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LIVE Webinar – The Week Ahead With Jimmybob and UPB

theweekahead

First-quarter earnings season starts this week with the traditional kickoff by Alcoa (AA) on Monday after the close of the stock market session. Other than earnings investors can expect a handful of economic data related to consumer sentiment and inflation, among other things.

Stock markets have defied economic trends in recent months with major markets moving higher despite mixed data in housing, labor and retail. Where will we head this coming week? What stocks will rally and what stocks will fall?

We will cover this and more tonight in a live webinar. Registration details below:

Please register for The Week Ahead with UPB and JB on Apr 7, 2013 10:30 PM EDT at:

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/6363628404420672000

The Week Ahead with UPB and JB

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.

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How To Trade A Rally In $BIDU Shares

bidu123

Over the last several trading sessions we've watched $BIDU plunge to new multi-year lows, which is in complete contrast to the rest of the stock market. $BIDU used to be a high flyer, a momentum stock that rallied 10 fold from its financial crisis lows. Yet the last few months the stock has lost its shine and has seen numerous analyst downgrades. I think the stock will recover from its recent lows and post a move back over the $100 figure in the coming trading days.

If you look at the chart, the stock is at the bottom of the wedge, and should see a $20 or better bounce to the top of it. That is what I will trade for.

How will I position myself so I can profit off this move? I am already in the weekly calls for $BIDU $87.5 and $90 strike and plan on moving out to next weeks $90 calls. If you look at the option activity today it looks like many beat me to the punch as far as buying next weeks $90 calls. As I noted a few times via the audio feed in chat today, the premiums on the $BIDU option contracts remain, in my view appealing.

According to data from my trading platform the $90 calls at $.44 for next week have a 17% chance of going in the money. The $87.50's which are $1.00, have a 35% chance of going in the money. I think those numbers are much lower than what I anticipate, I'd put the odds on a move to $90 and better by next Fridays weekly option expiration at 70% and a move to over $100 in the early part of April at 70%.

Below are the two option chains for BIDU and, in my view, the most attractive strikes to enter.

bidumar22

bidumarh28

Update on the Trade Idea From Yesterdays Text (Gold & Diamond)

 

As part of being a member at OptionMillionaires.com, you can sign up to receive trade ideas. These are usually sent out by Myself(JimmyBob) or UPB. These texts are trades we have made where we feel the strongest about during the week. If you are reading this, that means you are either a Gold or Diamond member and if you want to receive them and you haven't,  you can go here: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/sms-stock-option-alerts/

We will start tracking the success, or lack thereof , of these alerts so folks can have an idea of when/who to pay attention to. I also spoke to UPB, and going forward we will have a blog/forum post ready right after we send the text alert out, with our reason why we purchased, as well as a possible exit strategy.

So far we have 3 alerts out. AAPL CALLS, SODA CALLS, and FFIV CALLS.

UPB AAPL text trade has been the most successful thus far and you can read that here: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/aapl-text-alert/

My (JimmyBob) alert was the SODA 52.50 calls @ .15. They never rose higher then .20, and expired worthless if you held to the end.

Yesterday I alerted my FFIV trade for the 92.50 calls @ .28, they went as low as .19 yesterday and hit .46 and closed .42 x .47. We said we like FFIV over $92 and will hold ours till then. This strategy may result in holding worthless options come friday, but we are confident in the bounce and think $94 came come before expiry.

Look forward to another text alert on a trade we make next week, and a tracker following each play.

Happy Trading!!

- JB

 

 

 

Earnings and Upgrades

Here are today's earnings as well as upgrades and downgrades. This list will be updated as more analyst changes, initiations come in. Futures are higher to start the week. We have a great earnings week in store with some volatile stocks reporting. Check the forum for more details:

Upgrades for today:

