Tag Archives: goog

Trade Ideas For This Week – GOOG, AAPL, FCX, BA

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Earnings continue this week with some big retailers reporting earnings.  This should offer an opportunity to make a profitable trade.  GOOG hit new highs last week and looks ready to make an even bigger move, which way will it go this week?  AAPL continues to break higher after a 6 month downtrend, will it keep moving up or will the stock pull back?

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AAPL I think a move back to $500 is coming, and it could come as soon as this week.  A break of $500 would require an over 10% move from AAPL's close on Friday.

I will be looking for calls this week.  I like the $480 strike for $.48.  If we get a move to $500 these options will offer a tremendous return.  A move to ~$470 by mid-week will also see these options rise in value.

The Trade Idea:

AAPL $480 weekly calls for $.48

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GOOG has been on a strong run the last few weeks and sits right near the all time highs it hit last week.  I think it moves over $900 and to $1,000 before it gets a big pull back.  The stock has broken out of a 5 year channel.  A break below $820 negates the move to $1,000, and I will become bearish there.  I like the $915 calls for this week.

The trade idea:

GOOG $915 calls $1.00

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BA has been consistently heading higher and recently hit new highs.  An analyst last week raised the stock from a sell to a hold.  My question is, if I listened to you and sold the stock, how the heck am I supposed to hold it now if I don't have any shares left?  Like we saw with AAPL, the bottom is usually confirmed when the last analyst caves in and downgrades the stock.  With BA the stock has seen a bevy of upgrades and a host of positive comments.  We should see at least a short term pull back to the $90 area.  I like the $92.5 puts for a pull back last price $.39.  I would like to get them cheaper if I can.

The trade idea:

BA weekly $92.5 puts for $.30

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FCX has seen a magnificent move from its neck line test a few weeks ago at $27.50.  This rally is running out of steam and I like the risk reward on the weekly FCX $32.50 puts last trade $.48.

The trade idea:

FCX weekly $32.50 puts $.48

 

I will post other trade ideas later this week in the chat room, blog, and/or forum.

Have a great week,

UPB

 

New Option Millionaires Contest – Guess $GOOG Close

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NEW CONTEST Starts Monday April 8th, Entries Need to Be in by Sunday at 11:59PM EST

$GOOG recently broke through former long term support at just over $800 a share. The stock continued to slide late in the week and yesterday was trading under $780 before a late rally brought the stock up to the $783 close.

Next week should be a volatile week for the stock.

Guess what price $GOOG will close the week at on April 12th.

Reply in the comments section below with your price that $GOOG will close at.

goog4613

4-4-13 Watchlist

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The market pulled back yesterday as the ADP report missed expectations and folks took the opportunity to lock some profits. Unlike most of these pullbacks, there was limited dip buying until the very end of the day when the SPY jumped back over $155 and closed at $155.23. I guess we will have to wait longer for the SPY to close above the intraday high. This morning we have initial Jobless claims which came in worse then expected and is now at a 4 month high. Whether this is another reason to take profits or not will be seen. Futures dipped after the news and looks like the bright green open will be flat at minimum. Still think we are in a heads bulls win, tails bears lose environment for the next few months or until the unemployment goes under 7%.

Commodities continue to get punished with Gold and SLV buckling. Both should continue a downward spiral, which again raises the question ... where are folks to put their money to get a ROI?

Japan announced some extreme policies to, once again, try to kickstart their economy after years of deflation and slow/negative growth.

The US dollar is also stronger this morning.

 

FFIV broke to 92.50 yesterday and the 92.50 calls were a nice 3 bagger. CMG touched 330 then pulled back, still like her here. SODA broke under 50 and touch 48. Still have the 55 calls but they are not looking pretty.

 

Here are the morning analyst changes:

 

 

 

LULU lululemon checks show mild impact from luon issue, says William Blair

William Blair said its channel checks indicate a mild initial sales impact from lululemon's black luon quality shortfall. The firm believes management is taking swift action to address quality-control issues, and points out the company indicated last night that its Q1 earnings guidance is intact. William Blair continues to recommend purchase of lululemon shares on the recent pullback and keeps an Outperform rating on the name.

PNRA Goldman upgraded Panera based on strong unit growth trends, solid same-store-sales, increasing margins, and robust FCF deployment. Price target to $215 from $186.

DPZ Domino's Pizza downgraded to Buy from Conviction Buy at Goldman

Goldman removed Domino's from its Conviction Buy List due to share outperformance. Price target raised to $60 from $55.

SRPT Sarepta initiated with an Outperform at RW Baird

Target $63.

LULU lululemon downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital

RBC Capital downgraded lululemon due valuation and increased uncertainty following the departure of its Chief Product Officer. Price target lowered to $70 from $80.

PANL Universal Display upgraded to Buy from Hold at Needham

Needham upgraded Universal Display citing the recent pullback in shares and ramping revenue from Samsung with the launch of the Galaxy S4. The firm has a $35 price target for shares.

