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December 16th, 2013 Watchlist

It’s a big week, with a much-anticipated announcement on QE infinity coming this Wednesday. I continue to think Big Ben (Bernanke) will want to go out on top, and any QE taper news won't come until the first quarter of 2014. Also, I still think we finish out 2013 above $180 on the SPY.

Futures opened somewhat flat overnight despite weak China PMI numbers. At about 10PM, futures fell in swift fashion with no news catalyst to speak of. You can see what happened here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-15/sp-futures-nikkei-slide-large-block-trade.

Whether it was a fat finger or just someone selling on the weak Asia session, nobody knows. Strong PMI numbers from Germany and other eurozone countries seem to have counteracted the bad China data and, as a consequence, futures have completely reversed to the upside.

If today's rally fades, I continue to look at 177.96 and 176.34 as support areas on the SPY. With the VIX near the upper Bollie band, it's quite possible we reverse nicely this week and break back over 179.91. Of course, I'm still somewhat bullish and think the second scenario will occur.

Also, here's the Week Ahead webinar from last night: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/showthread.php/739-The-Week-Ahead-with-UPB-and-JB-12-15-(half)

Unfortunately, I continue to have an issue with Gotowebinar ever since I upgraded to Mavericks, and the first half is missing. I should have that problem fixed for next week.

SIamshogun has created a nice excel document to post trades and to make it easier to keep track of the current positions, etc. I hope to have this set up sometime this week. Stay tuned!

Here are some of the analyst changes of note for today:

Z Zillow shares should be bought, says Pacific Crest
Pacific Crest's checks indicate that the company's market share with consumers is jumping, and the firm believes that the company's brand awareness is ahead of the competition. The firm keeps a $100 price target and Outperform rating on the stock
SBUX Starbucks downgraded at Stephens
As previously reported, Stephens downgraded Starbucks to Equal Weight from Overweight. The firm lowered shares due to valuation, incremental negative consumer data, and a likely slowdown in comps. Price target lowered to $85 from $95
MLNX Mellanox well-positioned for growth in 2014, says Stifel
After meeting with Mellanox's management, Stifel expects the company to benefit from a rebound in the HPC market and traction in other segments. The firm keeps a $55 price target and Buy rating on the stock
DRI Darden unlikely to significantly lower EPS outlook, says Wells Fargo
Based on Darden's previous history of issuing preannouncements when its earnings are significantly below expectations, Wells Fargo believes the absence of a preannouncement by the company this month suggests that its FY14 EPS guidance is largely intact. The firm expects the company to have continued same-store sales headwinds but keeps an Outperform rating on the stock
MNST Monster Beverage upgraded at RBC Capital
As noted earlier, RBC Capital upgraded Monster Beverage to Top Pick from Outperform. The firm has increased confidence in its above-consensus estimates for the company, partly due to better than expected volume growth as reflected by the Nielsen c-store data. Target $77
FB Facebook recently increased ad load, says Cantor
Cantor believes that Facebook recently increased the ad load on its News Feed, and the firm thinks the move bodes well for the company's Q4 results. The firm continues to identify the company as a top pick and keeps a Buy rating on the stock

Stocks I love: SCTY and SSYS, and I'll look for positions just as I have for the past few weeks. MLNX had another buy reiteration and with the chart looking good, I think she heads towards $40 again this week. I'll try for some calls there as well.

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
SSYS CALL $130.00 Weekly 0.45 0.40
MLNX CALL $39.00 Dec(weekly) 0.30 0.25
SCTY CALL $55.50 Dec (weekly) 0.50 0.50

Let's have a great start to the week!

- JB

December 13th, 2013 Watch List

The SPY is down 1.55% so far this week. And unless we see a major rally this will be the second down week in a row. Is this the start of a streak or just a buying opportunity? We'll have more clarity come next week, with the FOMC meeting, release, and subsequent press conference that Wednesday.

TWTR continued its massive rally yesterday, closing over $55. If someone gave me a dollar for everyone that has said TWTR was overvalued in the $40s I could buy a few hundred shares. What do they say now? I haven’t played it, and I wanted to get some leaps if it dropped into the $35 range. I'll be waiting for for a possible entry.

