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A Few Charts Heading Into The Long Holiday Weekend

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First and foremost - Have a safe and happy long weekend.

I would like to share a few charts before I start the long weekend.

Sunday night I will post my 15 Minute market outlook.

The last two weeks have been rocky with the bids light and the selling strong at times.  I think a lot of this pull back stems from a lack of buyers.  Traders are waiting for the right time to get back in, or add more to their positions.  I have a few charts that I think are right at these positions.  Areas that have provided strong support/resistance in the past and will offer a great buying/selling opportunity heading into September.

$GOOG

very simply is has hit the $845 support line I've been highlighting for several months now.  After that we have the long term trendline and if that breaks $GOOG will be below $800 in a flash.  I think that isn't likely.  I see $GOOG heading back over $900 in the short term and the $845 level offers as good a spot as we've seen in many months to go long $GOOG.

 

goog1

 

 

$TSLA remains on the look out for the $200 figure.  Its coming and it will be here is a rapid fashion.  The bears are shocked to see it at $165, imagine their shock at $200 and then $250?  Wow.  We saw what can happen when a stock like $TSLA stands still.  Option traders who were buying calls or puts this week got creamed.  The late day spike higher tells me the powers that be where holding this electric pony back.  I'm looking for a breakout of this consolidation to make new highs next week.

 

tsla1

 

 

$TLT, it was a wild ride this week, but at some point the brakes are going to get hit.  $TLT is going under $100.  In my opinion its not an if, a why, a how, but more of a when.  It will happen.  $TLT closed right at my support/resistance levels at $106, go figure.  The bond Guru himself is moving into alternative investments. What does that tell you?  BONDS are DONE, at least at current prices.  The central bank owns over 30% of outstanding treasuries.  Its a flashing sell signal.  We saw it this week though, there will be bounces along the way.  $TLT will rally, bonds will be bid and then the floor gets pulled out from under them.

 

tlt

August 30th, 2013 Watch List

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Abhacken

 

Make that two green days in a row, although it does not seem that way. The market started in the red yesterday, then ramped all the way to $165+ on the SPY, only to fade back near 164, and finally close at 164.17. Futures are higher this morning so we shall see what this last day before the holiday weekend brings. The VIX continues to hover near the upper bollinger band and the SPY is still under the 50dma. Both will need to move quickly in order to end this pullback and get us back into all-time highs.

 

Some big movers yesterday to include the text trade idea from Wednesday Zillow. You can read my thoughts on the stock here : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/is-zillowz-the-monster-stock-of-2103/ and I do appreciate feedback for those that have it. Seems crazy to buy calls on a stock up so big this year, but folks thought TSLA at 90 was too much this year and look where that got them. Just want to see the $100 break and ill be happy.

 

Earnings from CRM last night beat expectations like they usually do, and all the analysts are cheering the stock.. nothing new here. Not sure ill play it but could be a nice one if your able to get some lotto calls at the open for a move to 49 or so. Gold sold off over night under 1400 and is trying to regain some of the losses. It pains me to watch but I will stay on the sidelines until it feels right, my gut just doesn’t like this whipsaw action.

 

Here are the analyst changes of note for today:

 

 

 

Splunk upgraded at FBR Capital
As previously reported, FBR Capital upgraded Splunk to Outperform from Market Perform. The analyst has increased confidence in Splunks product cycle and secular trends following last night's solid report and guidance. Price target raised to $61 from $48

 

Facebook price target raised to $50 from $38 at Stifel
Stifel believes that Facebook's revenue growth is beating expectations in Q3 while its margins remain high. The firm thinks the company is continuing to gain ad share and it keeps a Buy rating on the stock

 

Microsoft problems won't be overcome by CEO change alone, says Argus
After Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer announced that he would step down within one year, Argus thinks the company suffers from "systemic weakness." The firm believes that it will be difficult for the new CEO to make the company more nimble and forward-looking. It keeps a Hold rating on the shares

 

Intel upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus
Argus upgraded Intel to reflect new smartphone and tablet products that have advantage in terms of size and performance and are more competitive with ARM-based chips. Price target is $28

 

Salesforce.com price target raised to $60 from $52.50 at Credit Suisse
Shares are Outperform rated

 

 

Joy Global orders have likely bottomed, says William Blair
After Joy reported stronger than expected Q3 results but provided FY14 guidance that the firm views as weak, William Blair sharply lowered its FY14 EPS estimate. However, the firm thinks the chances of another negative catalyst surfacing have diminished. It keeps a $60 price target and Outperform rating on the shares

 

 

 

With the up and down action of the past 2 days, I will be a little more wary. With Yelp and Z continuing to be hot stocks, I think OPEN is the next one, and will look for a position today. Will also try for some lotto calls on TSLA today.

