At around this time last evening as I was writing what to expect today, I also mused that if this was indeed 2015, that stock would levitate to Monday's levels. Leaving the mid-week sell-off nothing but a distant memory. Another failed chance for that highly anticipated correction to occur.
After today's sharp jobs report rally - 2015 is indeed alive and well. Three months of consolidation continues. While prices gyrate on a daily basis it feels like each week ends precisely where we started. I imagine closing the markets this week and just saying stocks were flat wouldn't sit well with the HFT's.
Instead early in the week Yellen said stocks were over valued - the market fell. An hour into Thursdays session the market realized this was the same Yellen keeping ZIRP and forcing the world into risky assets and stocks took off.
Sandwiched in between Mondays opening bell and Fridays closing bell was the same 100 or so words we've been hearing about since March 2009 just re-arranged in a different way. Debt, Greece, Interest Rates, Bonds, Jobs, Unemployment, Poor, Shrinking, Bubble, Expanding, Crash, Unsustainable, Growth......
A wonderful tweet from Howard Lindzon encapsulates this historic bull market and rally to record stock prices.
It is now almost five months into 2015, has the easy money been made?
Great trade served out on $CF from JB and the om private twitter account and in the chat room. What a tremendous way to end the trading week ---- $.25 to $10.00 in a few days.
It was that kind of wild week. Some terribly big option moves - both for stocks going down (at the start of the week) and up (at the end of the week)
Today's 'Goldilocks' jobs report sparked a sharp rally.
From yesterdays recap:
I was looking for the VIX to drop today.
The VIX ended the day down 15% and back to the level it started the week at:
Stocks to rally on a "Goldilocks" report:
Bonds. The Initial reaction for the bond market was strength and then as the day progressed - weakness. $TLT the 20 yr bond etf closed right at support. A bullseye to end the week.
The ton this week ( three consecutive triple 20's) was thrown by the YELP call buyers. While 2015 has been fraught with consolidation, there have been some unbelievable late week moves in the momentum names. A few weeks ago $CMG gave a 40,000%+ return. $AMZN post earnings brought home the bacon. And this week $YELP was the talk of the town. The $41.50 strike has trades go for as little as $.01 earlier this week. Today those options were over $8.00 each.
$YELP $41.50 Calls
$IWM
$IWM held the line yet again at $120. I think its setting up nicely for more gains next week
My $IWM chart from earlier this week is still very much relevant as are the other charts I shared:
$IWM
More Charts
$TLT
$TSLA
$GOOGL $GOOG
$CAT
$TWTR
Finally a chart I shared last night, one that puts the market into perspective. The $SPY from a different view.
It remains a falling knife, cutting off the fingers of anyone brave enough to buy it, or flipped right side up anyone brave enough to short it. Today provided ample proof of that. The shorts again paid the price.
Until the trend changes anyone screaming sell the rips quickly loses their voice.
For next week S&P500 futures will need a strong start to avert this choppy consolidation.
Have a great weekend and a Happy Mothers Day.