Tag Archives: LNKD

Two Stocks On the Move

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After doing my normal research over the weekend, and preparing for the Week Ahead Webinar, I came up with my normal "Stocks I Really Like" list. This list changes week to week, but does have some of the usual  suspects.

I already held a position in all four of the stocks, but was looking to possibly add to my position at the open. Only 1 of the four performed well today, and that was mainly due to a positive write-up in Barron's over the weekend.

For those that do not know, those four stocks were; Western Union (WU), Baidu (BIDU), OpenTable (OPEN), and Sears Holdings (SHLD). I did add to my position in Baidu(BIDU) with some more $100 weekly calls @ .16. So why you ask, is the title of this post "Two Stocks on the Move" when I am discussing ones that did not? Well that is because this market can give you opportunities at anytime, and I had to adjust my strategy for the day.

One of the stocks that moved out of the gate this morning was Netflix(NFLX). I spoke a few times over the past week about the channel i was watching from 209-224. Netflix(NFLX) broke under the $209 channel last week, and figured we would not see the stock above $210 for sometime. But news about more Disney content coming to Netflix(NFLX) helped spark shares higher, as well as Ichan saying he has not sold a share. Today's action was very telling, and once it broke $224 I started looking for a position in the calls thinking today is the start of a new uptrend. I did get some of the $255 calls @ .36, and think the stock heads over $240 sometime this week. Below is the chart I made for the Week Ahead Webinar the Sunday before Netflix(NFLX) earnings, when the stock was under $170. The chart shows there is plenty of room to the upside, even with the recent move.

NFLX 5-13 - small

 

The next stock is another favorite we have played before... Wynn Resorts (WYNN). The stock closed today at multi-year highs, and looks like its ready to breakout in a major way. We grabbed the $145 weekly calls @ .19 and may look to get some more positions this week. The chart below shows the channel and the breakout that could happen.

WYNN 5-13 - small

 

We will update on the watchlist this morning on these trades, as well as some others.

Happy Trading!

- JB

4-4-13 Watchlist

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The market pulled back yesterday as the ADP report missed expectations and folks took the opportunity to lock some profits. Unlike most of these pullbacks, there was limited dip buying until the very end of the day when the SPY jumped back over $155 and closed at $155.23. I guess we will have to wait longer for the SPY to close above the intraday high. This morning we have initial Jobless claims which came in worse then expected and is now at a 4 month high. Whether this is another reason to take profits or not will be seen. Futures dipped after the news and looks like the bright green open will be flat at minimum. Still think we are in a heads bulls win, tails bears lose environment for the next few months or until the unemployment goes under 7%.

Commodities continue to get punished with Gold and SLV buckling. Both should continue a downward spiral, which again raises the question ... where are folks to put their money to get a ROI?

Japan announced some extreme policies to, once again, try to kickstart their economy after years of deflation and slow/negative growth.

The US dollar is also stronger this morning.

 

FFIV broke to 92.50 yesterday and the 92.50 calls were a nice 3 bagger. CMG touched 330 then pulled back, still like her here. SODA broke under 50 and touch 48. Still have the 55 calls but they are not looking pretty.

 

Here are the morning analyst changes:

 

 

 

LULU lululemon checks show mild impact from luon issue, says William Blair

William Blair said its channel checks indicate a mild initial sales impact from lululemon's black luon quality shortfall. The firm believes management is taking swift action to address quality-control issues, and points out the company indicated last night that its Q1 earnings guidance is intact. William Blair continues to recommend purchase of lululemon shares on the recent pullback and keeps an Outperform rating on the name.

PNRA Goldman upgraded Panera based on strong unit growth trends, solid same-store-sales, increasing margins, and robust FCF deployment. Price target to $215 from $186.

DPZ Domino's Pizza downgraded to Buy from Conviction Buy at Goldman

Goldman removed Domino's from its Conviction Buy List due to share outperformance. Price target raised to $60 from $55.

SRPT Sarepta initiated with an Outperform at RW Baird

Target $63.

LULU lululemon downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital

RBC Capital downgraded lululemon due valuation and increased uncertainty following the departure of its Chief Product Officer. Price target lowered to $70 from $80.

PANL Universal Display upgraded to Buy from Hold at Needham

Needham upgraded Universal Display citing the recent pullback in shares and ramping revenue from Samsung with the launch of the Galaxy S4. The firm has a $35 price target for shares.

PPO Polypore upgraded to Buy from Hold at Topeka

Topeka upgraded Polypore citing valuation, lowered expectations, and expectations for a demand pick-up. Price target is $46.

MON Monsanto price target raised to $118-$120 from $104-$106 at Wells Fargo

Wells Fargo increased its target on Monsanto after the company reported higher than expected Q2 EPS. The firm notes that the company will look to use share buybacks to reduce the share count, and Wells keeps an Outperform rating on the shares.

SCHN Schnitzer Steel shares attractive at current levels, says DA Davidson

After Schnitzer reported slightly higher than expected Q2 EPS but lower than expected revenue, DA Davidson believes that Schnitzer's business could rebound quickly and the firm notes that the stock has reached multi-year lows. The firm keeps a Buy rating on the shares.

 

 

Will continue to hold my positions and may look to grab a few more today. Here are the strikes I am watching:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
ISRG CALL $515.00 Weekly 0.45 0.35
ISRG CALL $530.00 Apr 15, 2013 NA 0.60
PCLN CALL $715.00 Weekly 0.52 0.35

 

 

ISRG chart shows possible breakout to $510 coming, volume yesterday leads me to believe it happens very soon. PCLN looks ready as well, just needs to hold over $705 today.

 

I had some issues putting the wrong restrictions on the blog post yesterday. Going forward I will put the watch list in the forum as well.

