Back to back strong days to start the week, and we are now a stones throw away form all-time highs on the SPY. Now the only thing in the way is the FOMC statement & forecast at 2pm, and Big Ben's press conference at 2:30. Expect some possible extreme volatility after 2pm, and any hint of the taper may push folks to the exits in quick fashion.   It was about a year ago when a Fed announcement caused a 300 pt drop in the dow over a day or two as folks wanting Big Ben to announce/hint at a new round of QE were disappointed. Not saying the same thing will happen, just that it can happen.

 

Weight loss stocks could see a boost today as eating two many Big Macs is a diseases:

 

The American Medical Association has officially recognized obesity as a disease:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/19/business/ama-recognizes-obesity-as-a-disease.html?ref=business&_r=0

“The decision could cause more insurance companies to pay for obesity treatments and spur more doctors to take more steps to combat the condition, the newspaper stated”

 

Watch WTW VVUS ARNA NTRI for some moves in the coming days.

 

Here are some of todays analyst changes:

 

Topeka Capital maintains Shutterfly, Inc. (NASDAQ: SFLY) with a Buy and raises the price target from $54.00 to $62.00.

 

AEO American Eagle downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup

Citigroup downgraded American Eagle citing increased competition and expectations for traffic share losses. The firm lowered its price target for shares to $21 from $23

 

TSO Tesaro downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital

BMO Capital downgraded Tesaro citing valuation as it sees limited upside potential in the near-term. The firm keeps a $36 price target for shares

 

AIG price target raised to $56 from $52 at Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank said it has greater confidence that AIG is on track to achieve a 90%-95% combined ratio in its P&C operations by 2015 following meetings with management. The firm upped its price target for AIG shares to $56 and keeps a Buy rating on the name

 

ADBE Adobe upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill

Price target is $57

 

BBRY BlackBerry downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Bernstein

Bernstein downgraded BlackBerry following checks that indicate consumer uptake is slow and that the second half will disappoint investor expectations. The firm sees increased risk of only partial BB10 adoption with corporate customers and believes consensus estimates have risen too high. Price target lowered to $10 from $15

 

 

CMG Chipotle won't benefit significantly from Qdoba closures, says Wells Fargo

After Jack in the Box (JACK) decided to close 67 of its underperforming Qdoba restaurants, Wells Fargo estimates that the closures will lift Chipotle's (CMG) same-store sales by between 0.18 percentage points and 0.36 percentage points in 2014. The firm keeps a Market Perform rating on Chipotle

 

 

V Visa initiated with an Overweight at Morgan Stanley

Target $214

 

EXPE Data bodes well for Expedia Q2 results, says Cantor

Cantor believes that various data points, including strong April and May paid click volume growth on Expedia.com in April and May, bode well for the company's Q2 results. The firm keeps a $75 price target and Buy rating on the shares

SODA SodaStream downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at William Blair

 

 

Finally added some SFLY calls and will look for JULY 60s at the open. Still like BPT, CME, SODA, PCLN, LNKD and holding a bunch of calls expiring friday to include VMW, DUST and quite a few others.

 

Here are the strikes I am looking at today:

 

 

Stock Ticker	Call/Put	Strike	Expiration	Closing Price	Entry Price
SFLY	CALL	$60.00	JULY	0.45	0.40
MA	CALL	$605.00	Weekly	0.35	0.25

 

 

Today could be one of those great days like September when QE infinity was announced, or it could be a day to sit on your hands. Most times its best to do the latter.

 

Lets have a great day!

 

- JB

 

Monday seems to be the new ‘Green Day’ as the markets started the week off with a bang, once again. Although at times in the afternoon, it felt like things were about to turn as an article in the FT enticed some sellers: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1f6e6926-d75e-11e2-8279-00144feab7de.html#axzz2WVCJWKpK

 

The hype continues to mount around Wednesdays FOMC statement, forecast, and press conference at 2pm. Expect some extreme volatility similar to Sept 2012 when QE infinity was announced.