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
OPEN CALL $85.00 Sept 0.50 0.40
TSLA CALL $170.00 Weekly 0.68 0.20

 

 

The Week Ahead Webinar will be Monday night, sign-up here : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/live-event-classes-jtv/

 

Also, I will be doing a Webinar on Tuesday for the Ditto Trade on Tuesday at 12 noon. I do not expect to do any ditto trades until Wednesday. Signup for the webinar here : Please register for Ditto Trade Q and A with JB on Sep 3, 2013 12:00 PM EDT at:

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/5925590671725763328

 

Lets have a great end to the week and have a great holiday weekend folks!

 

- JB

August 29th, 2013 Watch List

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Abhacken

I want to thank everyone for their kinds words, support, and congratulations over the past few weeks on my big day. I truly appreciate it as we all have built some bonds with each other over the past months and years. With that being said, I know some continue to ask about having some kind of conference, and I will make a commitment to get something ironed out before the years out. At least the details of it.

 

Now onto the important stuff...The market continues to struggle to find footing as Syria tensions and emerging market worries have folks taking profits or sitting on the sidelines. I think the emerging market story is even more eye opening then any possible escalation in Syria as the Rupee, Lira, and Ruble have all been punished recently as fears over higher rates in the U.S. will hurt those economies via exports...ect. The Indian government has been the worst, going back and forth on policy to try and strengthen the currency, only to see it fall to historic lows. As it has been for sometime, I think these pullbacks will be bought eventually, and concerns over these emerging markets only means folks will continue to look for a better place to put their money to work..ie. U.S. equities.

 

Anyone following the watchlist and blog know I am a Gold bear. After bottoming out at $1180, the precious metal has found some bidders and vaulted over $1400. I actually was hoping for a bounce to $1380, so happy i was away for the bigger move over $1420. I am waiting for an entry for some puts on GLD and calls on DUST and will continue to watch for an entry. I still think Gold is set to test 1100 or less in the coming months and think DUST can head to new highs as well. The story hasn’t changed too much besides inflation nearing the 2% target, so my bear case is intact.

 

I bought some Z 110 calls yesterday and sent the trade out via text, like it for a break above $100 in the coming days based on lower mortgage rates and the fact that everyone keeps saying its overvalued, especially after the secondary. I will hold for the break above 100 but selling some for a double maybe a good idea when it happens.

 

Continue to love NFLX and BIDU here and will look to grab some NFLX calls today. NKE could also be a nice play off the lower bollie and may look for a position today. Being in Greece, Rome(airport), and Paris (airport) you can see the global impact Nike has. I would bet over 30-40% of the folks walking around in greece were wearing a nike sneaker. Heck, I saw more Lebron and Kobe jerseys then i see in New York.

 

More on that on the Week Ahead this weekend.

 

Here are some of the analyst changes of note for today:

 

 

UBS remains cautious on FactSet ahead of Q4 results
UBS remains cautious on Factset ahead of Q4 results based on valuation, increased competition, and decelerating buy-side growth. Shares are Neutral rated with a $99 price target

 

Cree weakness a buying opportunity, says JPMorgan
JPMorgan said recent weakness in Cree following the mixed Q4 report and guidance is a buying opportunity. The analyst believes margin concerns are overblown and that the company has been somewhat supply constrained and has several levers to maintain margins. Shares are Overweight rated with a $75 price target

 

Expedia competitive concerns provides a buying opportunity, says Benchmark Co.
Benchmark Co. said Expedia share weakness since the Q2 report provides a buying opportunity. Firm believes Expedia has been addressing the changing competitive landscape and that shaers are undervalued. Shares are Buy rated with a $66 price target

 

