It's a very simple question.... "Where is the stock market headed?" and the answer to that question is very simple. It's either going up or down.
I sarcastically commented on Twitter the other day that the $SPY was either going to trade over or under $207 after the Fed minutes were released. I was right on both accounts. It went over $207 and then closed the day under $207. I'm freaking brilliant. You can save the applause for later... or at least until I give my next ground breaking revelation.....
Here it is..... drum-roll please.....
No one knows where the market is headed. Up, down, from bottom left to top right, from top left to bottom right, sideways.... it's all a big blindfolded game of darts.
The shorter the time frame the farther away the dart board gets and the more difficult it is to predict the market.
Stocktwits is a great site to share your charts, ideas, and knowledge. They provide a sentiment indicator and as luck would have it today's bullish/bearish sentiment for the $SPY is exactly in the "I don't have a freaking clue" region:
That is why the trend is your friend. Since the lows in March 2009 every single dip has been bought.... every single one. The trend is pointing up and stocks continue to trade higher. So while I don't have a freaking clue as to exactly where the market will be in 6 months, I do know, based upon the current bull market trend, stocks are likely going to be higher in 6 months than they are today.
The great thing about this market, aside from the wonderful support from the Central Banks around the globe, is that there are so many who still don't believe this rally.
I've been saying it for years. I don't like it. I don't like the massive debt that's been piled on. Low interest rates distorts everything over the long term. Forcing investors into risky assets looks great now, but all those people piling into Junk bonds today are likely going to regret it down the road.....
Down the road.... isn't that what this is all about? We are such a now, today, society.
Whether you are a bull or a bear the trend for stocks remains higher its just a matter of whether the higher has a "much" or "modestly" in front of it.