Its quite possible the market moves 1-2% in either direction but holding weeklies will be very risky(and possibly very rewarding).

 

Housing starts and CPI came out this morning. Housing starts were up, but below expectations. CPI was up .2% and is now up 1.4% for the year. Not nearly enough for those ‘inflation fear’ folks. Futures pulled back a bit but are still green after the data.

The Last two Tuesdays we have seen some serious sell-offs so will be interesting to see if we can buck the trend.

 

Here are some of the analyst changes for today:

 

 

 

 

SODA SodaStream price target raised to $85 from $68 at Oppenheimer

Oppenheimer increased its price target on SodaStream as the firm is encouraged by its channel checks and the company's recent news, including its partnership with KitchenAid. The firm reports that some retailers are seeing increases in sales of the company's consumables, and Oppenheimer reiterates an Outperform rating on the stock

 

LNKD LinkedIn initiated with an Outperform at Pacific Crest

Target $215

 

JACK Jack in the Box Qdoba closings positive, says Oppenheimer

After Jack in the Box announced that it would close 20% of company owned Qdoba restaurants, Oppenheimer thinks the move leaves the company in better position to generate profitable growth. The firm expects the company's multiple to expand and keeps an Outperform rating on the stock

 

WLT Walter Energy has almost 200% upside, says Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley continues to believe Walter Energy will be able to work with banks to relax its covenants and that a "full-blown" refinancing will not be necessary. The analyst said balance sheet conditions are manageable and management is adamant it will not raise equity. The firm reiterates its Overweight rating and $47 price target

 

KKD Krispy Kreme checks suggest Q2 upside, says Longbow

Longbow's checks indicate indicates Q2 upside to 7.5% sales growth from Krispy Kreme company owned stores and 8.2% from franchises. The firm has increased confidence in its Q2 EPS estimate of 16c vs. the Street's 15c EPS estimate and reiterates its Buy rating

 

SODA SodaStream price target raised to $85 from $68 at Oppenheimer

Oppenheimer increased its price target on SodaStream as the firm is encouraged by its channel checks and the company's recent news, including its partnership with KitchenAid. The firm reports that some retailers are seeing increases in sales of the company's consumables, and Oppenheimer reiterates an Outperform rating on the stock

 

DDD 3D Systems price target raised to $55 from $50 at Canaccord

Canaccord raised 3D Systems price target to $55 following the upbeat investor day which provided additional details on the Phenix acquisition, channel opportunities, and maintained guidance. Shares are Buy rated

 

ISRG Intuitive Surgical initiated with an Outperform at Wedbush

Wedbush finds Intuitive Surgical's risk/reward profile attractive at current levels given the company's underpenetrated procedure opportunity and launch of new instruments. The firm started shares with an Outperform rating and $580 price target

 

 

I like LNKD to breakout like friday after being given an Outperform this morning atPacific Crest. I also like NFLX to continue to ascend towards its multi-year high this week and will look for more calls.

 

 

Stock Ticker	Call/Put	Strike	Expiration	Closing Price	Entry Price
LNKD	CALL	$190.00	Weekly	0.26	0.26
NFLX	CALL	$255.00	Weekly	0.22	0.22

 

 

Lets have a great day!

 

- JB

 

It was another week of large up and down swings in equities and currencies as the market finished red for the third time in the past four weeks. The Nikkei continued its dramatic slide and the Yen found some footing. Are we at the beginning stages of a massive correction? I still think we have yet to see the highs for the year, but time will tell. The SPY held the 50dma once again and the FOMC meeting and press conference on Wednesday can go a long way to bringing stability and more gains to this market.

 

Some big news this morning on a few of my favorite stocks. NFLX scored a huge deal with dreamworks and should shut up those who were blasting them for losing Nickelodeon. SODA inked a deal with WHR to put their sparkling water maker in the Kitchen-aid line of refrigerators. TSLA was upgrade to $150 by an analyst and is seeing some love this morning.