 

Stay tuned to chat and twitter for more updates. Lets have a great day!

 

- JB

 

4-2-2013 Watch List

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Quarter 2 started out in the red with the SPY down .40%. The VIX closed up 7% and closed at 13.58. I still think the VIX sees sub $10 in the next few months despite all the folks clamoring for a pullback. Historically Quarter 2 is the worst quarter for the market in recent years, and has seen 5%+ pullbacks in the last few years, where Quarter 1 and 4 have been green, and Quarter 3 has been flat.

 

Today we have have sales numbers for GM and F as well as Factory orders. Everyone will also continue to focus on the job numbers coming friday.

 

Bought the SODA April 55 calls @ .30/.35 yesterday and alerted the trade via the text alert system. As promised, will try and have an update on the blog soon after the alert goes out, so folks have an idea on the reasoning and strategy : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/trade-via-text-alert-today/

 

The only other trade I made yesterday was buying the NFLX 200 calls @ .32 later in the day. Still think NFLX treks over $200 sometime soon, and will continue to place bets on it when i can.

 

Here are the analyst changes today:

 

SNDK SanDisk recommended into Q1 reporta at Nomura

Nomura would be a buyer of Sandisk into the Q1 report as it expects a beat and raise in full year revenue and margin guidance due to pricing strength and the weak Yen. Share are Buy rated with a $60 price target.

TXN Texas Instruments downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel

Stifel downgraded Texas Instruments as the firm believes that the company's orders have slowed recently.

NDAQ NASDAQ downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Evercore

FFIV F5 Networks upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at RW Baird

Baird upgraded F5 Networks following positive checks that indicate healthy demand in core markets, traction in Security, a new product cycle, and valuation. Price target is $110.

AAPL iPhone profits likely peaked in 2012, says Jefferies

Jefferies said its global analysis of smartphone markets indicated that profits for Apple's (AAPL) iPhone likely peaked in 2012. The firm concluded that most worldwide smartphone growth going forward will come at prices below $200 per phone, suggesting a low-cost iPhone at $350-$450 may not be cheap enough. Jefferies sees risk to its 2014 earnings estimates for Apple, which it points out are already 20% below consensus expectations. The firm has a Hold rating on shares of Apple with a $420 price target.

BWLD Buffalo Wild Wings initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse

Target $92.

LNKD LinkedIn initiated with a Neutral at UBS

Target $180.

GOOG Google initiated with a Buy at UBS

Target $945.

AAPL Apple downgraded to Buy from Conviction Buy at Goldman

Goldman removed Apple from its Conviction Buy List and said the recent product cycle hasn't resulted in as much new user growth or market share as it had anticipated. The firm sees considerable uncertainty regarding the impact of new product refreshes and believes it will be difficult to meet March and June quarter Street expectations. The analyst maintains Apple's Buy rating and reduced its price target to $575 from $660.

 

 

Will be watching a few at open. Still haven’t added a position in OPEN calls yet, and will look again today. Corn prices continue to fall, and hit limit down for a bit on Monday. Folks used the higher corn prices in the past, as a reason to sell CMG so think this actually maybe a catalyst for a move higher. Here is the link to the WSJ article: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324883604578396592983643754.html . Its actually about farmers swtiching from rice to corn and soybeans, but speaks to decrease in corn prices. Also, CMG bollinger bands are getting tight, which is usually a good indicator of a larger move coming (whether up or down). Last, but not least, will try for FFIV calls one more time. Upgraded today and like i said 2 weeks ago, she is ready to bounce in a major way.

 

Here are the strikes on watch today:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
OPEN CALL $70.00 April 0.25 0.30
CMG CALL $335.00 Weekly 0.35 0.35
FFIV CALL $92.50 Weekly 0.18 0.30

 

 

Stay tuned to twitter and chat for any update.

 

Lets have a great day!

 

- JB

3-4-2013 Watch List

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We start the first full week of March with futures red. Asia sold off overnight as some of the housing stocks in China hit limit down on concerns that Government actions may hinder growth. Japan was the only green market as stronger hints of increasing the easing programs lifted stocks. Europe is mixed this morning and futures are off their lows.

 

With earnings season dwindling down, it will be time to look for some overbought/oversold stocks to play some trends. I will have a list up in the forum tomorrow.

 

If you missed the week ahead last night, here it is: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/showthread.php/342-The-Week-Ahead-with-UPB-and-JImmy-3-3-2013

 

Also, LeeMalone will be hosting a Webinar Thursday at 4:30, the registration link will be up later today and will be in the watchlist going forward.

 

It seems like a slow morning in regards to analyst changes, but below are a few that stood out:

 

Yahoo! upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays

Barclays upgraded Yahoo! and said its minority stakes in Alibaba and Yahoo! Japan are not fully reflected in valuation. The analyst now assumes Alibaba is worth is $55B, which equates to more than $2/share to Yahoo!. The firm sees further upside to shares upon monitization of assets. Price target raised to $26 from $22.

MRK)

Merck upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill

(ULTA)

Ulta Salon initiated with a Buy at Sterne Agee

Target $102.

Macy's among better positioned deprtment stores, says Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank expects Macy's to benefit from further enhancement to its omnichannel strategy this year and the firm thinks that Macy's is one of the higher income focused retailers that is well-positioned in the current environment. The firm raised its target on the stock to $47 from $43 and maintains a Buy rating.

 

Will look to add to positions in SODA, SAM, and OPEN as I think all three are in the midst of a multi-day/week trend higher.

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
SAM CALL $165.00 March 0.45 0.40
OPEN CALL $65.00 March 0.30 0.25
SODA CALL $52.50 March 0.30 0.30

 

 

May also look to get some BNNY calls on any dip on offering news.

 

Lets have a great Monday!

 

- JB