We all know that December is seasonally a strong month, one of the strongest of the year in fact. What many do not know is that the 1st two weeks of December actually have a bearish seasonality. We are seeing that right now, as the SPY opened the month down .75%. Despite the fact that there are a few technical indicators that are bearish (such as the RSI being near 70 which is overbought and the MACD rolling over)I think that this mini dip is setting up nicely for many long trades into year-end. In the article I will go over a few observations that I had today and how I plan to act tomorrow and the coming days.
There seems to be a strong potential for the market heading to the 50DMA sometime this month. Yet, in the grand scheme of things I still remain bullish. If you look back at a longer-term chart, the month of September has just been a consolidation month, where we see some of the excess removed from the market. The daily chart is seems to indicate be a prolonged bull flag from the SPY rally in August. There are many stocks that have been sold, mainly the high beta stocks, to allocate for Alibaba. But, many hedge funds did not end up getting a big stake in Alibaba. In my opinion, this means that the money will come back to work soon; it will come back to the tech sector.