Today we go for a 3-day winning streak on the SPY  that hopefully has us over the 50dma of 166.34 going into tomorrows August employment numbers. Folks are expecting little change with 174k jobs added the unemployment rate standing pat at 7.4%. Number like those should set us up for a nice 4-day rally going into the weekend where some type of action against Syria would probably take place.

 

 

Z and SHLD continued their march higher again yesterday, although both fell from their highs. Still love them both despite the Morgan Stanley downgrade on Z this morning and the fact that SHLD has zero news catalysts at the moment.

 

Was able to flip some GOOG calls yesterday and still think GOOG has a shot over 880. CMG bet has proven to be frustrating so far, but it only takes one 2-3% day to make some money... maybe its today.

 

SINA looks like a nice play today with some more positive press : http://thenextweb.com/asia/2013/09/05/video-the-next-battleground-for-chinas-internet-giants/

 

Also like Z for a bounce as the stock finally has weekly options starting today, along with  another fan favorite DUST.

 

Here are some of the analyst changes of note:

 

 

 

RIG Transocean upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse

Credit Suisse upgraded Transocean based on valuation, cost cutting plans, expectations for improving margins, and potential dividend increases and or buybacks. Price target remains $60

 

 

OPEN OpenTable downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley downgraded OpenTable based on valuation and high Street expectations for seated diner penetration. Price target is $60

 

 

HUM Humana price target raised to $110 from $100 at JPMorgan

JPMorgan raised its price target for Humana to $110 and views the risk/reward as compelling at current levels. The firm expects Medicare Advantage reimbursement to improve post 2015 and keeps an Overweight rating on the stock

 

 

QCOM Qualcomm should be sold into rallies, says JPMorgan

JPMorgan expects Qualcomm (QCOM) shares to rally on hope for new gadget announcements, particularly from Apple (AAPL), and recommends investors sell into the news. The firm expects smartphone adoption as well as average selling prices to decline starting in 2014 and reiterates a Neutral rating on Qualcomm with a $60 price target

 

 

GMCRGreen Mountain price target raised to $95 from $89 at Canaccord

Canaccord said Campbell's Soup K-Cup deal expands Green Mountain's opportunity beyond beverages and increases household placement value. Additionally, the analyst expects the September 10 analyst day to discuss other broader category opportunities and be a positive catalyst for shares. The firm rates Green Mountain a Buy

 

 

BBRY BlackBerry survey indicates soft BB7 and BB10 sales, says Canaccord

Canaccord's global survey indicates very weak Z10, Q10, and Q5 sales along with declining B7 legacy sales. The firm said BlackBerry smartphone channel inventory appears very high and lowered 2014 and 2015 sell-in estimates. Shares remain Sell rated with an $8 price target.

 

 

FFIV F5 Networks product sales appear poised to accelerate, says Wells Fargo

After attending F5's technology open house, Wells Fargo thinks the company's product sales growth will increase significantly during the next several quarters. The firm believes that the increased sales growth may drive the stock higher and it keeps an Outperform rating on the stock

 

 

AAPL Apple mid-range phone could add $50+ to stock, says RBC Capital

RBC Capital expects Apple to announce a high range and mid-range iPhone on September 10, as well as a deal with China Mobile (CHL). The firm keeps a $525 price target and Outperform rating on Apple

 

 

 

 

Here are some of the strikes I am looking at for this morning:

 

 

Stock Ticker	Call/Put	Strike	Expiration	Closing Price	Entry Price
SINA	CALL	$82.50	Weekly	0.21	0.21
SINA	CALL	$90.00	Sept	0.33	0.33
Z	CALL	$105.00	Weekly	NA	0.30
Z	CALL	$107.00	Weekly	NA	0.20

 

 

 

NFLX is also showing some strength and may try for some 305 calls if it looks poised to break above 300. FFIV also looks like it wants 87.50+ and will watch that one today as well.

 

Posted my SPY chart below and looks like indicators are starting to turn, which is good for bulls IMHO -

 

 

Lets have a great day!

 

-JB

 

I guess you could call yesterday a Gap and Trap, despite the market closing in the green. With support coming, the odds for some type of action in Syria increased, causing folks to take profits. We are still perilously below the 50DMA, and I still hold out hope for a close above by Friday when the August job numbers are reported.

 

Opened a few positions yesterday to include $CMG 425 Calls, $SHLD Sept 50 and 52.50 calls and Oct 55 calls, AMZN 300 calls, and GOOG 890 calls. Still love Zillow and SAM here and will continue to look for positions in both as the week progresses.

 

LNKD finally announced another offering. This was a looming concern since it broke into the 100s, as any smart growing company should take advantage to raise capital. Figure the dip gets bought at some point on LNKD and it sees 250+ in the coming days.

 

I should have a write up on the blog for SHLD at some point today or before the open tomorrow. Its a garbage stock but there is not room for JCP and SHLD in the current marketplace. With iconic brands Kenmore and Craftsman, as well owning quite a bit of their property, I think SHLD offers a nice risk v reward scenario at these levels. More to come later.

