Tag Archives: aapl
Another day, another 4 1/2 year high hit. Think this will be the story through september. Yesterday was a solid day with a last minute sell-off, which seems to be the action as of late. The Germany concerns about ratifying the ECB bond purchases became a non-issue and stocks are moving up this morning. I am probably going to be reducing positions heading into Thursday as I think the risk for a sell-off is very possible, although i think we ramp higher.. but you have to minimize risk!
AAPL releases details on it's new iphone and should provide the stock with some WILD swings. Will not be playing it at all as its anyones guess what happens there.
Plays im in or watching:
MAKO - Still like the $20 calls as i think the stock breaks the $18.50 resistance from yesterday and doesnt look back. I maybe wrong but we have 8 days till expiry. Risky play..
LNKD - thought it would need a day or two breather, but looks like it may get some legs on FB move. Will look for $120/$125 sept calls.. either this week or next
AIG - think the anchor holding the stock down is gone, and it will move to $35 or so. Already have the 33.50 and 34.50 calls. May add to the 34.50s if they are cheap.
SODA - have the 40/42.50/45 Sept calls. I still like her and with GMCR still brewing, should see continued upside.
Others I am in : PCLN 650 calls/ WYNN 110 calls / NFLX 62.50 calls / CMG $370 calls
Thats all for now! Lets have a great WEDNESDAY!!!!
- Jimmybob
9-7 Watchlist
It seems like just yesterday when the world thought Europe's financial system was going to collapse on the weight of its severe debt issues. We posted this in june : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2012/the-bizzaro-jerry/ . Fast forward 3 months and we are now over 4 year highs. Amazing! Are we better off now? Hard to say, but i guess the market thinks we are.
We had the August job numbers this morning. Unemployment dropped to 8.1% but less jobs were created then expected. Either way I think we ramp on these numbers. We are in a HEADS Bulls win TAILS bears lose environment.
I think we have some laggards follow through today, although I wouldnt call a 1%+ move being a laggard, but they did trail the indices. AAPL and PCLN are both on my early morning lotto radar for some calls today. PCLN was upgraded to buy and should see a 3-5%+ move. AAPL needs to break $680, then i think it flies to $690... Will look for $625/630 calls on PCLN and $685/690 on AAPL - PURE LOTTO PLAYS!
Others on watch today : CRM for the 150 break.
Still holding CMG calls and will add $310 calls on $305 break for lotto.
ISRG is another lotto. Will watch $500 calls for lotto.
Thats all for now. Lets finish the week GREEN!!!
- JImmybob
Bull or Bear…. That is The Question
To be a bull, or not to be, that is the question:
Whether 'tis Nobler to be a bear,
To take humble possession of puts,
Reveling in the prospects of financial collapse.
Or to take nothing at all,
T0 buy a Call and live valiantly in the light;
Or possess a Put and be scowled upon,
Unsheathe thy sword and duel to the death,
To the winner the spoils of a lifetime,
the loser becomes just that.
There are many dumbfounded souls today scratching their heads and saying to themselves "how the %*#@ did we make a new high for the year?" We are only weeks removed from another escalation in the European Crisis. The Euro was supposed to plunge below $1.20 versus the dollar? WTF happened? Economic data had been pointing to another U.S. recession. Bernacke did not give the market the QE it wanted. Draghi's words ended up being hallow after all. How the $*%$ did we just make new highs for the year, new multi-year highs, with all this *$&# unresolved?
If trading this market was was easy as watching CNBC everybody would be millionaires. The market has a habit of inflicting pain upon as many participants as possible and that is what we have had since June 4th, and ultimately since the March 2009 lows. Those who observed the obvious and positioned themselves for downside were blind sided after the head fake post Draghi. No one wants to believe that stocks can go up when everything else looks so bad. When we have growth slowing, the looming "fiscal cliff", high unemployment, stocks should be falling, not hitting new highs for the year.
But here we are. The question is, will we hit new all time highs. AAPL just did today, and yesterday, and Friday. Can we see the rally we've enjoyed since June 4th continue? Am I a bull or a bear right here?
Some great questions. Today we saw our first real weakness this month. Stocks hit their highs and faded, although many stocks were able to hold onto their gains. We are back in the channel again and while I am a bear at heart ( we are screwed long term) everything is pointing up. We could see a move back under $140 and still remain in this channel. I don't think $140 will fall easily, and to get there we need to break $141 on the SPY which will not break easily.
Right here remain extra nimble, trade the intra-day moves (I traded AAPL calls 4x today all trades lasting no more than 10 minutes for profits), and know that this market still has the invisible hand holding it up. The bias is up, until we break this channel which, absent big event we don't know about, won't happen this month or next month.
Bull or Bear.... That is The Question. In reality the answer, for a short term options trader, is both. The trend is your friend, but intra-day moves can wipe out hard earned profits.
AAPL Which Way Will It Go George?
AAPL reports earnings after the bell tomorrow and it is one of the most anticipated events each earnings season. From a strictly out of the money, close to expiration, option perspective AAPL has been a loser over the long haul. The main reason being the options price in a big move and this move usually does not happen, which means I likely will not play AAPL options for earnings, although I may get into a trade the day before and sell on Thursday for the premium build up near the close. Option prices are showing a market that is anticipating another volatile post earnings session for AAPL, which means only one thing....
AAPL, like NFLX ( a stock that has a similar out of the money price build up), will ultimately trade no more than 2% in either direction. This will kill all the out of the money speculators who are paying BMW type money for Ford Pinto type quality. Look at some of the strikes - the $660 strike is at $1.00. That is a full 10% move. The $540 strike puts are going for $.85. The odds are against either type of move, however where I forced to trade AAPL for earnings I would get equally insane and go even farther out of the money. If AAPL doesn't make my anticipated 2% move in either direction, I think it will pull a 15% move which would make those out of the money speculators very happy. If you share my view the $680 strike closed at $.30 and would be worth $10 if we get a 15% move from AAPL. The $520 puts are also going for $.30. CMG's 20%+ slide showed on Thursday night and Friday that anything is possible these days when it comes to earnings reports.
I may change my mind with AAPL tomorrow and take a small position in both the puts and calls, essentially a strangle.
The $680 calls for $.30 - 8 contracts = cost $240 (+ commission)
The $520 puts for $.30 - 8 contracts = cost $240 (+ commission)
With every analyst and his brother maintaining buy ratings on AAPL and $1,000+ price targets I do think the stock will head higher. It's done nothing but go up since late 2008. Heading into earnings back then I was buying up $90 calls. To think less than 4 years later I am looking at the $680 calls. LEAPS!
The answer to the title of my post is quite simple....we don't care. We don't care where AAPL goes when we have a strangle. That is the luxury of trading stock options. All we need is a big move.
