A nice start to the week as the market ramped out of the gate, and closed solidly in the green, although still below the 50dma on the SPY. Overnight futures were modestly higher, but have slowly turned red as Europe focuses a bit on Greece. With a lack of news events, I think the market should melt higher into Friday, when the much anticipated June employment numbers come out.

Looks like after digesting the FED and Big Ben’s plans, the market is back to good news is good news, and bad news is good news.

Tons of folks coming out on Gold last few days, which only emboldens my case for gold to go under $1100 in the coming weeks. A few miners were downgraded today and I will focus on getting some calls on DUST and puts on GDX at the open, while also looking for continued movement in MLNX, NFLX, TSLA, and others.

 

Earnings officially kick off next week with Alcoa on July 8th, so the fun should be back!

 

Here are some of the analyst changes today:

 

 

 

YELP Yelp initiated with an Outperform at Pacific Crest

Target $40

 

JPM JPMorgan upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James

As previously reported, Raymond James upgraded JPMorgan to Strong Buy from Outperform. The firm upgraded shares due to strong EPS growth and reduced risk from the London Whale incident. Price target raised to $64 from $55

 

CME CME Group downgraded at Raymond James

As previously reported, Raymond James downgraded CME Group to Market Perform from Outperform. The firm downgraded shares due to valuation

 

ZNGA Zynga CEO transition a positive, says Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray believes a negative overhang is removed from Zynga shares with the naming of Don Mattrick as CEO. Piper says Mattrick has “as good a background in the gaming space as anyone," but adds Zynga's fundamentals remain challenged. The firm keeps a Neutral rating on the stock

 

INSM Insmed sell-off overdone, says UBS

UBS believes the sell-off in Insmed may be overdone but clearly there is pressure on NTM to deliver. The company expects to release full data at the NACF meeting in October. Shares are Buy rated with a $17.50 price target

 

GME GameStop can beat profit expectations, says Oppenheimer

After meeting with GameStop's management, Oppenheimer believes that investors continue to underestimate the company's profitability going forward. The firm thinks the company is well-positioned to benefit from digital distribution and new revenue streams, and it keeps an Outperform rating on the shares

 

GG Goldcorp downgraded to Underperform from Hold at Jefferies

Jefferies downgraded Goldcorp to Underperform and lowered its price target for shares to $19 from $27 after lowering its gold price forecast to $1,250 from $1,500. The firm believes gold stocks have further downside

 

m: Las Vegas Sands upgraded to Buy from Neutral at ISI Group :

 

DNKN Dunkin' Brands initiated with a Buy at Lazard Capital

Target $51

 

QIHU Qihoo 360 price target raised to $65 from $39 at Citigroup

Citigroup believes Qihoo 360 is positioned to become a mobile market leader in China and that the Street is not factoring in the company's mobile potential. Citi expects shares to move higher as the market realizes this growth potential and upped its price target for the stock to $65 from $39. The firm keeps a Buy rating on the name

 

 

Here are some of the positions I am looking at for the open :

 

 

Stock Ticker	Call/Put	Strike	Expiration	Closing Price	Entry Price
DUST	CALL	$215.00	July	0.95	0.75
GDX	PUT	$20.00	August	0.28	0.26

 

 

 

Lets have a great day!

 

- JB

 

 

After last weeks turbulent start, the market found its footing and the SPY closed back over $160, but below the 50dma. Still want to see a close above that and hope that happens today or tomorrow. All eyes were on Chinas manufacturing numbers overnight, which came in somewhat as expected and did not show contraction. Today we have the June ISM numbers which could give more insight to inflation/deflation and would be worrisome if it continues to hold under the 50 mark.

 

Spoke about quite a few stocks for this week on the Webinar last night, here it is for those that missed it : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/showthread.php/452-The-Week-Ahead-with-UPB-and-JB-6-30

 

Added MLNX to the stocks I really like list, and put PCLN on watch for a possible multi-year breakout this week.

 

Here are some of the analyst changes for today:

 

 

FFIV F5 Networks upgraded to Buy from Hold at Needham

Needham upgraded F5 Networks due to valuation and believes concerns about the company's virtualization positioning and technology are overblown. Price target $85

 

 

BIIB Biogen price target raised to $251 from $229 at Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray raised its price target for Biogen citing the strength of the U.S. launch for Tecfidera. Piper continues to see risk for to Tecfidera’s NAS status in Europe even after the CHMP gave Sanofi’s Aubagio the status and keeps a Neutral rating on shares of Biogen

 

 

QIHU Qihoo 360 price target raised to $55 from $49 at Stifel

Stifel increased its target on Qihoo based on what the firm sees as the company’s accelerating revenue growth and innovation. The firm notes that the company is launching a new mobile search engine and two Wifi wireless router models in order to address mobile Internet user needs. The firm keeps a Buy rating on the stock

 

AAPL Apple upgraded at Raymond James

As previously reported, Raymond James upgraded Apple to Strong Buy from Outperform. The analyst believes near-term financial trends will stabilize near-term and improve in the June quarter and views valuation as attractive. Price target remains $600

 

