This Sunday evening at 7:30 EST, before "The Week Ahead With UPB," Chris will be hosting a webinar for diamond members only on some key changes in the stock market since Bernanke began hinting of possible tapering in the coming months. With the FOMC news this Wednesday, you should definitely stop by. We will be recording this webinar and posting it in the forum, however, if you cannot come. To register, click here!
June 14th, 2013 Watch List
The SPY had the biggest rally in 5 months yesterday and finally bounced on some decent economic numbers, as well as folks starting to believe the Great Taper is an act we wont see until 2014. Here is the WSJ article folks are citing that helped propel the market at the end of the day : http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/06/13/fed-likely-to-push-back-on-market-expectations-of-rate-increase/?KEYWORDS=hilsenrat
The PPI number came out a bit higher then expected, the first sign of possible inflation i have seen in a few weeks. Gold and Silver spiked on the news and will see if Gold can hang below $1400. Of course there is a nice article on inflation in the WSJ this morning: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324049504578543732746191690.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection
Quick quote from the article as another data point showing deflationary concerns:
Quote:
The latest shifts in expectations are happening against a backdrop of sharp declines in measures of actual inflation. The Labor Department reported Thursday that prices paid for U.S. exports of consumer goods, excluding autos, fell 1.3% over the last year, the biggest drop since the agency started keeping track in 1983. Prices of goods imported into the U.S. also fell.
Time will tell if this inflation/deflation theme starts to take hold.
Here are some of the analyst changes
GME GameStop upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer |
Oppenheimer upgraded GameStop on expectations the upcoming launches of Xbox One and PS4 will drive sales and earnings growth. The firm raised its price target for shares to $50 from $27 |
CSTR Coinstar price target raised to $75 from $65 at Piper Jaffray |
Piper Jaffray raised its price target for Coinstar shares to $75 saying its sum of the parts analysis indicates the stock is undervalued. Piper sees the sale of Coinstar's Coin business as a potential path for the company and keeps an Overweight rating on the name |
BUD AB InBev coverage reinstated with an Overweight at JPMorgan
IBM IBM revenue can grow again in second half, says Citigroup |
Citigroup says that while the Street remains pessimistic, it believes IBM's revenue will begin to grow again in the second half of 2013. The firm reiterates a Buy rating on the stock with a $250 price targe |
SRPT Leerink remains cautious on accelerated approval for Sarepta |
Leerink continues to believe the FDA may be reluctant to approve Sarepta's eteplirsen on the Phase II data alone. The firm says Sarepta expects to meet with the FDA in Q3 and update investors thereafter. It thinks an announcement that an additional study is needed for approval could send the stock lower. Leerink reiterates a Market Perform rating on Sarepta |
AXP American Express downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays |
Barclays downgraded American Express due to valuation. Price target raised to $82 from $72 |
SCTY SolarCity upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse |
Credit Suisse upgraded SolarCity following discussion with the California Public Utilities Commission, or CPUC. The firm believes the CPUC has softened its stance and will continue to support distributed solar generation even if net metering caps are not raised by 2015, removing an overhang. Price target raised to $52 from $28 |
MAKO data validates knee, hip applications, says Piper Jaffray |
Piper Jaffray says clinical data presented this week validates the benefits of MAKO Surgical's knee and hip applications and implants. Piper reiterates an Overweight rating on the stock with a $23 price target |
CME Group upgraded to Buy from Neutral at ISI Group
VRTX Vertex CF data positive, says RBC Capital |
RBC Capital believes that data on Vertex's CF drug looked good and lowers the risk of the treatment. The firm expects the company to report good Phase III results for the drug in summer 2014, and it reiterates an Outperform rating on the stock |
WHR Whirlpool to benefit from Brazil stimulus, says BofA/Merrill |
The Brazilian government announced a new $8.7B stimulus package that includes appliances on Wednesday. BofA/Merrill expects cheap loans to support 2H 2013 sales and reiterates its Buy rating and $165 price target on Whirlpool |
CME had another upgrade this morning and looks set to break over $75. Still have my VMW calls , TSLA calls, along with quite a few other positions and also added NFLX / BIDU calls yesterday. Will keep it small and look for some lottos once i get a sense for the market direction after the open.
Here are the lottos I am looking at:
Stock Ticker | Call/Put | Strike | Expiration | Closing Price | Entry Price |
GOOG | CALL | $890.00 | Weekly | 0.40 | 0.40 |
BIDU | CALL | $102.00 | Weekly | 0.19 | 0.19 |
PCLN | CALL | $825.00 | Weekly | 0.95 | 0.45 |
Lets have a great day and see you Sunday at 10:30pm for the week ahead!
- JB
June 13th, 2013 Watchlist
Another volatile session as yesterdays green open was met with selling pressure the rest of the day, as the market closed right near the lows of the day and right above the 50dma of the SPY which is 161.51. The Nikkei shed another 6% overnight and is red 6 of the last 7 sessions. China also opened for the first time this week and was down over 2%. Retail sales numbers came in higher then expected this morning and jobless claims came in a bit better then expected but nothing major. Will be a very interesting day to watch. If we do not hold support levels, it is quite possible to break under $160 on the SPY, and thats when I think we can start seeing some true selling.