PPO Polypore upgraded to Buy from Hold at Topeka

Topeka upgraded Polypore citing valuation, lowered expectations, and expectations for a demand pick-up. Price target is $46.

MON Monsanto price target raised to $118-$120 from $104-$106 at Wells Fargo

Wells Fargo increased its target on Monsanto after the company reported higher than expected Q2 EPS. The firm notes that the company will look to use share buybacks to reduce the share count, and Wells keeps an Outperform rating on the shares.

SCHN Schnitzer Steel shares attractive at current levels, says DA Davidson

After Schnitzer reported slightly higher than expected Q2 EPS but lower than expected revenue, DA Davidson believes that Schnitzer's business could rebound quickly and the firm notes that the stock has reached multi-year lows. The firm keeps a Buy rating on the shares.

 

 

Will continue to hold my positions and may look to grab a few more today. Here are the strikes I am watching:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
ISRG CALL $515.00 Weekly 0.45 0.35
ISRG CALL $530.00 Apr 15, 2013 NA 0.60
PCLN CALL $715.00 Weekly 0.52 0.35

 

 

ISRG chart shows possible breakout to $510 coming, volume yesterday leads me to believe it happens very soon. PCLN looks ready as well, just needs to hold over $705 today.

 

I had some issues putting the wrong restrictions on the blog post yesterday. Going forward I will put the watch list in the forum as well.

 

Stay tuned to chat and twitter for more updates. Lets have a great day!

 

- JB

 

4-3-2013 Watch List

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Another day, another record close for the S&P, now just waiting on a close above the intra-day high of 1,576.09 set on Oct. 11, 2007. The QQQ closed at Sept highs as Tech are starting to catch up in the rally, although Apple closed fractionally higher after being removed from the Goldman Sachs conviction buy list. The ADP report is out this morning: March ADP Employment Report employment at 158,000 vs. consensus of 205,000. Futures faded a bi but are holding green for now.

 

I had a quick post on $SAM and $CMG yesterday:

$SAM : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/boston-beer-sam-continues-to-defy-gravity/

$CMG : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/chipotle-mexican-grill-inc-cmg/

 

Like both and still hold 170/180 SAM calls (Added some @ .60 yesterday) and like CMG for a breakout on lower corn prices and tight Bollinger Bands. CMG was upgraded today as well so should help. Still think we have some short term room on SPY before we see some consolidation.

As folks continue to chase equities, whether it be from other asset classes, or from abroad(europe), Bonds continue to get shellacked and here is a nice read on the first negative return on the Agg since 2006: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324883604578398740602137744.html?KEYWORDS=bonds

Not good for those looking for a ‘safe haven’ as the market climbs the ‘wall of worry’.

 

Here are some of the analyst changes today:

 

PNRA Panera Bread upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Raymond James Raymond James upgraded Panera citing reduced industry risks. 

PNRA Panera Bread shares should be bought now, says Oppenheimer

Oppenheimer expects Panera's shares to reach $200 by the end of the year as the firm expects Street estimates for the company to rise. The firm thinks the company can report higher than expected Q1 comps and beat margin expectations. It maintains an Outperform rating on the shares. t

DLTR Dollar Tree upgraded at Morgan Stanley As previously reported, Morgan Stanley upgraded Dollar Tree to Overweight from Equal Weight. The firm's survey indicates concerns regarding the payroll tax increase are overblown and that comps will sequentially improve throughout 2013. Price target is $57.

CMG Raymond James upgrades Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.  CMG from Underperform to Market Perform

FB Facebook recent weakness a buying opportunity, says JPMorgan

JPMorgan recommends buying shares of Facebook following the recent weakness and reiterates an Overweight rating on the name. The firm thinks concerns of competing social services taking user engagement share away from Facebook are overdone. JPMorgan believes Instagram, Twitter, and other services are having only a minimal impact on time spent on Facebook says it remains comfortable with its Q1 estimates.

BWLD)

Buffalo Wild Wings upgraded to Strong Buy from Market Perform at Raymond James

Raymond James upgraded Buffalo Wild Winds two notches to Strong Buy given improving visibility, normalizing wing prices and restaurant trends, and valuation. Price target is $100.

 

Added FFIV calls yesterday and still hold my SODA 55 calls. Added SAM and CMG calls and still hold NFLX 200 calls (those not doing well!)

 

CALL reported great earnings once again, they always do. Will watch for a possible trade. I still love NFLX and may try calls one more time. Will also look to add some FFIV 95 calls.

 

Here are the strikes I am looking at today:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
FFIV CALL $100.00 April 0.24 0.25
NFLX CALL $190.00 Weekly 0.33 0.33
CALL CALL $17.50 April 0.50 0.40

 

 

LETS Have a GREAT DAY!

 

- JB