 

Futures are green this morning as global markets rallied overnight. Lets see if those gains hold or the rug gets pulled out like Friday and Tuesday.

 

Here are some of the analyst changes for today:

 

 

 

CRM Salesforce.com valuation very attractive, says Pacific Crest

Pacific Crest believes that investors have become overly negative towards Salesforce.com (CRM), as the firm expects the company's organic new business growth to exceed bear expectations by a wide margin. The firm is upbeat on the company's acquisition of ExactTarget (ET), and it keeps an Outperform rating on Salesforce.com

 

 

BRCM Broadcom weakness overdone, says Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley believes Broadcom weakness due to Samsung momentum is overdone. The analyst met with CEO Scott McGregor, who did not address Samsung momentum, but did say steep short ramps are normal in new phones and not to jump to conclusions. The firm expects shares to bounce back quickly and reiterates its Overweight rating

 

WLT Walter Energy weakness an overreaction, says Davenport

Davenport said Walter Energy weakness related to the cancellation of a portion of its existing debt is an overreaction. The firm believes the cancellation is due to less favorable credit markets recently and not a sign the company was unable to secure a refinancing deal The analyst expects and believes the company will be able to amend financial covenants on existing bank debt and which will allow the company additional time to refinance. Shares are Buy rated with a $30 price target

 

ROST Ross Stores recommended on pullbacks at Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley recommends adding to Ross Stores positions on pullbacks. The firm believes top-line momentum and peak margins are sustainable and that guidance is beatable. The firm recommends buying shares on pullbacks given fair valuation and maintains its Equal Weight rating

 

FIO Fusion-io FY14 revenue estimate cut below Street at Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray lowered its FY14 revenue estimate for Fusion-io (FIO) to $550M from $585M, below the consensus of $572M, citing uncertain spending at strategic customers, especially Apple (AAPL). Piper dropped its price target for shares to $15 from $18 and keeps a Neutral rating on the name

 

 

TSLA Tesla initiated with an Overweight at Global Equities

Global Equities believes Tesla is creating a new industry called Transport-as-a-Service, and the firm estimates the market could reach $100B, with Tesla capturing 60% share. The firm started Tesla shares with an Overweight rating and $150 price target

 

 

 

SODA Deal :

KitchenAid and SodaStream enter into collaboration agreement

KitchenAid, a maker of premium kitchen appliances and culinary tools and a brand of Whirlpool (WHR) and SodaStream (SODA) announced a collaboration that will introduce a jointly developed home carbonation system to the KitchenAid portfolio. The soda maker is expected to be available at retail in the fourth quarter of 2013. The terms of the deal were not disclosed

 

 

I like SODA on this WHR news and think the stock heads over $80 very soon. Will look to get some 80/82.50C.  I also like WYNN as it has fallen to 50dma support and looks ready to break back over $140. Will get some 140/142.50 weekly calls.

 

Here are the strikes I am looking at for the open:

 

 

Stock Ticker	Call/Put	Strike	Expiration	Closing Price	Entry Price
SODA	CALL	$80.00	Weekly	0.55	0.50
SODA	CALL	$82.50	Weekly	0.35	0.35
WYNN	CALL	$142.50	Weekly	0.27	0.27

 

 

I had some technical issues getting the Week Ahead Webinar going last night and do apologize for those that look forward to it. I will try and put together a webinar or class for later this week and of course the week ahead will continue as it has for the past 7 months at 10:30 this coming Sunday.

 

Lets have a great day today!