Williams-Sonoma reported solid results, says Wells Fargo
After Williams-Sonoma reported stronger than expected results, Wells Fargo thinks the company's guidance is conservative. The firm keeps a Market Perform rating on the stock

 

Nike one of best performing brands, says Wells Fargo
Based on channel checks, Wells Fargo thinks that Nike was one of the best performing brands in Q2. The firm believes that Nike has strong momentum in key emerging markets, and it identifies the company as one of its top picks. Wells keeps an Outperform rating on the stock

 

Cisco outlook positive, says Wells Fargo
After meeting with Cisco's COO, Wells Fargo believes that the company continues to execute well and see gradually improving trends in many key product categories and geographies. Cisco reports that the global economy is continuing to recover, according to Wells, which keeps an Outperform rating on the stock

 

Joy Global price target lowered to $57 from $69 at RW Baird
Baird lowered its price target on Joy Global following Q3 results. The firm cited lowered bookings guidance but remains positive citing its share buyback program, expanded cost reductions, and current valuation. Shares are Outperform rated

 

 

 

The SPY is below the 50dma for the second time since June, an area i usually mark as my line in the sand. The VIX closed just below the upper bollie band and will look for a reversal today and tomorrow. Looks like the USD is getting a bid as well and would like to see it close above 82. Time will tell. Here are the strikes I am looking at today:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
NKE CALL $63.50 Weekly 0.26 0.26
NFLX CALL $300.00 weekly 0.16 0.16

 

 

Both are weeklies that expire tomorrow so be wary. Will get into NFLX if it holds 285, and will try for the NKE calls after the open.

 

I went and approved all the Private Twitter requests for Gold members and above yesterday that were pending since I left. If you are a Gold member and above and want access to the private twitter feeds please email optionmillionaires@gmail.com with your OM username and Twitter Handle. I post my trades in the private twitter feed right after i post in the chatroom so its a matter of seconds for those unable to monitor the chatroom all day.

 

I also went and approved all Diamond member requests to follow on dittotrade.com .

 

Some nice posts by UPB yesterday and today:

 

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/upb-morning-market-video-tsla-spy-goog-amzn-tlt-uso-aapl-nflx/

 

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/as-long-as-these-pullbacks-have-a-name-stocks-head-higher/

 

http://stocktwits.com/message/15413233

 

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/uso-where-is-oil-going-from-here/

 

 

Lets have a great day folks!

 

- JB

August 28th Watchlist

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Stock futures are slightly higher, and off their lows they hit a few hours ago.  This pull back from all time highs continues with the latest leg down being blamed on the current Syrian crisis.  $USO continues to work as a trade on the conflict and potential war, I wrote about this on Monday:

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/uso-oil-spike-coming/

We have bonds pulling back and the recent run up for $TLT has met resistance at $106, which is a level I thought would be the highest area any bounce would go.

$EXPR reported earnings this morning and is up 8% last check.  The breakdown will have to wait it seems.  $TIF today has seen two downgrades, the stock should continue to weaken into weeks end and I think low $70's short term is not out of the question.

Morning headlines courtesy of zerohedge.com:

  • Merkel Blames SPD’s Schroeder for Letting Greece Into Euro (BBG)
  • U.S. Bank Legal Bills Exceed $100 Billion (BBG)
  • U.K. to Request U.N. Action to Protect Syrians From Chemical Weapons  (WSJ) - and Russia to veto any decision
  • U.N. inspectors in new Syria mission as West prepares to strike (Reuters)
  • Emerging-Market Rout Intensifies on Syria Jitters (WSJ)
  • Rebels Without a Leader Show Limit to U.S. Role in Syria War (BBG)
  • Anger at IRS Powers Tea-Party Comeback (WSJ)
  • China has much at risk but no reach in Middle East (Reuters)
  • 'London Whale' Penalties Put at $500 Million to $600 Million (WSJ)
  • U.S. lawmaker says 'compelling' evidence of Syrian chemical attack (Reuters)

 

After this sell-off we have a few stocks coming up against strong support and some breaking through it.

$GOOG should see strong support at $845, if it gets that low.  That will be a great point to buy for a move higher.

$CAT should find support at $82

$GS  the stock broke below a long term support line this week.