I also love ICE here for a continued move to the upside and I also think $220+ is in the cards heading into the weekend. I hold DEC $230 calls and I'll be looking to add January calls today.

SINA and SCTY tried to break out yesterday, but that may be a little too late. SCTY looks great again pre-market, so I'll have to see how that plays out.

I've been talking about the Aussie for some time, and here are a few of my thoughts: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/aussie-bubble-bursting/

Quite a few analyst changes for today, and here are the ones that stood out:

TWTR Twitter price target raised to $60 from $33 at RBC Capital
RBC Capital believes that Twitter's advertising platform is improving, while marketers' spending on Twitter has risen. The firm thinks the company can significantly improve its website, and it reiterates an Outperform rating on the shares
SSYS Stratasys initiated with an Overweight at Stephens
Target $130
DTV DirecTV price target raised to $82 from $74 at Brean Capital
Brean Capital raised its price target on DirecTV following it investor meeting. The firm cited management's plans to grow both US and Latin America revenue while maintaining margins and lowering capital expenditures. Shares are Buy rated
ADBE Adobe price target raised to $58 from $54 at RW Baird
Baird raised its price target on Adobe following better than expected Q4 results. The firm cited increased long-term targets for subscriber growth, continued strong Cloud momentum, and the company's ability to exceed expectations during its business model transition. Shares are Neutral rated
RH Restoration Hardware weakness a buying opportunity, says RW Baird
Baird would use any weakness in Restoration Hardware as a buying opportunity following better than expected Q3 results. The firm believes the unexpected departure of its CEO will overshadow the company's strong results. Baird noted its strong revenue growth, improved profitability, and encouraging outlook. Shares are Outperform rated with a $88 price target
ICE IntercontinentalExchange can benefit from Liffe growth, says Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo believes that investors have underappreciated the growth potential of NYSE Euronext's European derivatives business, Liffe. The latter business could help enable IntercontinentalExchange, which has acquired NYSE Euronext, grow its EPS by double digit percentage levels well past 2015, according to Wells Fargo. The firm reiterates an Outperform rating on IntercontinentalExchange
AMZN Amazon.com upgraded at ISI Group
As previously reported, ISI Group upgraded Amazon.com to Strong Buy from Buy. The analyst believes Prime membership and positive Holiday survey results will drive faster revenue margin growth beyond Q4. Price target is $430
CSCO Cisco outlook has become more positive, says Oppenheimer
After attending Cisco's Investor Day, Oppenheimer thinks the company is making progress in implementing its transition to a more services oriented model. The firm views the shares as compelling but doesn't believe that investors will be impressed by the stock for another two or three quarters. The firm keeps an Outperform rating on the shares
FDX FedEx upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James
Raymond James upgraded FedEx due to its aggressive cost improvement plan that is on track and resulting earnings power. Price target raised to $190 from $124

Futures were up nicely this morning but have started to fall. The first area I'll be watching is the 50dma, which is at 176.13. I don't think we'll get there, but it's provided some decent support throughout the past year.

I'll be looking to add to ICE this morning as well as trying to play some lotto GOOG calls:

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
GOOG CALL $1,080.00 Weekly 0.70 0.50
ICE CALL $240.00 January 0.60 0.50

Let's have a great day, and see you Sunday for the week ahead!

- JB

December 12th, 2013 Watch List

The markets have rallied and climbed the supposed 'Wall of Worry' over the past few years -- whether that wall be the fiscal cliff, the sequestration cuts, the government shutdown, the showdown with Syria, the Fed's feared economic stimulus taper and so on.

The next headwind was due to strike us this coming January, as a budget and debt ceiling deal needed to be worked out in the Congress or the U.S. would face more uncertainty and, most likely, debt downgrades from the rating agencies. With a new 2-year bipartisan budget deal on the table, those potential headwinds may have disappeared and it's almost become a ‘sell the good news’ event.

Helicopter Ben (ed. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke) actually talked about the possible government shutdown and debt ceiling issues in his September 2013 press conference, when the Fed kept QE going despite expectations of a taper in said quantitative easing.