TSLA Tesla price target raised to $130 from $70 at Jefferies

Jefferies raised its price target for Tesla shares to $130 from $70 saying it sees potential upside to the company's sales and production. The firm believes there is likely upside to Tesla's prior Q2 guidance for deliveries of 4,500 units as well as its 2013 guidance of 21,000 units. Jefferies keeps a Buy rating on the stock

 

PVH PVH Corp. added to Top Picks Live list at Citigroup

Citigroup added PVH Corp. to its Top Picks Live list on expectations the company will outperform peers over the next 12 months. Citi keeps a Buy rating on the stock with a $144 price target

 

CRM Salesforce.com pullback a buying opportunity, says Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank views the recent pullback in shares of Salesforce.com due to concerns over deferred commission as a buying opportunity. The firm reiterates a Buy rating on the stock with a $57 price target

 

REGN Regeneron upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray upgraded Regeneron citing the recent pullback in shares and continued EYLEA growth. The firm maintains a $274 price target for shares

 

MNST Monster Beverage estimates raised above consensus at Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley raised Monster Beverage estimates further above Street estimates due to better than expected US scanner data and May shipments. The analyst believes Monster will beat estimates for the rest of the year driven by easier comps, a rebound at gas and convenience stores, shipments, and reduced healthcare concerns. Share are Overweight rated with a $70 price target, up from $65

 

 

Macau numbers up 21% yoy and MGM was upgraded meaning some of the casino stocks could have a fun day. WYNN calls maybe on my diet this morning. GOLD spiked nicely overnight but has been fading ever since europe opened. May look to grab the puts I talked about last night and use the opportunity to grab some deep out of the money calls on DUST to go with my 240 July call. Adding BPT and SAM to the list this morning as well. Keep your eyes on PCLN for a break above 834.97 as well, thats where I will go in some 860 calls.

Its a short week with the market closing early on Wednesday and closed all day thursday, so play accordingly!

 

Here are the strikes I am looking at for the open:

 

 

Stock Ticker	Call/Put	Strike	Expiration	Closing Price	Entry Price
WYNN	CALL	$134.00	Weekly	0.24	0.18
GLD	PUT	$114.00	Weekly	0.73	0.50
BPT	CALL	$100.00	July	0.40	0.30
SAM	CALL	$180.00	July	0.95	0.50

 

 

Lets have a great day!!

 

- JB

 

The Market rallied for the 3rd consecutive day as the SPY broke solidly above $160 and closed at 161.08, just below the 50dma of 161.47. Futures were green overnight but have since faded to flat/slightly red. Will be interesting to see if we can muster a close above the 50dma on the SPY, if we cannot then I may get a little more cautious then I have been over the past 1 1/2 years.

NKE reported earnings last night that beat expectations, but concerns over China on the conference call, had folks selling. Analysts think this is a buying opportunity and I tend to agree here and may try for some calls at the open if it stays down.

BBRY reported a surprise loss and the shares are getting destroyed pre-market. I will not be playing it, and havent played it for sometime, but hope folks in do well.

 

If you missed it, here are my thoughts on Gold and Silver as they continue to take a beating: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/where-gold-and-silver-is-headed-over-the-next-few-weeks/

 

Here are some of the analyst changes for today:

 

 

Apple stock could climb above $500, says Pacific Crest

Pacific Crest believes that iPhone unit volumes will stay healthy through the launch of new devices later this year. The firm believes that cost savings will help keep iPhone gross margins stable, although it contends that iPad demand is trending below its expectations. The firm thinks the stock could reach the high end of its $430-$530 fair value range, although it keeps a Sector Perform rating on the shares

 

 

SINA upgraded to Hold from Sell at Maxim

Maxim upgraded SINA to Hold on expectations margins will improve as Weibo revenue ramps

 

BIIB Data suggests Q2 Tecfidera sales of $71M-$120M, says Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank says IMS data indicates U.S. sales of Biogen's multiple sclerosis drug Tecfidera reached $71M-$120M in Q2, above the consensus estimate of $64M. Deutsche added that scripts for the week ending June 21 rose 1% week-over-week to 3,153. The firm reiterates a Buy rating on Biogen shares with a $240 price target

 

FSLR First Solar upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus

Argus upgraded First Solar with a $55 price target on expectations the company's three-year growth strategy will drive stronger earnings. The firm views First Solar as the best-positioned company in the solar industry

 

NKE Nike guidance appears conservative, says Stifel

Stifel believes that Nike's Q1 gross margin guidance is likely conservative after the company reported better than expected Q4 results. The firm thinks the company's China business could rebound sooner than it indicated, and Stifel keeps a Buy rating on the stock

 

HPQ Hewlett-Packard valuation still attractive, says Bernstein

Bernstein expects HP to return material cash to shareholders in FY14 and it keeps a $29 price target and Outperform rating on the stock

 

BBBY Bed Bath & Beyond upgraded at BofA/Merrill

As previously reported, BofA/Merrill upgraded Bed Bath & Beyond to Buy from Neutral. The firm upgraded shares based on relative valuation, improving earnings visibility, and stabilizing gross margins. Price target is $82

FFIV F5 Networks upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James

 

Will be keeping it small today as I am a little worried about a pull back today, and I am normally a call buyer.

