It’s a big week, with a much-anticipated announcement on QE infinity coming this Wednesday. I continue to think Big Ben (Bernanke) will want to go out on top, and any QE taper news won't come until the first quarter of 2014. Also, I still think we finish out 2013 above $180 on the SPY.
Futures opened somewhat flat overnight despite weak China PMI numbers. At about 10PM, futures fell in swift fashion with no news catalyst to speak of. You can see what happened here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-15/sp-futures-nikkei-slide-large-block-trade.
Whether it was a fat finger or just someone selling on the weak Asia session, nobody knows. Strong PMI numbers from Germany and other eurozone countries seem to have counteracted the bad China data and, as a consequence, futures have completely reversed to the upside.
If today's rally fades, I continue to look at 177.96 and 176.34 as support areas on the SPY. With the VIX near the upper Bollie band, it's quite possible we reverse nicely this week and break back over 179.91. Of course, I'm still somewhat bullish and think the second scenario will occur.
Also, here's the Week Ahead webinar from last night: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/showthread.php/739-The-Week-Ahead-with-UPB-and-JB-12-15-(half)
Unfortunately, I continue to have an issue with Gotowebinar ever since I upgraded to Mavericks, and the first half is missing. I should have that problem fixed for next week.
SIamshogun has created a nice excel document to post trades and to make it easier to keep track of the current positions, etc. I hope to have this set up sometime this week. Stay tuned!
Here are some of the analyst changes of note for today:
Z Zillow shares should be bought, says Pacific Crest |
Pacific Crest's checks indicate that the company's market share with consumers is jumping, and the firm believes that the company's brand awareness is ahead of the competition. The firm keeps a $100 price target and Outperform rating on the stock |
SBUX Starbucks downgraded at Stephens |
As previously reported, Stephens downgraded Starbucks to Equal Weight from Overweight. The firm lowered shares due to valuation, incremental negative consumer data, and a likely slowdown in comps. Price target lowered to $85 from $95 |
MLNX Mellanox well-positioned for growth in 2014, says Stifel |
After meeting with Mellanox's management, Stifel expects the company to benefit from a rebound in the HPC market and traction in other segments. The firm keeps a $55 price target and Buy rating on the stock |
DRI Darden unlikely to significantly lower EPS outlook, says Wells Fargo |
Based on Darden's previous history of issuing preannouncements when its earnings are significantly below expectations, Wells Fargo believes the absence of a preannouncement by the company this month suggests that its FY14 EPS guidance is largely intact. The firm expects the company to have continued same-store sales headwinds but keeps an Outperform rating on the stock |
MNST Monster Beverage upgraded at RBC Capital |
As noted earlier, RBC Capital upgraded Monster Beverage to Top Pick from Outperform. The firm has increased confidence in its above-consensus estimates for the company, partly due to better than expected volume growth as reflected by the Nielsen c-store data. Target $77 |
FB Facebook recently increased ad load, says Cantor |
Cantor believes that Facebook recently increased the ad load on its News Feed, and the firm thinks the move bodes well for the company's Q4 results. The firm continues to identify the company as a top pick and keeps a Buy rating on the stock |
Stocks I love: SCTY and SSYS, and I'll look for positions just as I have for the past few weeks. MLNX had another buy reiteration and with the chart looking good, I think she heads towards $40 again this week. I'll try for some calls there as well.
Stock Ticker | Call/Put | Strike | Expiration | Closing Price | Entry Price |
SSYS | CALL | $130.00 | Weekly | 0.45 | 0.40 |
MLNX | CALL | $39.00 | Dec(weekly) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
SCTY | CALL | $55.50 | Dec (weekly) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
Let's have a great start to the week!
- JB