My point is, as crazy as it sounds: for this market to rally higher we NEED MORE HEADWINDS!

Gold had rallied to start the week, hitting $1260+. But it's been falling ever since, nearing the lows from last week. The U.S. dollar is a bit stronger this morning and is back over the 80 mark.

Weekly jobless claims came in higher then expected at 368,000 versus a forecast of 328,000. Futures have recouped their losses and turned green on the data.

LULU reported earnings and issued a weak outlook, putting shares down over 10%.

I still have high hopes for SINA and SCTY but time is running out and I'll need a big move from both today.

Here are some of the analyst changes for today:

CLF Cliffs Natural initiated with a Market Perform at Bernstein
Target $25
COST Costco fundamentals remain strong, says RW Baird
Baird notes Costco Q1 results fell short of expectations but sees key fundamental trends intact. The firm noted foreign exchange headwinds will constrain near-term earnings but strong traffic and member loyalty will position Costco as an attractive growth staple. Shares are Outperform rated with a $138 price target
HD Home Depot sector backdrop remains favorable, says RW Baird
Baird maintains its Outperform rating on Home Depot following yesterday's investors conference. The firm came away with reinforced belief the company is taking away market share and is doing so as sector demand is approaching cyclical lows. Baird believes guidance is conservative and sees an upward bias to Street estimates. Price target is $93
FDS FactSet initiated with a Neutral at Janney Capital
Target $115
AAPL Apple price target raised to $600 from at Canaccord
Canaccord raised Buy rated Apple estimates following recent survey results that indicate strong iPhone 5s sales, improved supply levels for all color SKUs, and the upcoming China Mobile launch
SPWR SunPower price target raised to $39 from $32 at Citigroup
Citigroup raised its price target for SunPower to $39 after meeting with management and reiterates a Buy rating on the stock. Citi says SunPower's strength in the Japan continues above its expectations
  IRBT iRobot upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan
JPMorgan upgraded iRobot to Neutral with a $32 price target following the recent pullback in shares
VRA Vera Bradley risk/reward compelling at current levels, says Jefferies
Jefferies believes Vera Bradley reported solid Q3 results with an "understandably still cautious" outlook amid a difficult retail environment. The firm expects the new CEO to bring new opportunity in 2015 and views the risk/reward on shares as compelling at current levels. Jefferies lowered its price target for shares to $27 from $29 and maintains a Buy rating on the stock

ICE was one of the few stocks in the green yesterday and I'll be looking for some positions, short-term and longer-term. With the sell-off yesterday, the 50dma is something you need to look at on the SPY, with it now sitting at 175.95. I'm not saying we get there, but if we continue to pullback that's where I put my line in the sand.

Here are the strikes I'm looking at for the open:

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
ICE CALL $230.00 December 0.35 0.30
ICE CALL $240.00 January 0.65 0.50

Let's have a great day!

- JB

December 11th, 2013 Watch List

Markets closed Tuesday in the red, with no real catalyst for the move. Of course, if you read the headlines folks are continuing to use the possibility of a Fed-directed "taper" in its economic stimulus program as a reason for markets to be up or down, and I find it to be pretty comedic at this point.

One reason is that a bipartisan budget deal has been reached and, hopefully, will pass. This means there should be fewer financial and economic headwinds heading into 2014 and, that's right: even more chatter of the taper coming sooner rather then later.

Some big news out of Mastercard after hours, with a 10-1 split, a raised dividend and a and stock buyback coming. The news pushed the stock over $800 yesterday and it's trading in the $790s this morning.

COST reported some nice revenue numbers this morning, but another earnings per share (EPS) miss. Traders sold off the stock but it now looks to be rebounding. I didn’t buy any calls yesterday, but I may look for some at the open. COST remains a great story and I think the revenue growth trumps the EPS miss.

Baker Street Capital Management, the firm that posted a bullish piece on SHLD, raised its stake in the company to over 10%, the result being that SHLD is up 4% pre-market. I'd have to think that investment is in the red due to last week's pullback. I'll most likely continue to stay away until the dust settles or I see a true breakout occur.