For now I still think we bounce at some point.
SAM was upgraded yesterday by GS to neutral and the stock ran nearly $10 yesterday, and is only a few dollars off the all-time high. Another great example of sticking to your guns, as most folks beat me up for SAM earnings, which really didnt change the core story.
PVH and MW reported ah’s and both beat, with PVH up over 7% pre-market. Not too many analysts changes today:
CELG Celgene should continue to be bought, says RW Baird |
Baird continues to be buyers of Celgene citing its new $3B share repurchase program and the publication of new trial data for apremilast's PALACE-1 efficacy. Shares are Outperform rated with a $130 price target |
PVH PVH Corp. guidance very conservative, says Brean Capital |
Brean Capital noted PVH Corp posted solid Q1 results but believes its guidance was very conservative. The firm expects the company to remap up its international opportunities in Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein which will drive a material top and bottom line upside. Shares are Buy rated with a price target of $129, raised from $127 |
TRLA Trulia initiated with an Underweight at Morgan Stanley |
Morgan Stanley initiated Trulia (TRLA) with an Underweight and sees fair value at $27. The firm believes Truila will need to increase marketing to keep up with Zillow (Z), the number 1 player in online real estate. $27 |
Piper sees another favorable earnings season for 3D printers |
Piper Jaffray says it left the RAPID 3D printing conference in Pittsburgh more upbeat on the 3D printing sector. Piper thinks demand for systems, materials, and services has tracked above plan in Q2 and expects another favorable earnings season for the industry. The firm has Overweight ratings on 3D Systems (DDD), Proto Labs (PRLB) and Stratasys (SSYS |
CMG Chipotle Q2 same-store-sales estimate raised to 4% from 3% at Wedbush |
Wedbush's Chipotle checks indicate Q2 same-store-sales are tracking slightly ahead of Street estimates of 3.8% driven by increased marketing, improved throughput, and new menu items. Checks also indicate catering is strong and is seeing increased traction and that a price increase in the 3-5% range is likely in 2H 2013 given increased commodity costs. The analyst raised estimates given strong comps and raised its price target to $420 from $400. Shares are Outperform rated |
If there is any possiblity of dejavu this week, then it would be a good idea to look for some lotto calls on GOOG, which I will be doing at some point today to go with my lotto 920/925/930s. Still love the TSLA story for another leg based on the upgrade yesterday as well as the continued high short interest numbers out after the bell Wednesday. Have the 105 calls and may look for more today. Higher auto sales numbers should help bid the stock today as well.
Here are the strikes I am looking at:
Stock Ticker | Call/Put | Strike | Expiration | Closing Price | Entry Price |
GOOG | CALL | $890.00 | Weekly | 0.70 | 0.45 |
TSLA | CALL | $104.00 | Weekly | 0.50 | 0.45 |
Lets have a great day!
- JB
June 12th, 2013 Watch List
What a roller coaster day yesterday, as the market followed Japan and Europe’s lead, only to rally near green then fall near the low of the day into the close. It always seems just when you think we are about to fall off a cliff we rally the next day, which seems to be the case today with futures up nicely.
Bonds/Treasuries continue to be the theme and could be a catalyst to drive stocks lower and will be something to continue to keep an eye on.
We have jobless claims tomorrow and then the hype over the FOMC next week will really pick up steam.
LULU really took a beating on the CEO departure news and goes to show how much folks can value a company based on leadership. ULTA reported some so-so earnings and seems to be having a relief rally as shares are up over 9% this morning. For the first time in recent memory, shares of SAM were upgraded by none other then Goldman Sachs. Spreads will be large on the call side so may pass on that for now.
Bought some VMW calls on a bottom bounce and sent the idea via text yesterday : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/text-trade-idea-update-for-june-11th/
VMW was reiterated as outperform by Oppenheimer this morning so maybe that adds more fuel to the rally. TSLA also was upgraded this morning and maybe on it’s way back over $100.
Analysts like Google’s acquisition of Maze and had some upgrades and reiterations this morning. Have some of the 920/925/930 calls so hoping for a nice move today.