 

Here are some of the analyst changes for today:

 

 

EBAY eBay added to Best Ideas List at Wedbush

Wedbush added eBay to the Best Ideas List based on expectations PayPal will continue to take digital wallet market share and Marketplace will re-accelerate into Q4. Shares are Outperform rated with a $64 price target

 

C Citigroup emerging market businesses will keep growing, says Bernstein

Bernstein believes that Citi's emerging market businesses will continue to grow, even though some emerging economies are slowing. The firm thinks that the bank's exposure to a large number of countries, clients, and types of businesses provide it with a natural hedge. Bernstein keeps an Outperform rating on the stock

 

AAPL Cantor starts Apple with Buy, says shares in midst of recovery

Cantor Fitzgerald initiated shares of Apple this morning with a Buy rating and $777 price target, saying the stock is in the midst of a recovery. Cantor believes Apple is on the verge of an extended product cycle over the next 12-18 months and finds the valuation very attractive at current levels. Shares of Apple closed yesterday at $488.58

 

VZ Verizon upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at RW Baird

Baird upgraded Verizon based on improved earnings growth and long-term positioning following the acquisition of Vodafone's 45% stake in Verizon Wireless. Price target raised to $53 from $52

 

exaggerating

 

FB Facebook price target raised to $50 from $36 at RW Baird

Baird raised its price target on Facebook following mid-quarter checks. The firm cited stabilized ad pricing, increasing ad coverage, and an increase in application installs and video ads. Shares are Outperform rated

 

DFS Discover shares should be bought at current levels, says Stifel

Stifel expects Discover's stock to advance, as the firm thinks that investors will become more aware of the company's network and industry-leading lending fundamentals. The firm expects the company to beat consensus estimates going forward

 

AAPL Apple could add $6.55 to EPS through operator penetration, says Wells Fargo

Wells Fargo reports that Apple is becoming less rigid with operators, and the firm thinks that new operator deals could add $6.55 to the company's FY14 EPS. Wells raised its price target on the stock to $525-$575 from $485-$525 and keeps an Outperform rating on Apple

 

 

 

 

AAPL is looking great pre-market and is one to watch with 2 upgrades out and the IPHONE release coming. May be one to play into the Sept 10th announcement.

 

Here are the two strikes I am looking at for the open:

 

 

 

Stock Ticker	Call/Put	Strike	Expiration	Closing Price	Entry Price
BIDU	CALL	$140.00	Weekly	0.51	0.45
SSYS	CALL	$130.00	Sept	0.35	0.30

 

 

 

Lets have a great day!

 

- JB

With the worst month since May 2012 behind us, we can look forward to more market moving events in the coming weeks to include the FOMC meeting Sep 17-18th as well as other possible catalysts i.e. Syria. With possible intervention delayed, the market can breathe a short sigh of relief in the form of a few nice green days to take the SPY above the 50 dma(166.08) . Hard to say if that will be the case or if we will resume the trend fo last week as folks sold any gap up.

 

Some news over the weekend including Verizon buying the rest of it’s wireless stake from Vodaphone. A move that has been talked about for sometime.

Now the bonehead move of the weekend is MSFT buying NOK wireless business. Nokia is already using the crappy MSFT OS on their phones, so what does MSFT gain from this purchase? Expenses and a dying brand. I guess time will tell but there are plenty of other great acquisition targets out there for 7.1 billion.

 

Tons of gappers this morning led by Tesla crossing all-time highs over $174. Should be a very interesting day.

 

Here are some of the analyst changes of note:

 

 

MON Monsanto to benefit from COGS tailwind, says Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley said poor yields and increased corn prices have resulted in increased corn COGS by approximately 70c of EPS since 2008. The firm expects this trend to reverse in 2014, offsetting concerns of lower acreage and pricing power. Shares are Outperform rated with a $125 price target

 

 

FINL Finish Line upgraded at Janney Capital

As previously reported, Janney Capital upgraded Finish Line to Buy from Neutral. The firm's upgrade is based on an improving product line and potential 2H 2013 comp acceleration, positive early reads on the Macy's partnership, a slow down in digital, omni-channel investments which supports potential cash use for increasing buybacks or dividends, and valuation. Price target raised to $26 from $24

 

 

AAPL Apple downgraded to Sell from Hold at ABG Sundal

Price target remains $400

 

ZUMZ Zumiez could provide cautious Q3 guidance, says RW Baird

Baird expects Zumiez to provide cautious initial Q3 guidance when its reports quarterly results on Thursday. The firm believes there is little upside surprise for Q2 as they suspect sales trends in August showed a continuation of July's trends and the broader uncertainty in the retail environment. Shares are Outperform rated with a $37 price target

 