SINA found some buyers yesterday amid rumors of a Weibo IPO, which is destined to come at any point in the next few months. The chart looks phenomenal for a bounce and I did buy some calls yesterday as well as alerting via text message. Here are my thoughts on SINA: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/sina-sina-set-break-90/

I still love SCTY and I'm looking for a break of $55.60 in the next trading session or two. Also, WYNN had another upgrade this morning and I'm hoping for a move into the $185-plus area.

For those that missed Lee’s Webinar last night, it's now posted in the forum: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/showthread.php/732-Selling-Premium-Against-Long-Term-Positions-With-LeeMalone?p=1335#post1335

A few analyst changes of note today:

FIO CLSA says a takeover of Fusion-io is less likely
CLSA said a takeover scenario of Fusion-io by a storage company, OEM, NAND vendor or component provider is less likey. The firm previously thought EMC would be a likely candidate but no longer believes it wants to buy a PCIe component maker now that it has good results and said NetApp never had interest. The analyst does not believe an OEM would buy Fusion-io because then no other OEM would likely sell its product and believes its size is too big for component vendors. Shares are Underperform rated with a $9 price target, down from $12
HD Home Depot view generally in-line with consensus, says Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank said Home Depot's outlook for FY14 and FY15 is "more or less" in-line with consensus expectations, though adds that the company is potentially being conservative, as it has been in the past. Deutsche keeps a Hold rating and $80 price target on Home Depot
BRCM Broadcom design win leaves deficiencies in LTE business, says Brean Capital
Brean Capital noted Broadcom management was excited about its design win with Samsung but the firm still sees notable deficiencies in its LTE business which need to be rectified to compete longer term. The firm raised its estimates and its price target moves to $33 from $31
AAPL Apple could generate $3 in EPS from China Mobile in 2014, says Bernstein
Bernstein believes that a deal between Apple (AAPL) and China Mobile (CHL) could boost Apple's EPs by $3 in 2014, and raise its 2014 revenue by $9B. But the firm warns that estimates for Apple's March and June quarters appear high. It keeps a $600 price target and Outperform rating on Apple
LULU lululemon investors should buy the dips, says RW Baird
Baird Believes the leadership announcements at lululemon have removed an overhang for the stock. The firm believes the executive change signals little shift in strategy, and the new CEO, Laurent Potdevin has experience in international brand building, technical apparel, and operational experience. Shares are Outperform rated with an $87 price target
WYNN Macau stocks price targets raised at Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo raised its price targets on several companies with Macau casinos as the firm believes that Macau gaming trends have been strong. The firm also thinks that these companies have several upcoming positive catalysts. Wells increased its price target on Las Vegas Sands (LVS) to $80-$90 from $80-$85, on Melco Crown (MPEL) to $40-44 from $38-$42, and on Wynn Resorts (WYNN) to $195-$205 from $185-$195. The firm has Outperform ratings on all three stocks and ranks them in the order presented in the previous sentence
NFLX Netflix price target raised to $390 from $355 at Citigroup
Citigroup raised its price target for Netflix shares to $390 citing the company's international opportunity from the secular growth in Internet video consumption. Citi, however, keeps a Neutral rating on the stock due to valuation

I'll be looking for some COST calls, possibly, as well as some SSYS calls, finally:

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
COST CALL $120.00 Weekly 1.80 0.35
SSYS CALL $135.00 December 0.55 0.55

Lets have a great day!

- JB

December 10, 2013 Watch List

Here come the Doom-and-Gloom headlines, as 2013 begins to wind down while the SPY closed at a record high once again yesterday:

“The Market Could Be Hitting A Dangerous Triple Top” : http://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-could-be-hitting-a-dangerous-triple-top-2013-12-10?dist=beforebell Oh No! Run to the bomb shelters!

“Twitter’s New High, A GDP Warning Sign, And The December Stall": http://blogs.marketwatch.com/need-to-know/2013/12/10/twitters-new-high-a-gdp-warning-sign-and-the-december-stall/ Oh no! More stall concerns!