 

Here are the strikes I am watching for the open:

 

 

Stock Ticker	Call/Put	Strike	Expiration	Closing Price	Entry Price
NKE	CALL	$65.00	July wk2	0.78	0.15
GDX	PUT	$22.00	Weekly	0.12	0.05

 

 

Lets have a great day and see you Sunday!

 

- JB

With Gold and Silver stealing the headlines over the past two weeks, its very easy to be caught up into what the so-called experts are saying. I remember a few months ago when the updated hedge fund holdings came out, and their were quite a few that added positions to Miners. With the rise of $DUST and the fall of $GDX, you can see how those bets paid off.

Now you start reading the headlines tonight, after gold broke the psychological $1200, and see these so-called experts are now saying "Gold Bears Beware". These were the same experts touting gold over the past 8-12 months as it was falling nearly 31%.

So my question is, whats to stop gold from falling to $1000-1050 in the next week or two? Barring an unforeseen 'Black Swan' event, I see no reason why Gold does not touch $1050, Silver touch $15, and individual stocks like $GDX goes sub $20, while $DUST goes over $200 with gusto.

Call me crazy? Maybe... but thats how we make money on options. I will have an updated analysis on Gold and Silver on the week ahead Webinar on Sunday: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/live-event-classes-jtv/

Remember folks, fear is a powerful emotion. And the fear of losing more money on an exponentially margined position can be great... i guess we shall see!

- JB

 

Bulls and Bears battled the $160 mark on the SPY before finally breaking higher near the end of the day to mark day 2 of this bounce from multi-month lows. With futures higher once again today , this relief rally looks to continue with Jobless claims and spending numbers out this morning a tad better then expectations. If folks remember the previous trashing of the markets on Fed comments, they will also remember the subsequent rally and push over previous highs that happened following the pullback. Not saying this is what happens here, but sure setting up that way... as long as this china liquidity story resolves.

This week was the first multi-text idea week we have had here at OM. UPB alerted his GOOG 890 calls yesterday to go with the WTW 47.50 calls which have already doubled:

 

Text Trade Idea on GOOG by UPB : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/showthread.php/450-GOOG-890-call-65-x-70-for-upside-into-Friday

 

Here he explains the trade:

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/new-text-alert-trade-explained/

 

They are weeklies so risky, but could prove nice if GOOG finally breaks out.

Here is a great chart UPB posted yesterday in regards to the V-pattern he wanted to see on the markets:

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/v-bottom-charts-thats-what-i-like-to-see/

 

Should be a fun day today and hope we close above the 50dma on the SPY. Have a feeling in a few weeks we will be looking back and saying this past week was an amazing buying oppty. We shall see.

 

Here are the analyst changes today:

 

 

CSCO Cisco has R&D momentum back, says Stifel

After attending Cisco's Analyst Day, Stifel believes that some of the company's new products will enable it to maintain its market-leading share, while other announcements establish Cisco as the leader in the emerging market of SDNs. The firm believes the company has positive momentum and keeps a Buy rating on the stock

 

 

BBBY Bed Bath & Beyond results encouraging, says Bernstein

After Bed Bath & Beyond reported in-line Q1 results, Bernstein notes that the company's gross margin and comp trends improved. The firm thinks the company can beat expectations in 2H13 and it keeps an Outperform rating on the stock

 

BBBY Bed Bath & Beyond price target raised to $78 from $74 at Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank said that while Bed Bath & Beyond's Q1 results were mixed, the company's comps topped consensus and gross margins were better than expected. The firm upped its price target for shares to $78 and keeps a Buy rating on the stock.

 

AAPL Apple estimates lowered below consensus at Susquehanna

Susquehanna lowered Apple estimates below consensus to reflect checks that indicate continued mix challenges. The analyst does not believe Street estimates reflect the appropriate levels of low-end devices and that estimates will likely come down after the July earnings call. Additionally, checks indicate the new iPhone launch will be in early-September vs. previous expectations of a July launch, adding additional risk to September quarter consensus estimates. The firm maintains its Neutral rating and lowers its price target to $440 from $480

 

FB Facebook valuation compelling, says Cantor

Cantor expects Facebook to benefit from strong mobile ad sales and growing overall user engagement in Q2, along with lucrative video ads later this summer. The firm keeps a $35 price target and reiterates a Buy rating on the shares

 

 

Not many analyst changes today...

 

I have already entered 2 of the 3 stocks I really liked for this week with WTW and FLY calls. Last but not least is another of my favorites BPT. Will look for an entry on the 100 July calls. Will also look to add to some GOOG calls here(already have 905s).  Lets see if the market is less volatile today in terms of some of the swings we have seen in the past 3 sessions:

 

 

Stock Ticker	Call/Put	Strike	Expiration	Closing Price	Entry Price
BPT	CALL	$100.00	JULY	0.40	0.35
GOOG	CALL	$900.00	Weekly	0.20	0.25

 

 

Lets have a great day!

 

- JB