General Options Blog

October 28th, 2013 Watch List

Leave a comment

We're entering the last week of October, with the markets at all-time highs and the SPY looking to make it four green weeks in a row. Futures were pointing to a large open last night, yet they lost all their gains and are slightly red at the moment. Just as with last week, the best days for me are when the market finds some footing below the gap, then slowly rallies the rest of the day. Hopefully it plays out that way today.

We have tons of earnings reports out this week as well as the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a statement out at 2pm Wednesday. Barring an increase or taper of the current purchase program, it should be somewhat of a non-event.

AAPL earnings kick-off the week and could provide some momentum for stocks. AAPL guidance has been less conservative with Cook at the helm, but I still think they will beat expectations. It'll also be interesting to see if anything is done about the stock buyback being pushed by Carl Icahn. I'm staying away from AAPL, most likely, as even the 600 calls are somewhat pricey and it seems more bullish folks are out there on the stock. There are always other plays...

I'll be looking to get back in SSYS after a week-long hiatus, with DDD reporting before the bell Tuesday. DDD had an upgrade today and should put a bid in the 3-d stocks. I haven't been in SAM for some time, but I'll try to get a few lottos into earnings for Wednesday as well.

I love Cracker Barrel and will look for a break above $110 this week.

Here's the Week Ahead Webinar for those that missed it last night: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/showthread.php/644-The-Week-Ahead-With-UPB-and-JB-10-27-2013

I spoke about quite a few of the earnings plays, but with no specifics on strikes. I'll be posting my possible entries and real entries via the watchlist, chatroom and private twitter.

Again, I'm hoping for a consolidation week to set us up for new highs and maybe $180 on the SPY before the year's out.

Here are some of the analyst changes of note for today:

DNDN Wedbush 'very doubtful' a buyer will emerge for Dendreon
Wedbush said it is "very doubtful" that any buyer will emerge for Dendreon given a lack of profitability and the declining sales of Provenge. The firm sees little to no value for the common stock and reiterates an Underperform rating on the name with a $0 price target
ARO Aeropostale provides a compelling risk/reward profile, says Susquehanna
Susquehanna believes Aeropostales provides a compelling risk/reward on the belief the company can sell fashion, expectations that OPM expansion is real, and management's cost reduction strategy. Shares are Positive rated but price target lowered to $13 from $15
CLF Cliffs Natural price target raised to $23-$26 from $20-$24 at Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo increased its price target on Cliffs Natural as the firm thinks the company reported strong Q3 earnings. However, the firm believes that iron ore pricing has a negative bias over the long-term, and it thinks that the prices may have peaked. As a result it keeps a Market Perform rating on Cliffs Natural
NQ NQ Mobile weakness a 'rare opportunity' for investors, says Macquarie
Macquarie believes NQ Mobile weakness due to the negative Muddy Waters accusations is a "rare opportunity" for investors to purchase shares. The firm's research indicates classifying term deposits as Level 2 asset is common practice in order to meet U.S. GAAP guidelines. The firm notes that Baidu and Sina have substantial parts of their cash classified as Level 2 assets and believes it has no bearing on NQ Mobile's operations. Shares are Buy rated with a $26 price target
P Pandora not materially impacted by iTunes Radio, says Canaccord
Canaccord's survey indicates 92% of iTunes Radio (AAPL) listeners still use Pandora (P), indicating Pandora's October metrics are unlikely to be impacted by iTunes Radio. The firm believes this could be a positive catalysts for Pandora shares and reiterates its Buy rating and $30 price target
AAPL Apple Q4 estimates raised above consensus at Cantor
Cantor predicts that Apple's Q4 results will beat consensus estimates, and the firm expects the company's EPS to rise in FY14 versus FY13. Cantor now believes that the stock can surpass its $777 price target ,and it keeps a Buy rating on the shares
DDD 3D Systems price target raised to $70 from $60 at Brean Capital
Brean Capital raised its price target for 3D Systems to $70 on expectations the company's solid unit growth will continue through 2015. The firm expects the consensus estimates for 2014 and 2015 to move higher and keeps a Buy rating on the stock
SCTY SolarCity reinstated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse
Price target raised to $75 from $52

Here are the strikes I'm looking at for today:

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
SSYS CALL $130.00 Nov 0.65 0.60
SSYS CALL $135.00 Nov 0.40 0.30
SAM CALL $270.00 Nov 1.85 0.80
SAM CALL $280.00 Nov 1.50 0.60

Let's have a great start to the week and good luck to all in AAPL!

- JB

The Heisenberg Indicator – Still Shining

Leave a comment

hbinA glimmering blue beacon since the 2008 financial crisis, the Heisenberg Indicator remains flawless in predicting price action for the market. Current projections show the DJIA at 17,000 and the S&P500 at 1,850. These are the same projections from July when media talking heads thought the taper was going to derail stocks. These are the same projections from August when the market was going to collapse because of the Syria crisis. These are also the same projections from earlier this month when the government shutdown was going to bring the markets to their knees. Getting the idea yet?

At any rate, CNBC analysts have been saying to sell every step of the way. The infamous Hindenburg Omen, the oft mentioned and always wrong technical analysis pattern, received a great deal of press this past summer. In fact, the Omen received more media attention than the birth of that Kardashian Compass Kid, East West South. Hindenburg was supposedly alerting YOU to an impending market CRASH! And yes; we've written in the past here at optionmillionaires.com about the possibility of a crash:  https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/stock-market-ready-crash/

Here's what we've been saying for years: EVERY DIP since the market lows in 2009 has been a fabulous buying opportunity. Our videos, our blog posts, in the chat room...everywhere. The Heisenberg Indicator (HI) is saying that as well.  Meanwhile the bears, the bearish sites, the bearish blogs -- who somehow have a nickel left to short this market and continue to be wrong some 4+ years later -- still say "sell." But even a broken clock is right twice a day (yes, I use this line often).  

Let's get one thing straight: this is a centrally planned market. We are piling on billions upon billions of dollars worth of debt. And I agree with the bears: none of this will end well. Rest assured, when it's time to sell I'll be selling as well. But why fight the trend? Why fight against someone with an unlimited credit card? Why fight such a bullish long-term chart? Why keep losing money every day?

When the bears finally do get on the wagon, we'll know the top is here. But for now the top could be a long distance away. 

Here are the links to our recent articles on the (HI):

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/heisenberg-indicator-projections-for-2013/

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/the-heisenberg-indicator/

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/the-heisenberg-indicator-hi-preliminary-readings-are-in-stocks-to-rise-into-the-fall/

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/beware-of-exploding-dirigibles/

November (HI) projections will be out this week. I think we'll see readings similar to October's as well as confirmation of the 17,000 DJIA and 1,850 S&P projections.  Stay tuned.