Futures were solid green overnight but have faded this morning as Europe markets sold off. Gold spiked to near $1260 while the U.S. dollar remains right above $80. After quite a few years of hanging over the banks like the Sword of Damocles, the Volcker rule looks set to be put in place today: http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303560204579248584111312074?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTTopStories

There are also talks that an agreement over the budget may happen shortly, which would alleviate some possible headwinds to start the year.

PVH reported earnings yesterday that beat expectations but issued weak guidance, like it tends to do. The stock is flat pre-market.

AZO reported some decent earnings this morning and has now posted 29 straight quarters of double-digit EPS growth, mostly a result of its share repurchase programs.

I'll be watching COST for earnings tomorrow and I think yesterday's pullback provides an opportunity to get some calls into tomorrow. JOY also reports tomorrow, and it looks interesting.

Lee will be doing his class this afternoon at 4:30PM EST. Here's the link: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/selling-short-term-premium-long-term-positions-leemalone-december-10th-2013-430pm/

UPB did a great morning video to start the day off right. You can check it out here: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/upb-morning-market-video-8/

Here are some of the analyst changes of note for today:

GM General Motors price target raised to $55 from $50 at RBC Capital
RBC Capital raised General Motors price target to $55 from $50 following the U.S. Treasury's news it sold its last remaining shares in the company. The firm believes the news removes a technical overhang and for the focus to shift to capital allocation potential. Shares are Outperform rated and a favorite name in the group
BIDU Baidu shares should be bought, says Pacific Crest
After meeting with Baidu, Pacific Crest believes the company's Q4 trends are stable, while the company can grow at the industry rate going forward. The firm keeps an Outperform rating on the shares
AAPL Carrier checks indicate Apple risk/reward neutral, says Pacific Crest
After conducting checks with carriers in the U.S. and Western Europe, Pacific Crest believes that unit sales of Apple's iPhone will increase by single digit percentage levels in Q4 and 2014. The firm has a target of $480-$585 on Apple
LULU lululemon investors should buy dips, says RW Baird
Baird is growing more cautious on lululemon ahead of Q3 results but believes long-term patient investors will be rewarded. The firm noted decelerating trends since management's last guidance call but sees easier comps ahead and the brand's growth runway remaining intact. Shares are Outperform rated with a $87 price target
YHOO Yahoo price target raised to $44 from $38 at RBC Capital
RBC Capital increased its price target on Yahoo as the firm has greater appreciation for the value of the company's 24% stake in China's Alibaba. RBC Capital's appreciation for Alibaba increased after the firm met with investors and companies in China, and Alibaba announced that it had $5.7B in total volume during China's Singles' Day, which is the equivalent of Cyber Monday, according to the firm. RBC Capital keeps an Outperform rating on Yahoo
TWTR Click through rates for many Twitter users could beat Facebook, says Bernstein
Noting that more than 50% of Twitter users rarely if ever tweet, Bernstein believes that these users may nevertheless be more likely to click on ads than Facebook (FB) users who browse through pictures and comments. The firm, however, keeps a Market Perform rating on Twitter
LL Lumber Liquidators sales trends stronger than expected, says Wedbush
Wedbush says Lumber Liquidators' sales trends are stronger than expected after the company updated its guidance. However, Webush says Lumber's margins "are a bit light." Nonetheless, after speaking to an Asian hardwood flooring import expert yesterday, the firm believes the company's gross margin outlook in 2014 is still strong. Wedbush also thinks Lumber's illegal sourcing issues are likely isolated. The firm has an Outperform rating on the stock with a $125 price target
PVH PVH Corp. premium multiple more than worthy, says Brean Capital
Brean Capital believes PVH Corp is more than worthy of its premium multiple though the firm has reduced its longer-term estimates. Brean Capital views the company's business model as one of the strongest and most reliable in the apparel industry. Shares remain Buy rated with a $150 price target
RHT Red Hat billings growth should reaccelerate, says Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo expects Red Hat's billings growth to reaccelerate into the company's Q4 ending in February. The firm thinks the stock is undervalued and keeps an Outperform rating on the share

I'll be looking to add to my WYNN position today as well as some lotto calls for COST earnings:

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
COST CALL $125.00 Weekly 0.34 0.34
WYNN CALL $190.00 December 0.50 0.50

Let's have a great day!

-JB