07:34 EDT KMR
: Kinder Morgan Management initiated with an Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley
Target $84. :
07:34 EDT TCK : Teck Resources initiated with an Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley :
07:34 EDT OC
: Owens Corning downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo downgraded Owens Corning citing a lack of visibility towards 2013 estimates following the company's Q4 results. The firm raised its price target range for shares to $41-$43 from $36-$38. :
07:34 EDT TRI
: Thomson Reuters initiated with an Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley
Target $39. :
07:34 EDT RKUS
: Ruckus Wireless shares should be bought ahead of mid-year, says Oppenheimer
After meeting with Ruckus's management, Oppenheimer recommends that investors buy the stock ahead of what the firm calls normal mid-year increases in education and hospitality WiFi spending. The firm also predicts that the company's revenue from carriers will likely accelerate in 2H13-2014, and it maintains an Outperform rating on the shares. :
07:33 EDT FCN : FTI Consulting upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Northland :
07:33 EDT MRK
: Merck attractive ahead of interim IMPROVE-IT trial, says Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse sees a buying opportunity ahead of upcoming interim look at Vytorin IMPROVE-IT trial with expected disclosures around March 12-15. The firm said expectations skewed negative and that potential results look positive. The analyst views valuation as attractive and sees the pipeline as undervalued. Shares are Outperform rated with a $52 price target. :
07:31 EDT HNZ
: Heinz downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
Citigroup downgraded Heinz citing the takeover by Berkshire Hathaway and 3G Capital. :
07:25 EDT AKAM
: Akamai upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie
Macquarie believes Akamai's (AKAM) miss was due to the Netflix (NFLX) migration to its own CDN and that when Akamai fills the capacity it will be at higher margins. As a result, the firm views the recent sell-off as a buying opportunity and upgraded shares to Buy with a $42 price target, raised from $41.50. :
07:23 EDT AAPL
: Apple price target lowered to $710 from $750 at Needham
Needham lowered its price target for Apple shares but maintained its 2013 and 2014 earnings estimates for the company. The price target drop followed Needham's semi-annual exercise of valuing Apple's products. The firm keeps a Buy rating on the stock. :
07:20 EDT KAMN
: Kaman strategic alliance appears to be "game changer," says Stifel Nicolaus
Stifel Nicolaus thinks that Kaman's strategic alliance with Wajax Industrial, announced last week, could bring revenue and earnings growth without a large investment in inventory or facilities. The firm predicts that Kaman will report higher than expected Q4 EPS but lower than expected revenue, and it maintains a Buy rating on the shares. :
07:16 EDT MSFT
: Microsoft must consider splitting up, says Stifel Nicolaus
Stifel Nicolaus believes that Microsoft should seriously consider splitting itself into a software unit and hardware unit, and distributing shares of one of the units to shareholders, The firm contends that the company is no longer realizing synergies from keeping all of its businesses together, and it thinks the current structure has several disadvantages. Stifel believes that the company would increase shareholder value by splitting up and it maintains a Buy rating on the shares. :
07:12 EDT WPZ
: Williams Partners downgraded to Accumulate from Buy at Global Hunter
Global Hunter downgraded Williams Partners following lowered guidance. Price target is $54. :
07:08 EDT CAMP
: CalAmp initiated with an Outperform at Northland Securities
Target $14.25. :
07:08 EDT COF, BBY
: Capital One price target lowered to $65 from $69 at Stifel Nicolaus
Stifel Nicolaus reduced its price target on Capital One after the company sold its Best Buy (BBY) card loans. Stifel believes that the transaction will be dilutive for Capital One, but thinks the market has overreacted to the company's recent news and maintains a Buy rating. :
07:04 EDT TPH
: TRI Pointe Homes initiated with an Outperform at JMP Securities
Target $23. :
07:04 EDT AFFY
: Affymax downgraded at Stifel Nicolaus
As noted earlier, Stifel Nicolaus downgraded Affymax to Hold from Buy. Stifel downgraded the stock after the company announced a voluntary recall of all lots of its Omontys because of serious hypersensitivity reactions. :
07:03 EDT EBAY
: eBay removed from Best Ideas List at Wedbush
Wedbush removed eBay from its Best Ideas List but maintains its Outperform rating and $64 price target citing relative outperformance. :
06:57 EDT AFFY
: Affymax downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel Nicolaus
Note this is the fourth downgrade of the day. :
06:55 EDT PLCE : Children's Place downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Janney Capital :
06:51 EDT CBSH : Commerce Bancshares downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Raymond James :
06:50 EDT TSS : Total System upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James :
06:50 EDT OXY : Occidental upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James :
06:49 EDT WBMD : WebMD upgraded to Strong Buy from Market Perform at Raymond James :
06:48 EDT PAAS
: Pan American Silver upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord
Canaccord transferred coverage on Pan American Silver with a Buy rating from a Hold citing valuation, strong balance sheet, financial discipline, and exploration/production opportunities. Price target raised to $23.50 from $22. :
06:46 EDT BRY
: Berry Petroleum downgraded to Neutral from Positive at Susquehanna
Berry Petroleum (BRY) is being acquired by LINN Energy (LINE). :
06:45 EDT ROC
: Rockwood upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at First Analysis
First Analysis upgraded Rockwood citing potential break-up value. Price target is $75. :
06:44 EDT ABAX : Abaxis downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill :
06:43 EDT SWN
: Southwestern Energy upgraded to Conviction Buy from Buy at Goldman
Goldman upgraded Southwestern Energy to reflect under-appreciated Marcellus Shale assets and its Fayetteville Shale opportunity. Price target raised to $46 from $44. :
06:43 EDT NBL
: Noble Energy downgraded to Buy from Conviction Buy at Goldman
Goldman removed Noble Energy from its Conviction Buy List due to valuation. PRice target remains $134. :
06:42 EDT APPY
: Venaxis upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord
Canaccord believes Venaxis' is on track for the first FDA approved blood test aiding in identifying patients at low risk for appendicitis. Price target raised to $7 from $2.50. :
06:40 EDT TDW : Tidewater downgraded to Neutral from Buy at ISI Group :
06:40 EDT GLF : GulfMark Offshore downgraded to Buy from Strong Buy at ISI Group :
06:39 EDT NDSN
: Nordson upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital
BMO Capital upgraded Nordson based on valuation and improving fundamentals. Price target raised to $74 from $63. :
06:39 EDT SM
: SM Energy downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital
BMO Capital downgraded SM Energy due to valuation. Price target remains $65. :
06:37 EDT NVE
: NV Energy downgraded to Hold from Buy at Wunderlich
Wunderlich downgraded NV Energy citing valuation and rising regulatory risk. The firm keeps a $20 price target for shares. :
06:36 EDT GILD : Gilead added to U.S. 1 List at BofA/Merrill :
06:32 EDT ASNA
: Ascena Retail downgraded to Hold from Buy at KeyBanc
KeyBanc believes the middle income consumer is being pressured by the recent increase in gas prices and the impact of the payroll tax which will make Ascena's turnaround and integration more difficult. :
06:32 EDT ARO
: Aeropostale downgraded to Hold from Buy at KeyBanc
KeyBanc believes the middle income consumer is being pressured by the recent increase in gas prices and the impact of the payroll tax which will make Aeropostale's move towards higher fashion content more difficult. :
06:27 EDT STZ
: Constellation Brands initiated with a Buy at SunTrust
Target $60. :
06:26 EDT CMI
: Cummins upgraded to Conviction Buy from Buy at Goldman
Goldman added Cummins to its Conviction Buy List due to a strong new Machinery product cycle and the early stages of a recovery in its core global truck markets. Price target is $144. :
06:23 EDT PRGO
: Perrigo upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS
UBS upgraded Perrigo based on improved visibility into earnings growth following recent acquisitions, stable generics growth, growth for nutritionals, and strong free cash flow. Price target raised to $130 from $115. :
06:20 EDT IP : International Paper upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan :
06:19 EDT RKT : RockTenn upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan :
06:17 EDT TPH
: TRI Pointe Homes initiated with an Outperform at FBR Capital
Target $22. :
06:16 EDT ATLS
: Atlas Energy upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at RW Baird
Baird upgraded Atlas Energy based on increased higher than expected 2013 distribution guidance. Price target raised to $45 from $43. :
06:16 EDT AMGN, AFFY
: Amgen likely to trade up after Affymax recall, says Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray views the recall of Affymax's (AFFY) Omontys as a positive for Amgen's (AMGN) Epogen. Piper estimates the recall could add an additional $300M-$500M of Epogen sales per year through 2016 and raised its price target for Amgen shares to $107 from $104. The firm keeps an Overweight rating on the stock. :
06:14 EDT SWY : Safeway upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BofA/Merrill :
06:14 EDT ETN
: Eaton initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse
Target $72. :
06:13 EDT AFFY
: Affymax downgraded to Underperform from Outperform at JMP Securities
JMP Securities downgraded Affymax following the recall of Omontys. Note this is the third downgrade of the day. :
06:12 EDT AFFY
: Affymax downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at RW Baird
RW Baird downgraded Affymax following the recall of Omontys and lowered its price target for shares to $4 from $30. Note Affymax shares were also downgraded this morning at Piper Jaffray. :
06:10 EDT AFFY
: Affymax downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray downgraded Affymax (AFFY) following the voluntary safety recall of Omontys. Piper expects shares to approach the company's cash value of $2 per share. The firm believes the Omontys recall is a positive for Amgen’s (AMGN) Epogen. :
06:08 EDT BUD : AB InBev upgraded to Neutral from Reduce at Nomura :
05:47 EDT AGU
: Agrium pullback a buying opportunity, says Citigroup
Citigroup views the post-Q4 earnings release pullback in shares of Agrium as a buying opportunity. Citi says the company's order book is solid into the spring and keeps a Buy rating on the name despite lowering its price target for shares to $115 from $120. :
05:40 EDT VMW
: VMware upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citigroup
Citigroup upgraded VMware to Neutral citing valuation and a lack of negative catalysts. The firm keeps a $75 price target for shares. :
05:38 EDT KPLUF
: K+S upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup
Citigroup upgraded K+S citing the recovery in potash demand. :
05:36 EDT ENDP
: Endo Health downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray downgraded Endo Health to Underweight citing Opana and Lidoderm generic competition risk. Piper thinks a company buyout is unlikely and lowered its price target for shares to $22 from $28. :
05:33 EDT TPH
: TRI Pointe Homes initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank
Target $21. :
18:43 EDT MYL
: Mylan South Africa unit launches a comprehensive portfolio of ARV products
Mylan announced that its subsidiary in South Africa, Mylan Limited, has launched a comprehensive portfolio of antiretroviral, ARV, products. South Africa has the world's largest HIV/AIDS population, with approximately 5.6 million1 people living with the disease and an estimated 1.7 million2 people receiving treatment. :
Earnings for today:

