3-7-2013 Watch List
After opening to a large Gap, the market faded, then held it’s ground into the close in an up and down session. GOOG continued its monster run at the open, only to turn red after the open. GDX and WLT were nice plays, and OPEN continued its break into multi-year highs.
Rate decisions for UK and ECB came out as expected, although folks were thinking UK may look to pump up their easing programs:
The Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.75%, 1.50% and 0.00% respectively, it announced
ADP numbers came out better then expected yesterday, and jobless claims fell more then expected this morning. As long as we stay in the 7%+ range of unemployment, this rally will continue to have legs... sounds strange right?
PETM reported earnings after hours that beat on EPS but missed on revenues. Any brick and mortar company that misses on revenue side hears rumblings of getting the “amazon’ virus. Stock is down pre-market with some Price target downgrades.
Here are some of the analyst changes of note today:
Google price target raised to $1000 from $870 at Atlantic Equities
Atlantic Equities believes Google's Enhanced Campaigns roll-out will materially increase mobile CPCs by making purchases easier and by increasing volume of mobile bids. The firm did not raise estimates but believes increased campaigns will act as a tailwind. Shares are Overweight rated.
VMware weakness a buying opportunity, says Cowen
Cowen believes the recent weakness in VMWare has mostly discounted the risk ahead if next week's Strategic Forum. The firm believe the company's Pivotal Initiative is strategically sound and is well positioned to drive demand for VMware's vSphere product. Shares are Outperform rated.
(SBUX)
Starbucks valuation very attractive, says Oppenheimer
After meeting with Starbucks' President, Americas, Oppenheimer believes the company has several potent comp drivers that are either in their early innings or upcoming. The firm thinks that the company's same-store sales are trending at least in-line with expectations, and it maintains an Outperform rating.
AIG likely to reinstate dividend, launch buyback by mid-year, says Bernstein
Bernstein believes that AIG will be able to reinstate its dividend and launch a $5B share buyback initiative by mid-year. The firm sees the company as a compelling turnaround story and maintains an Outperform rating on the stock.
TFM)
The Fresh Market weakness a buying opportunity, says Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley views the sell-off in The Fresh Market's as a buying opportunity. The firm expected the Q4 slowdown following industry data-points and believes comp confidence will return in 2H 2013. Shares are Overweight rated with a $66 price target, up from $49.
SCTY)
SolarCity downgraded to Hold from Buy at Needham
Needham downgraded SolarCity to reflect a lack of upside to its deployment target, which will prevent shares from moving higher.
(LNKD)
LinkedIn user engagement increasing, says BofA/Merrill
BofA/Merrill said early Q1 data indicates an increase in LinkedIn user engagement. The firm continues to believe LinkedIn will be able to leverage its large professional network and drive robust growth. The firm reiterates its Buy rating and raised its price target to $190
LeeMalone will be hosting a Webinar on Condors after hours today, 4:30pm est. Register here : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/condors-with-leemalone-thursday-march-7th-at-430-pm-est/
If your in the chatroom, you heard me speak about my positions yesterday. I have recently started buying more monthly calls, and it has caused my account to have quite a few positions, as the majority of my trades were typically weekly positions. This is one of the reasons the strikes I am watching at open is only 1-2 typically. May changed after next weeks expiration or if I really see something I like.
Still love CRM, OPEN, SHLD, SODA, SAM, BNNY, DNKN, BPT and others.
Here are the two positions i am looking for after the open (possibly)
Stock Ticker | Call/Put | Strike | Expiration | Closing Price | Entry Price |
NFLX | CALL | $190.00 | Weekly | 0.72 | 0.50 |
PCLN | CALL | $740.00 | Weekly | 0.58 | 0.50 |
I do have $OPEN 60 calls we sold some at 2.50 yesterday and will look for $64+ on open before selling rest.
Lets have a great day!
- JB
Condors with LeeMalone Thursday, March 7th at 4:30 pm est
LeeMalone will be doing another Webinar Thursday, March 7th at 4:30 pm est. This one will cover Condors and any other strategies (time permitting). The registration link is here: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/live-event-classes-jtv/ It will be recorded an uploaded into the forum by friday. Hope to see you there!
- JB
3-6-2013 Watch List
We witnessed history yesterday as the DOW broke all-time highs only 6 trading sessions after the big drop on the italian election, where everyone and his brother was calling for a pull-back. The story remains the same, Buy the fooooo&ing dip. Until there is a better place to put money, equities will continue to outperform.
Some nice moves yesterday on mostly everything. OPEN and SAM continued to move higher, SHLD broke out on more buys from Lampert, and GOOG continued it’s rampage, reminding me of the run from 600s to 760 last year.
With ADP numbers coming out this morning better then expected, futures are solidly in the green. I wouldn’t be suprised of some gap and trap sometime in the next few days as we are over the upper bollinger band on the SPY so be wary. But I do think we get under 10 on the vix sometime in the next few months, and will look at that area for the possible short term top.
Here are some of the analyst changes today:
IntercontinentalExchange upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette
Keefe Bruyette upgraded IntercontinentalExchange to reflect benefits from new swaps future products. Price target raised to $184 from $148.
(BBY)
Best Buy upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies
(WLT)
Walter Energy initiated with a Sector Perform at RBC Capital
Target $34.
TripAdvisor revenue poised to accelerate, says Deutsche Bank
After viewing a presentation by TripAdvisor's CFO, Deutsche Bank is increasingly confident that the company's revenue growth can re-accelerate in 2013 and 2014. The firm continues to view the company as one of the top names in online travel, and it reiterates a Buy rating
)
Baidu growth set to slow amid increased competition, says Citigroup
After Qihoo (QIHU) reported higher than expected Q4 revenue and presented data indicating that its share of the Chinese search market was well over 10%, Citigroup expects Baidu (BIDU) to undergo slowing revenue growth and margin contraction. The firm reiterates a Sell rating on Baidu.
Cree price target raised to $57 from $43 at Piper Jaffray
Piper raised its target on Cree after the company launched a LED bulb for under $10 and issued a positive preannouncement. The firm expects the new bulb to generate at least $194M-$272M in revenue for Cree, while supporting the company's gross margins. Piper maintains an Overweight rating on the shares.
Apple price target lowered to $530 from $575 at Barclays
Barclays lowered Apple estimates to reflect new products that are more back half loaded for the year and a more competitive 1H 2013. The firm lowered its FY13 EPS estimate to $43.75 vs. consensus of $44.81. Shares remain Overweight rated with a $530 price target.
WIll keep small for today as well. Still holding quite a few March positions like SAM, OPEN, SODA, BNNY, SHLD, BPT...ect.
Will look to get some more SODA calls on 50 test as well as grabbing some NFLX calls if it breaks over 185.
Here are the strikes:
Stock Ticker | Call/Put | Strike | Expiration | Closing Price | Entry Price |
NFLX | CALL | $200.00 | March | 0.33 | 0.30 |
SODA | CALL | $52.50 | March | 0.25 | 0.25 |
Lets have another great day!
- JB
MINI-ME! Mini Stock Options Coming March 18th, 2013 for AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, GLD, SPY
The equity stock option market continues to evolve. On March 18th, 2013 we get the introduction of "mini" stock options. That $20 $GOOG out of the money call will be available for just $2.00. That $50 in the money put, a mere $5. The trade off comes with the amount of shares each mini option contract represents. Instead of 100 shares a mini option will represent only 10.