$AAPL after the almost 3% decline should see solid support at $480

$TSLA remains on track for a move over $200 this year

 

ANALYST TALK:

 

 
$TIF Tiffany downgraded to Underperform from Outperform at CLSA
CLSA downgraded Tiffany due to valuation. Note that Citigroup also downgraded shares this morning

$TIF Tiffany downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
Citigroup downgraded Tiffany based on valuation. Price target raised to $88 from $84.

$TOL $LEN $MDC $DHI Homebuilder price targets lowered at KeyBanc
KeyBanc reduced its price targets on several homebuilders after the industry's orders fell back to seasonal levels in Q2. The firm is now modeling a lower absorption pace for the sector. It reduced its price target on Toll Brothers (TOL) to $40 from $43, on Lennar (LEN) to $41 from $49, on M.D.C. Holdings (MDC) to $39 from $46, and on D.R. Horton (DHI) to $23 from $30. The firm reiterates Buy ratings on all the stocks named, however

$TIVO TiVo positive trends likely to continue, says BMO Capital
After TiVo reported higher than expected Q2 service and technology revenue, BMO Capital expects growth in the company's revenue from service providers to continue to be strong over the next several quarters. The firm thinks the stock's valuation is "extremely compelling," and it reiterates an Outperform rating

Trades I am looking at today:

$SPY $164.50 weekly calls $.35
$GDX $29.50 weekly calls $.40
$GOOG $865 weekly calls $1.00

August 27 Watchlist

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Futures are lower to start the trading day. Silver, Gold, Oil, Bonds are all seeing gains early gains.

"U.S. stock-index futures slid, signaling the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will drop for a second day, as investors awaited data that may show consumer confidence fell and tension grew over possible military action in Syria.
Cisco Systems Inc. and Microsoft Corp. declined at least 1 percent in early trading, pacing losses in the biggest U.S. companies. J.C. Penney Co. (JCP) retreated 2.4 percent after Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital Management LP sold its stake in the retailer for $504 million. Tiffany (TIF) & Co. rose 2 percent as second-quarter profit exceeded estimates.
Futures on the S&P 500 (SPX) expiring in September slid 0.6 percent to 1,644.5 at 7:48 a.m. in New York. The benchmark gauge fell 0.4 percent yesterday after Secretary of State John Kerry said the U.S. will hold Syria’s government accountable for using chemical weapons. Contracts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 79 points, or 0.5 percent, to 14,852 today.
The Syrian crisis “brings to light the Middle East situation and Egypt,” Nick Xanders, an equity strategist at BTIG Ltd. in London, said by phone. “U.S. data seems to be mixed and you look at the Fed minutes and they’re cautiously optimistic but we’re not going to see the high growth we saw in the past.”

Is today's dip a buying opportunity for stocks? I think it remains that was for the gold miners, $USO, and $POT $MOS $MON. I think when the dust settles on this Syria conflict that it will be a great time to buy the dip. But right now its tough to tell when that will be. Since the lows in 2009 the market has been incredibly resilient and each one of these "news" events was a great buying opportunity I don't think this time will be any different.

$TIF reported earnings this morning, the stock is up 2% and the $75 puts I bought yesterday are going to open at a severe discount. Earnings trades are very difficult to time, when they work like $ANF and $ARO last week, they can be very profitable, when they don't you can lose 75% or more on your trade.

We have earnings coming up this week from more retailers. Williams Sonoma, $GUESS, EXPRESS. I still like $EXPR for a pull back after earnings and I will let you know if I enter a trade.

Analyst:

$CRM Salesforce.com has some big deals coming up, says Piper Jaffray
After conducting checks with industry players, Piper Jaffray reports that Salesforce.com has some "big... .service cloud deals...on the horizon." Feedback on the company's marketing cloud operations are mixed, the firm stated, but it reiterates a $52 price target and Overweight rating on the shares

$MON Monsanto upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS
UBS upgraded Monsanto based on the year-to-date sell-off in shares and expectations for stabilizing corn prices. Price target remains $110

$EMC EMC attractive at current levels, says Brean Capital
Brean Capital believes EMC is attractive at current levels citing further growth in license booking which will ease concerns about saturation in the core server virtualization business. Shares are Buy rated with a $31 price target

Trade I am looking at today:

$EXPR $17.5 sep puts $.45
$AAPL $510 weekly calls $1.00
$USO $37 weekly calls $.95