China stabilization, and buybacks. The firm raised its price target to $64 from $50.

Fossil downgraded to Hold from Buy at Benchmark Co.

Benchmark Co. downgraded Fossil citing valuation and its expectations that the company's 2013 outlook will be at best in-line with consensus estimates. The firm keeps a $105 price target for shares. Note Fossil reports Q4 results tomorrow, February 12

LIke I said in the week ahead, I still love DNKN, SAM, SODA, and SHLD and may add to those positions this week.

 

Here are the strikes I am looking for today:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
FOSL CALL $125.00 Weekly 0.55 0.40
FOSL CALL $130.00 Weekly 0.30 0.25
WTW CALL $62.50 Weekly 0.75 0.50
WTW CALL $65.00 Weekly 0.40 0.20
BWLD CALL $85.00 weekly 0.95 0.60

 

 

In all likelihood I will wait till the end of the day to grab WTW and BWLD calls, if i get them at all. They seem a bit pricey and would hope to get in a bit cheaper. Think FOSL will move 15%+ after earnings and will take a shot at possibly $125s. If they are too expensive I will try for $130s. Remember folks, earnings are a crap shoot. It could go either way. I am just looking at the past history of the stock as a guage for tomorrows move.

Most times on FOSL you can play options at the open after they report and avoid the risk of a move in the wrong direction(or now move at all).

 

I will update via twitter and the chatroom on any changes and entries.

 

Lets have another great week!

 

- Jimmybob

LinkedIn (LNKD) Finally Hit $150 on Blow-out Earnings Report

LinkedInAudit

It was 6 months later then we expected, but LinkedIn (LNKD) finally hit the $150 target we have been calling for since early spring. It wasn't an easy ride, and there were plenty of bumps in the road, but in order to win in this rigged market, one needs to have conviction. Here are some of our posts over the past year on the issue : August ; May ;  April ; March ; and February .

If there is one thing bears can learn from this is that fundamentals do not always tell the story. Folks have been clamoring for a pullback ever since the P/E ratio eclipsed 700. Next it was the bears warning folks about the 'alarming' amount of insider sales. Do you invest money in the directors ability to value the company, or to return shareholder value??!??!?!?  Bears were doing the former and obviously had it wrong.

Our conviction allowed us to purchase some Feb 16th $145 calls before the close on Thursday at .41 which we alerted to our chatroom as well as private twitter feed:

jimmyatoptions LNKD

 

Those calls hit 7.85 on Friday, so our $410 investment was worth $7,850 less then 24 hours later. We did sell half of them at $5.40 and hold the rest for next week :

02/08/2013  09:53:06 Sold 5 LNKD Feb 16 2013 145.0 Call @ 5.4

LNKD 145 feb 16th

We put the weekly LinkedIn(LNKD) calls on our watchlist in the morning as a risky trade, as they expire the same day. But thought they might offer a good risk vs. reward scenario. We have a Dittotrade.com account where followers get in on our trades automatically , and were able to get some good positions at the open on the 145 and 150 calls:

LNKD DITTOTRADE 2-8

The 145 calls we bought at .39/.43 hit $6.92 for a 1500%+ gain, and the $150s we bought at .08/.09 hit 2.25 for a 2200%+ gain. It was a great day for some of the followers. Moral of the story is tune out the noise and focus on your trade. Would expect LinkedIn(LNKD) to trade in the 148-160 range short term. Below is chart we posted  last week, where accumulation pointed to an impending large move to the upside:

LNKD 1-29

 

Stay tuned for more updates in the coming weeks on one of our favorite stocks, LinkedIn(LNKD)

1-30-2012 Watchlist

 

Another day, another multi-year. high for the markets. This morning we have ADP numbers, where they beat expectations. 4Q GDP was -.10%, the first time it was negative since the recession. Futures are selling off on the news but I think once again, this is just another opportunity to buy calls.

 

AMZN reported earnings after hours that missed REV and EPS expectations as well as an outlook that was below estimates, but margins improved better then expected and the stock is up $20+ pre-market. After the bell we have FB, which i think will smash estimates, and should help push LNKD to a new all-time high tomorrow.

 

SODA was the play yesterday, and it did faded at the open, but closed flat. CNBC had the SODA president on Fast Money to explain the Superbowl fiasco. He was able to hint at a strong Q and squash concerns over CBS not approving it’s commercial. The stock is up nearly $2 pm, and think it can hit all-time highs in the next few sessions.

 

Below are some of the analysts changes. Amazon had a boatload of upgrades so didnt post them below. Most are price targets of 330 or so.

 

(PCLN)

priceline.com initiated with a Buy at Ascendiant Capital

Target $870.

 

Salesforce.com price target raised to $200 from $180 at Oppenheimer

Oppenheimer increased its price target on Salesforce.com as the firm believes that the company's customers have begun using its products as a data integration solution. The firm expects this trend to accelerate as large companies utilize the cloud to a greater extent and it maintains an Outperform rating on the shares

 

(ICE)

IntercontinentalExchange upgraded to Buy from Neutral at ISI Group

 

(ADSK)

Autodesk upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush

Wedbush upgraded Autodesk due to improving macroeconomic conditions and continued improvement in U.S. architectural activity. Price target raised to $45 from $34. theflyonthewall.com

 

Fossil downgraded to Sell from Hold at Brean Capital

Brean Capital lowered Fossil estimates below the Street given concerns that China is slowing and Europe's domestic markets remain under pressure. Price target is $85.

 

I will be holding my core positions of SAM, LNKD, SHLD, CMG, BPT, TZOO, and SODA.

 

I may look to get two positions for tomorrow earnings and here are the strikes:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
WHR CALL $125.00 FEB 0.31 0.30
DNKN CALL $40.00 FEB 0.25 0.25

 

 

Both stocks are up over the past few months. DNKN has seem many upgrades, but does have a high PE ratio and is near all-time highs. The numbers look pretty easy so think they will beat and stock will near $40. WHR has been on a tear and Sandy should help #’s and complete a blow quarter. Don’t fight the trend and I think WHR breaks into irrational area around $115-120. These are both risky plays as the stocks can be considered priced for perfection already, meaning misses will result in the calls opening at $0.

 

I will post the trades but please dont follow me blindly!

 

I will be holding most of my positions but may lock in some LNKD calls if they go green today.

 

Lets have a great day today!

 

Also:

 

Dont forget about LeeMalones class tomorrow at 4:30pm. They are always great, make sure you register here: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/live-event-classes-jtv/

 

- Jimmybob