 

- JB

 

The SPY had the biggest rally in 5 months yesterday and finally bounced on some decent economic numbers, as well as folks starting to believe the Great Taper is an act we wont see until 2014. Here is the WSJ article folks are citing that helped propel the market at the end of the day : http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/06/13/fed-likely-to-push-back-on-market-expectations-of-rate-increase/?KEYWORDS=hilsenrat

 

The PPI number came out a bit higher then expected, the first sign of possible inflation i have seen in a few weeks. Gold and Silver spiked on the news and will see if Gold can hang below $1400. Of course there is a nice article on inflation in the WSJ this morning: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324049504578543732746191690.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

 

Quick quote from the article as another data point showing deflationary concerns:

 

Quote:

 

The latest shifts in expectations are happening against a backdrop of sharp declines in measures of actual inflation. The Labor Department reported Thursday that prices paid for U.S. exports of consumer goods, excluding autos, fell 1.3% over the last year, the biggest drop since the agency started keeping track in 1983. Prices of goods imported into the U.S. also fell.

 

Time will tell if this inflation/deflation theme starts to take hold.

Here are some of the analyst changes

 

 

GME GameStop upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer

Oppenheimer upgraded GameStop on expectations the upcoming launches of Xbox One and PS4 will drive sales and earnings growth. The firm raised its price target for shares to $50 from $27

 

CSTR Coinstar price target raised to $75 from $65 at Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray raised its price target for Coinstar shares to $75 saying its sum of the parts analysis indicates the stock is undervalued. Piper sees the sale of Coinstar's Coin business as a potential path for the company and keeps an Overweight rating on the name

BUD AB InBev coverage reinstated with an Overweight at JPMorgan

 

IBM IBM revenue can grow again in second half, says Citigroup

Citigroup says that while the Street remains pessimistic, it believes IBM's revenue will begin to grow again in the second half of 2013. The firm reiterates a Buy rating on the stock with a $250 price targe

 

SRPT Leerink remains cautious on accelerated approval for Sarepta

Leerink continues to believe the FDA may be reluctant to approve Sarepta's eteplirsen on the Phase II data alone. The firm says Sarepta expects to meet with the FDA in Q3 and update investors thereafter. It thinks an announcement that an additional study is needed for approval could send the stock lower. Leerink reiterates a Market Perform rating on Sarepta

 

AXP American Express downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays

Barclays downgraded American Express due to valuation. Price target raised to $82 from $72

 

SCTY SolarCity upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse

Credit Suisse upgraded SolarCity following discussion with the California Public Utilities Commission, or CPUC. The firm believes the CPUC has softened its stance and will continue to support distributed solar generation even if net metering caps are not raised by 2015, removing an overhang. Price target raised to $52 from $28

 

MAKO data validates knee, hip applications, says Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray says clinical data presented this week validates the benefits of MAKO Surgical's knee and hip applications and implants. Piper reiterates an Overweight rating on the stock with a $23 price target

CME Group upgraded to Buy from Neutral at ISI Group

 

VRTX Vertex CF data positive, says RBC Capital

RBC Capital believes that data on Vertex's CF drug looked good and lowers the risk of the treatment. The firm expects the company to report good Phase III results for the drug in summer 2014, and it reiterates an Outperform rating on the stock

 

WHR Whirlpool to benefit from Brazil stimulus, says BofA/Merrill

The Brazilian government announced a new $8.7B stimulus package that includes appliances on Wednesday. BofA/Merrill expects cheap loans to support 2H 2013 sales and reiterates its Buy rating and $165 price target on Whirlpool

 

 

 

CME had another upgrade this morning and looks set to break over $75. Still have my VMW calls , TSLA calls, along with quite a few other positions and also added NFLX / BIDU calls yesterday. Will keep it small and look for some lottos once i get a sense for the market direction after the open.

 

Here are the lottos I am looking at:

 

 

Stock Ticker	Call/Put	Strike	Expiration	Closing Price	Entry Price
GOOG	CALL	$890.00	Weekly	0.40	0.40
BIDU	CALL	$102.00	Weekly	0.19	0.19
PCLN	CALL	$825.00	Weekly	0.95	0.45

 

 

Lets have a great day and see you Sunday at 10:30pm for the week ahead!

 

- JB