Wait... I meant the End is Near.
I should change the title of this post. The End is Near. My goodness. I can sense the fear.... from when someone says the End is near.
Of course if we were talking about the NY Giants 2021 season.. we would be rejoicing. Now that is a train wreck.
Writing an article titled the END is NEAR.. gets you a 10 year run as lead stock market commentator for Marketwatch.com.
Maybe the title should be... we've read this story before.
I'm going to be quick because, much like the END, the stock market open is NEAR, and I don't have a lot of time.
Cleary sentiment is changing. I can sense it. I can see it. I can read it.
The S&P500 is just a day away from a new record high, a price much higher than most could have ever imagined. If you followed many of the market bears over the last 10 years+ in 2021 we should be cooking our meals on a garbage strewn street over a rusted out steel drum by now.
Thankfully all those dire predictions have never come to pass.
And yet here we are again. Inflation is 'soaring' and everyone it seems is looking at a FED that will swiftly hike interest rates and crush asset prices.
Can the FED afford to have another 2007/2008?
Can we afford to -have another 2007/2008?
Has anyone learned anything the last 10+ years?
Interest rates will be very slow to rise. The FED will take its time. And by the time we get to the second possible rate hike, all these big headline 'inflation' numbers will be rolling over.
Because much of the price increases we see today are NOT from the FED . COVID has left a supply chain skidmark.
We are a free market economy after all right? Supply and demand?
The current state is more about less supply than it is more demand.
What happens when supply catches up and/or surpasses demand... as it eventually will?
Lower prices? No freaking way.
And yet it will come. And corporations will be slow to lower prices despite input costs coming down.
Which Equals MORE PROFITS.
Wait, so your telling me 2022 will see corporations make even more money?
But I thought inflation was going to kill this economy.
What happens when prices start to fall. What if that fall in prices is just as dramatic as the supply shock rise that we've seen?
Will the FED be in a hurry to hike rates in a DEFLATIONARY environment?
DEFLATION you say?
Sounds about as crazy as seeing stock prices rally during a recession.... like they did in 2020.
And that's something I was writing about in 2016.
I guess if that article titled - The END IS NEAR, someone would have read it. Oh well..