Lowe's Companies (NYSE: LOW) is projected to report its Q4 earnings at $0.23 per share on revenue of $10.84 billion.

3D Systems (NYSE: DDD) is expected to report its Q4 earnings at $0.38 per share on revenue of $103.86 million.

Hertz Global Holdings (NYSE: HTZ) is estimated to report its Q4 earnings at $0.31 per share on revenue of $2.24 billion.

Cooper Tire & Rubber Co (NYSE: CTB) is projected to report its Q4 earnings at $0.85 per share on revenue of $1.03 million.

Aegion (NASDAQ: AEGN) is estimated to post its Q4 earnings at $0.42 per share on revenue of $282.44 million.

Donaldson Company (NYSE: DCI) is expected to report its Q2 earnings at $0.38 per share on revenue of $605.26 million.

Amira Nature Foods (NYSE: ANFI) is estimated to report its Q3 earnings at $0.13 per share on revenue of $84.73 million.

Autodesk (NASDAQ: ADSK) is expected to post its Q4 earnings at $0.49 per share on revenue of $586.16 million.

Titan International (NYSE: TWI) is projected to post its Q4 earnings at $0.47 per share on revenue of $560.08 million.

Kindred Healthcare (NYSE: KND) is estimated to post its Q4 earnings at $0.43 per share on revenue of $1.57 billion.

FirstEnergy (NYSE: FE) is projected to report its Q4 earnings at $0.80 per share on revenue of $4.60 billion.

Stifel Financial (NYSE: SF) is estimated to post its Q4 earnings at $0.60 per share on revenue of $418.40 million.

Quicksilver Resources (NYSE: KWK) is expected to report its Q4 earnings at $0.01 per share on revenue of $168.69 million.

AmSurg (NASDAQ: AMSG) is projected to post its Q4 earnings at $0.51 per share on revenue of $237.94 million.

URS (NYSE: URS) is expected to post its Q4 earnings at $0.95 per share on revenue of $2.96 billion.

General Cable (NYSE: BGC) is estimated to report its Q4 earnings at $0.24 per share on revenue of $1.61 billion.

ONEOK (NYSE: OKE) is expected to post its Q4 earnings at $0.45 per share on revenue of $3.31 billion.

Mindray Medical International (NYSE: MR) is projected to post its Q4 earnings at $0.44 per share on revenue of $309.30 million.

Dendreon (NASDAQ: DNDN) is expected to report a Q4 loss at $0.56 per share on revenue of $82.88 million.

Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ: CZR) is projected to post a Q4 loss at $2.04 per share on revenue of $2.11 billion.

Hecla Mining Co (NYSE: HL) is estimated to report its Q4 earnings at $0.03 per share on revenue of $76.90 million.

Solar Capital (NASDAQ: SLRC) is projected to post its Q4 earnings at $0.59 per share on revenue of $40.04 million.

Ship Finance International (NYSE: SFL) is expected to report its Q4 earnings at $0.33 per share on revenue of $89.92 million.

Shanda Games (NASDAQ: GAME) is estimated to post its Q4 earnings at $0.14 per share on revenue of $171.96 million.

VIVUS (NASDAQ: VVUS) is expected to post a Q4 loss at $0.44 per share on revenue of $3.09 million.

Gulfmark Offshore (NYSE: GLF) is projected to post its Q4 earnings at $0.27 per share on revenue of $99.57 million.

Arbitron (NYSE: ARB) is estimated to post its Q4 earnings at $0.65 per share on revenue of $123.65 million.

Health Care REIT (NYSE: HCN) is expected to post its Q4 earnings at $0.84 per share on revenue of $497.69 million.

Aqua America (NYSE: WTR) is projected to report its Q4 earnings at $0.28 per share on revenue of $197.06 million.

Oasis Petroleum (NYSE: OAS) is estimated to post its Q4 earnings at $0.48 per share on revenue of $210.53 million.

Ariad Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ARIA) is expected to post a Q4 loss at $0.35 per share on revenue of $500.00 thousand.

Rosetta Resources (NASDAQ: ROSE) is estimated to report its Q4 earnings at $0.93 per share on revenue of $183.06 million.