WDC Western Digital, Seagate weakness a buying opportunity, says Brean Capital

Brean Capital believes the recent weakness in both Western Digital (WDC) and Seagate Technology (STX) is a buying opportunity. The firm cited stable free cash flow and gross margins and current valuation. Brean Capital favors Western Digital over Seagate due to its discounted valuation. Both Seagate and Western Digital are Buy rated

 

ISRG William Blair says a buyer of Intuitive Surgical shares

William Blair said it is a buyer of Intuitive Surgical shares after meeting with the company's CEO Gary Guthart and conducting an analysis of system placement and utilization trends. The firm sees upside to expectations and keeps an Outperform rating on the stock

 

 

I am officially starting the Ditto Trade program today. Here is the webinar from last night:  https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/showthread.php/542-Ditto-Trade-Q-and-A-9-2

 

Also, here is the Week Ahead Webinar from last night for those that missed it: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/showthread.php/541-The-Week-Ahead-With-UPB-and-JB-9-2

 

Will be watching two strikes for today as well as having eyes on SAM, Z, BIDU, SHLD, SODA, SSYS, and a few others:

 

 

 

Stock Ticker	Call/Put	Strike	Expiration	Closing Price	Entry Price
OPEN	CALL	$85.00	Sept	0.40	0.35
CMG	CALL	$425.00	Weekly	0.35	0.30

 

 

 

Again folks, I if make a purchase I will post in the chatroom first then private twitter.

 

Lets have a great start to the holiday shortened week!

 

- JB

 

Make that two green days in a row, although it does not seem that way. The market started in the red yesterday, then ramped all the way to $165+ on the SPY, only to fade back near 164, and finally close at 164.17. Futures are higher this morning so we shall see what this last day before the holiday weekend brings. The VIX continues to hover near the upper bollinger band and the SPY is still under the 50dma. Both will need to move quickly in order to end this pullback and get us back into all-time highs.

 

Some big movers yesterday to include the text trade idea from Wednesday Zillow. You can read my thoughts on the stock here : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/is-zillowz-the-monster-stock-of-2103/ and I do appreciate feedback for those that have it. Seems crazy to buy calls on a stock up so big this year, but folks thought TSLA at 90 was too much this year and look where that got them. Just want to see the $100 break and ill be happy.

 

Earnings from CRM last night beat expectations like they usually do, and all the analysts are cheering the stock.. nothing new here. Not sure ill play it but could be a nice one if your able to get some lotto calls at the open for a move to 49 or so. Gold sold off over night under 1400 and is trying to regain some of the losses. It pains me to watch but I will stay on the sidelines until it feels right, my gut just doesn’t like this whipsaw action.

 

Here are the analyst changes of note for today:

 

 

 

Splunk upgraded at FBR Capital

As previously reported, FBR Capital upgraded Splunk to Outperform from Market Perform. The analyst has increased confidence in Splunks product cycle and secular trends following last night's solid report and guidance. Price target raised to $61 from $48

 

Facebook price target raised to $50 from $38 at Stifel

Stifel believes that Facebook's revenue growth is beating expectations in Q3 while its margins remain high. The firm thinks the company is continuing to gain ad share and it keeps a Buy rating on the stock

 

Microsoft problems won't be overcome by CEO change alone, says Argus

After Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer announced that he would step down within one year, Argus thinks the company suffers from "systemic weakness." The firm believes that it will be difficult for the new CEO to make the company more nimble and forward-looking. It keeps a Hold rating on the shares

 

Intel upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus

Argus upgraded Intel to reflect new smartphone and tablet products that have advantage in terms of size and performance and are more competitive with ARM-based chips. Price target is $28

 

Salesforce.com price target raised to $60 from $52.50 at Credit Suisse

Shares are Outperform rated

 

 

Joy Global orders have likely bottomed, says William Blair

After Joy reported stronger than expected Q3 results but provided FY14 guidance that the firm views as weak, William Blair sharply lowered its FY14 EPS estimate. However, the firm thinks the chances of another negative catalyst surfacing have diminished. It keeps a $60 price target and Outperform rating on the shares

 

 

 

With the up and down action of the past 2 days, I will be a little more wary. With Yelp and Z continuing to be hot stocks, I think OPEN is the next one, and will look for a position today. Will also try for some lotto calls on TSLA today.

 

 

Stock Ticker	Call/Put	Strike	Expiration	Closing Price	Entry Price
OPEN	CALL	$85.00	Sept	0.50	0.40
TSLA	CALL	$170.00	Weekly	0.68	0.20

 

 

The Week Ahead Webinar will be Monday night, sign-up here : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/live-event-classes-jtv/

 

Also, I will be doing a Webinar on Tuesday for the Ditto Trade on Tuesday at 12 noon. I do not expect to do any ditto trades until Wednesday. Signup for the webinar here : Please register for Ditto Trade Q and A with JB on Sep 3, 2013 12:00 PM EDT at:

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/5925590671725763328

 

Lets have a great end to the week and have a great holiday weekend folks!

 

- JB