Wednesday Rant and Recap 2-18-15

Markets gyrated between gains in losses today but a sharp end of day spike landed stocks into positive territory at the close.  In the afternoon the minutes were released from the last FED meeting.  Conclusion?  Patience.  Over six years into unprecedented Central Bank action and record high stock prices, the FED remains cautious.  Patient.  The Zero Percent Interest Rate policy of 2008 will remain in place for a lot longer.

The action remains rather muted, subdued, quiet, relaxed, the perfect environment for stocks to grind higher.


The perma-bears who have miraculously survived the biggest bull market of our lifetime and are still happily writing about it, remind me of a New York Jet fan.  It's been a long time since they've done anything meaningful.  Each Fed Meeting is like the start of an NFL season for these fans, so much hope, so much promise that the FED will screw it all up.

So far, like almost every NY Jet season, it ends as expected .  The bears are left waiting for the next FED meeting.  It's been an agonizing wait.

"QE is such a failure"

"Growth on the back of abnormally low interest rates is unsustainable"

"Markets will crash when the taper starts"

"Markets will crash when the taper ends"

"A Strong US Dollar will drag the stock market down"

"If they raise rates too soon...."

I've been resigned to the fact that Central Bank's will be lending a helping hand to the market and the 'economy' for the foreseeable future, which means the dips will get bought, bonds will get bought, and everything will be fine and dandy....right?

There are cracks forming.  Oil has pulled back significantly and while it has rebounded I don't think the carnage is over.  Jobs lost in the energy sector will slowly ripple through the rest of the economy.  With low interest rates fueling growth, there are bubbles forming that will burst down the road.

For now stocks remain the place to be.  War, terrorism, Greece, Syria, seemingly every headwind is a buying opportunity.  In fact it could be argued that the market is more impervious to news and events than ever before.  Greece talks broke down this weekend and stock futures dropped a rather dull .2%.   When the market opened on Tuesday stocks had recovered all those losses and then some.


Yesterdays $GRMN trade worked out nicely this morning as the stock dropped over 10%.  The chart from yesterdays earnings trade post:  The puts went up over 320% today alone.


A few other trades posted in the chat room and forum as well.

Yesterdays Unusual Option Trade impressed today soaring over 2% and saw some more unusual buying at the same strike and expiration as yesterday.  The options are up some 50% from yesterday.  Let's see if this rally continues tomorrow.

How about $Zillow?  $Z rocketed higher today taking call option with it.  Almost 8,000% on the $130 calls.

The $SPY continues to consolidate for a move to the paint high of late December 2014.  Volume is light and while many point to this as a problem going forward, we've been hearing about light volume for many years.

To me it's all about the buybacks.  Low interest rates, cheap debt, buy back that stock baby.  

Shrinking supply of stock and steady demand.

Have a great night.  Here is some more from

From Marketwatch:


Shares of alternative energy companies fell under pressure in the extended session Wednesday after SolarCity Corp. results and SunEdison Inc. sales fell short of Wall Street expectations.

After Hours

SolarCity (SCTY) shares fell 5.3% to $54.10 on heavy volume after the company reported an adjusted loss of $1.33 a share for the fourth quarter when analysts polled by FactSet were looking for a loss of $1.27 a share.

SunEdison(SUNE) shares shed 4% to trade at $21.14 on heavy volume after the company reported quarterly sales of $625.5 million when analysts were looking for $663.3 million.

Conventional energy companies did not fare much better: EOG Resources Inc.(EOG) shares fell 6.9% to $88.70 on moderate volume after the company reported earnings that missed the Street view and reduced capital spending plans.

Marathon Oil Corp.(MRO) shares declined 0.9% to $28.75 on moderate volume after the oil and gas exploration and production company broke even for the quarter and cut its capital budget.

Marriott International Inc. (MAR) shares rose 3.1% to $83.95 on moderate volume after the hotel operator's quarterly results and outlook came in ahead of analyst forecasts.

Avis Budget Group Inc. (CAR) shares slipped 0.6% to $62.30 on moderate volume as sales for the quarter and the company's outlook fell short of consensus estimates.

Six Flags Entertainment Corp.(SIX) shares rose 4.5% to $48.40 on moderate volume after the theme-park operator posted a narrower-than-expected loss on improved revenue.

These were the stocks making notable moves during the regular session on Wednesday:


Angie's List Inc.(ANGI) posted quarterly profit and revenue that topped Wall Street's expectations.

Boston Scientific Inc.(BSX) gained in the wake of news late Tuesday that the company has settled with Johnson & Johnson Inc.(JNJ) over the acquisition of Guidant Corp. in 2004.

Yandex NV (YNDX) reported a jump in quarterly profit and said it has reported U.S. rival Google Inc. (GOOGL)(GOOG) to Russian authorities for alleged antitrust practices.

Virgin America Inc. (VA) reported better-than-forecast fourth-quarter earnings and revenue.

Flowserve Corp.(FLS) late Tuesday reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.16 a share.

Duke Energy Corp.(DUK) offered a weak outlook for 2015 as it posted weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings in its energy business, due to a drought hurting its Brazilian operations.


Fossil Group Inc.(FOSL) reported adjusted fourth-quarter earnings that missed expectations, along with revenue that disappointed.

Garmin Ltd.(GRMN) on Wednesday released a tepid outlook for 2015, citing the adverse impact of a stronger U.S. currency and weak demand for navigation devices.

FirstEnergy Corp.(FE) said late Tuesday it swung to a loss of 73 cents a share in the fourth quarter from a profit of 34 cents a share. On an adjusted basis, the company earned 80 cents a share.

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) gave a soft earnings outlook for 2015, though its quarterly revenue beat forecasts.

Known to most as Uranium Pinto Beans, Jason has more than 15 years under his belt of trading stocks, options and currencies. His expertise primarily lies in chart analysis, and he has a strong eye for undervalued stock. Because he’s got the ability to identify great risk/reward trades he usually enjoys taking the path less traveled and reaping the benefits from the adventure.

He is a co-founder of Option Millionaires, and he is best known for his weekly webinars with Scott, as well as his high level training webinars and charts found in the forums.

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