All posts by jimmybob

Jim Cramer upgrades PCLN (Priceline.com) to Sell. Sell?

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You have to love the antics of Jim Cramer. I give credit to the guy, he is entertaining at times. But I guess you have to be when your on National T.V giving out stock advice... the type of advice that has lost hard working blue-collar folks lots of money. Heck, Cramers remarks about Bear Stearns right before the collapse, will go down in infamy. (Watch it here:)

Over time, you learn to tune out the noise, and focus on the trade. So why talk about Jim Cramer today? Well because he created his "Pigs get slaughtered" list. (Here for the article) . The uber bullish Cramer, who has helped pump the "High Flying Stocks" of the past two years, is now saying stay away.

His little baby CRM is on the list, as well as LULU, GMCR, PCLN, FOSL. "Well golly gee willikers Jim, You sure nailed those!". Why didn't you say stay away PCLN at $550?? Oh thats right, because you said PCLN would continue to move higher if it beat on earnings:

Priceline.com (PCLN): This online travel deal company reports their 3rd quarter Monday after the markets close. Cramer thinks this is one of the few high-flyers that haven’t been crimped. In order for the stock to continue flying high, Cramer said the market needs to see $1.42 billion in revenue along with proof that Europeans are still flying.

LULU, FOSL, and GMCR also off 25%+ from their recent highs. Come on Cramer? PCLN is off $100 in under 30 days, and NOW you say something!?! 

What a joke. Its obvious there are other factors involved in PCLN's recent sell-off, including funds reducing their risk in equities. But PCLN remains the behemoth of growth stocks, this sell off non-withstanding.

I would compare the Dec 14th warning from Jim Cramer to stay away from PCLN, to a mom telling the child to keep their hands out of the cookie jar. It doesn't really do anything more then remind us the cookies are there... and we all like a good cookie.

PCLN looks to be setting up nicely for a reversal, with some above average volume today. It tested the lower bollie again, but looks ready to break to the $480-$490 level in the next few days.

PCLN 12-15

Dont worry Jim, I know you are nervous about leading your sheep into the slaughterhouse once again. But the sheep are smarter this go around. Are you??

Check the chat and forum for more trading ideas.

 

 

PCLN (Priceline.com) : Book your profits here?

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Priceline (PCLN) is one of the few remaining "momentum stocks" that hasn't succumb to it's lofty expectations. The last few months have seen many of the high fliers, come crashing down to reality. Stockw like: NFLX, TZOO, OPEN, SINA have all been a victim of their own success. Driven to insane heights, only to come down just as hard on some fundamental or news worthy item that the street didn't like.

Priceline has avoided that fate, for the time being. The company has actually reported earnings that have demolished expectations, and almost doubled its EPS year over year for it's last Quarter.

With most analysts price targets at $610 and above, one would think PCLN would have lifted off post earnings and hit all-time highs. The lift-off did happen post earnings, for a day. Then the sell-off began. PCLN topped out at a little over $550, and a close to a month later, sits at $445.It also bounced off it's lower bollie band today.

PCLN

 

Retail traders are not responsible for the sell-off, and looks more like hedge funds or institutional investors, taking some of their position off the table. Goldman Sacks also put the put the internet sector on it's buy list today sans Yahoo.

Normally that would be enough to prevent the 4% haircut in PCLN shares today, but Goldman Sacks has lost their luster.

We do like PCLN here for some action on the calls side. Catching options on the right side of the trade in a stock trading in the hundred dollar level, can equal huge gains.

Make sure you sign up for our mailing list or be in the chat room for strike price and dates.

 

 

 

FSLR – First Solar under $40 on lower guidance

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First Solar issued lower guidance for FY '12 this morning and the market responded,  giving the stock a 20% mohawk and taken to the proverbial WOODSHED.

We have been all over the demise of the solar sector, and todays news is only the tip of the iceberg : (LINK)

 

Quite honestly, last weeks asset sale should have been a clear signal to get the heck out of the stock if you were long, and go short/puts.:
As of today, Sunpower (SPWR) and First Solar(FSLR) remain the last two solar companies trading above the dreaded $5 level. It will only be a few more months before our bold prediction comes to fruition : (LINK)

Its trades like this that can make your year , and ensure your days are spent trading stocks and not flipping burgers.

 

 

The Path Less Traveled

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Making decisions is part of life, and we make them every second of our day.

Do I have Mcdonalds for lunch?

Do I call my mom today?

Do I give money to the bum with the change jar?

Do I SHORT the Euro???

 

Some of these decisions are easy, as human nature to follow the herd down the road most traveled.

Do I have Mcdonalds?: Yes, even though it makes you feel like a pig!

Do I call my mom today? Yes, because it makes you feel like you are a good son/daughter.

Do I give money to the bum with the change jar? No, because you see him with hundreds in his jar every week.

Do I SHORT the Euro? No, because that is the road MOST traveled!

 

 

Every two bit analysts and forex expert has been saying they are short the Euro, and why not. With the impending implosion of the Eurozone, the Euro is sure to come down to parity with the US dollar. It would only make sense with all the debt troubles. But if the market was this easy, we would all be Millionaires. You wouldn't be reading this blog, or subscribing to out site. Heck, i wouldn't be writing about it... But its the EXACT reason why i am.

The Euro isnt going to SHIT like everyone is betting on. Why? Well those are questions to answer somewhere down the road. This market is not rational, and taking the road MOST traveled will sometimes land you in the poor house.

I will have an update on friday, and will bet the EUR has risen nicely against the USD.

 

Disclosure: I Just went long the EUR/USD at 130.22

FSLR – First Solar Selling Assets? Not a good sign.

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When a press release combines Buffet and Billions, the stock attached to that release, is sure to see some upside action. First Solar released news this morning that it was selling its much hyped $2 billion topaz farm project to MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co. This stock has been taken to the woodshed this year, and soared 10%+ to 51.86 in morning trade on the news.

Now folks who read our blog and spend time in our chatroom, know our feelings on FSLR. We have written about FSLR the past few months, and have played her like a textbook. Which means buying puts into a Gap... Which is what we did today.

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2011/fslr-and-the-solars/

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2011/solars-the-next-pennystocks/

FSLR still remains a troubled company, and the asset sale confirms that. Folks buying into the hype, were taught a lesson, as the stock closed at $47.99.

We went short via the $47 and $48 PUTS after the open on Wednesday, and our options were up 300%+ on the day. We fully expect FSLR to touch the $45 level before the weeks out.

 

Below is the news from Marketwatch:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/first-solar-selling-calif-plant-to-midamerican-2011-12-07

By Melodie Warner

First Solar Inc. FSLR +4.08% agreed to sell a solar power plant being built in California to MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co. as part of the solar-panel maker's plans to reduce spending.

The $2 billion Topaz Solar Farm project -- a 550-megawatt photovoltaic power plant being built in San Luis Obispo County, Calif. -- will have the capacity to generate enough renewable energy to power about 160,000 average homes. Pacific Gas & Electric Co. will purchase the electricity under a 25-year power purchase agreement.

First Solar has agreed to construct, operate and maintain the Topaz project for MidAmerican, an energy services provider. Construction is expected to be complete by early 2015.

First Solar said in October it intended to reduce spending next year and was looking at opportunities to reallocate overhead expenses to fund increased investments in research and development, among other things.

The company reported its third-quarter profit climbed 11% but badly missed expectations despite a 26% jump in sales.

Shares were trading 3.6% higher at $47.75 premarket. The stock has fallen 65% so far this year through Tuesday's close.