Here are the analyst changes for today:
SAM Boston Beer upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman |
Goldman upgraded Boston Beer due to higher volume growth driven by Angry Orchard momentum. Price target raised to $162 from $141 |
BIIB Biogen downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup |
Citigroup downgraded Biogen citing valuation and concerns about Tecfidera’s outlook in Europe. Citi sees risks that the European Medicines Agency will not provide regulatory data protection for Tecfidera. The firm raised its price target for shares to $236 from $235 |
TSLA Tesla price target raised to $118 from $70 at RW Baird |
Baird said Tesla's Model S success gives it increased confidence it its ability to hit Gen III vehicle targets. The firm increased its out-year sales estimates given recent technology and business advancements. Shares are Outperform rated |
GOOG Google price target raised to $1000 from 900 at Needham |
Needham believes Google's acquisition of Waze, a crowd-sourced mobile navigation company, will further strengthen its position as the dominant mapping service provider and counter Facebook's and Apple's efforts. The firm believes the transaction value was over $1B and reflects the strategic importance of the company as well as its technology and data strength. Needham reiterates its Buy rating on Google and raised its price target to $1000 from $900 based on FY14 discounted cash-flow analysis |
P Pandora shares still attractive despite iTunes radio threat, says RBC Capital |
RBC Capital continues to recommend Pandora (P) after Apple (AAPL) announced its iTune Radio, as the firm believes that Pandora has very strong consumer traction and loyalty, while iTunes Radio doesn't seem significantly differentiated from Pandora. Moreover, the firm thinks that Apple's deals with record companies are similar to those of Pandora. RBC Capital reiterates a $24 price target and Outperform rating on Pandora |
UTLA Ulta Salon price target raised to $98 from $90 at RBC Capital |
RBC Capital increased its price target on Ulta Salon after the company reported stronger than expected results. The firm thinks the company can generate 25% EPS growth, but it reiterates a Sector Perform rating on the stock |
GOOG Google Waze acquisition positive, says RBC Capital |
RBC Capital expects Google to benefit from the integration of Waze's technology into Google Maps. The firm keeps an Outperform rating on Google |
JCP Wells 'surprised' by amount of J.C. Penney TV spending |
Wells Fargo said it has been surprised at the amount of TV advertising J.C. Penney has done, but it notes the spending will drive some incremental traffic and sales. Wells points out that J.C. Penney issued higher 2013 capex guidance last night in its regulatory filing. The firm raised its FY13 earnings estimate to ($4.80) from ($5.17) to reflect higher comp sales estimates but keeps an Underperform rating on the stock |
LM Legg Mason downgraded at Goldman |
As previously reported, Goldman downgraded Legg Mason to Sell from Neutral. The firm cites shares outperformance and a muted margin outlook for the downgrade. Price target lowered to $29 |
VMW VMware new products, share price attractive, says Oppenheimer |
Oppenheimer believes that VMware's Hybrid cloud service and Horizon mobile solutions are key to meeting the needs of modern businesses. The firm thinks the products will cause the company's growth to accelerate. Oppenheimer keeps an Outperform rating on the stock |
If you missed it, here is some nice commentary from UPB on AAPL, GOOG, and the SPY : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/where-are-we-headed-chart-updates-goog-aapl-spy/
Will be keeping it small once again and will be rooting for Silver and Gold to continue to fall. Like TSLA over $100 and the updated short interest , which shows a decrease of only 5 million shares and still 18 million left short. Also think the pullback on PCLN yesterday sets it up for all time highs later this week. May try for some strikes.
Stock Ticker | Call/Put | Strike | Expiration | Closing Price | Entry Price |
PCLN | CALL | $845.00 | Weekly | 0.65 | 0.50 |
TSLA | CALL | $104.00 | Weekly | 0.45 | 0.45 |
Lets have a great day!
- JB
Where are We Headed? – Chart Updates – $GOOG $AAPL $SPY
Equity markets around the globe sold off today after the Yen strengthened sending the Nikkei down dramatically after comments from Japanese officials scared investors. We witnessed the same thing last week only to endure a remarkable recovery into the end of the week. Was the recovery nothing but a sell-able bounce? Are stocks poised for a big decline heading into the summer?
Two Fridays ago a late day swoon brought the bears out of hibernation. The Hindenburg Omen! Dirigible debris filled the sky. The end was near, sell everything and head for the hills! The bull market is over..... yet stocks closed the week higher. Go figure.
We find ourselves this week in a similar position. The bears are out of their caves, the fear is palpable, stocks are vulnerable, yet I think we have a good chance to close the week higher than we started. I'm not sure there are many people saying the same thing.
Below are a few charts for $AAPL, $GOOG, and $SPY. These chart are my opinion only as are where I think the market and these stocks are headed.
Based upon the last 9 months of trade for $GOOG I think 3 scenarios are possible but feel the most likely scenario is a move over $900. Late last week I told the chat room that I thought $GOOG was starting to curl after a long consolidation. That curl upward should lead to new all time highs. I don't think it happens this week but it will happen within the next few.
$AAPL remains well positioned for a move to $500, its just a matter of when. A few months ago I said the same thing about $BIDU with the stock at $84 a share, saying $100+ was coming. It took a little longer than I thought it would, but it came just the same. $AAPL the only question, in my mind, is when this move will occur. The bottom for the year was hit in April. I think this will hold. Right now we are looking at a very nice inverted head and shoulders and this will resolve 20% to the upside.
$SPY in my view has also bottomed for the time being. We are looking at a possible inverted head and shoulders. This should resolve with higher prices. I think $166+ on the $SPY could be hit this week going exactly against what everyone else thinks will happen and putting the few remaining bears out to bed again. Good night.
Finally, if someone put a gun to my head and asked where these stocks will close the week, I would calmly answer: $SPY $165.20, $GOOG 905, and $AAPL $450.