After yesterday's sharp sell-off stocks stabilized today and rallied to close near session highs. 2015 has been a 'spin your tires in the mud' affair. Would it be any more appropriate if tomorrow's jobs reports sparks a rally back to Monday's levels?
Bonds remain a volatile trade with $TLT dropping to its lowest level of the year before mounting a furious recovery rally. The 20 year bond etf now sits right at long term support. Tomorrow's jobs report is likely to push it one way or the other into the summer.
$YELP rocketed some 23% higher today as the buyout of the company that JB has been talking about, just like the OPEN buyout last year, is starting to come to fruition
Look at $YELP options presented without comment - they speak for themselves:
Todays Winners and Losers
Looking around you would think this market is in the midst of a large correction, yet a mere 2% move higher would lift the S&P 500 to new all time record levels. Now that is scary. a 3-5% pull back is 2008's 15% pull back.
The S&P 500 remains contained in a long term channel, not willing to break out in either direction, but with the trend remaining higher, up, positioned for gains.
The VIX, on the other hand, in spite of its 'elevated' close today, remains in a trend heading lower, down, declining, falling.
This week brought the VIX to topside resistance and I am looking for it to continue its melt lower.
I think tomorrows jobs report, will be of the "(insert creative label here)" . Not too many jobs and not too little... just right.... Goldilocks is what the media calls it. This will result in stocks rallying and the VIX getting smacked down.
As I said in my updates last week. Look for the small caps to lead the way out of this 'pullback'
Tomorrows Job Report
Consensus expectations are for a total non-farm payroll growth of 230,000, private sector job growth of 225,000, and manufacturing job growth of 5,000. The national unemployment is also expected to have dipped from 5.5 percent in March to 5.4 percent in April.
I am still a bull on this market. Until interest rates rise (if they ever do) cheap money will fuel continued corporate share buybacks and shrink the outstanding shares creating less supply on the face of ever present demand. Some day this happy historical bull market will fall on its face. I wish I knew when. Some are predicting 2016. Keep in mind these are the same people who predicted the stock market crash of 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, and 2010. Markets have cycles. Even in the amid massive central bank accommodation. It is prudent to keep an eye for signs of a pending trend reversal. And tonight I share an interesting tweet that could prove prescient if key support levels are broken in the short to medium term.
Have a good night ---- I leave you with this: