Morning Reads

Reads

New tensions: Carney says U.S. ties are now weaknesses after Lutnick slams Canada's trade strategy.

Iran war: Seized ships and bombing threats, with talks in jeopardy and a new possible pipeline.

Wider adoption? Stablecoins raise regulatory evasion and dollarization risks, according to the Bank for International Settlements.

The refund race

Billions of dollars are expected to be refunded to American importers after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump's IEEPA tariffs in February, but the refunds won't be automatic. Businesses will need to apply through a new system set to launch today called CAPE, or the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries. Around 330K importers across the nation are likely to be eligible, along with their 53M in shipments that came in between early 2025 and February 2026.

Administrative process: Claims will be submitted by importers or authorized brokers through U.S. Customs and Border Protection's ACE Portal, with an estimated $166-$175B in past tariffs eligible for repayment. Phase 1 of the new system focuses on simpler cases, like recent imports and straightforward claims, with more complex cases coming later, such as older or disputed entries. The whole process will take time to sort out, but Customs and Border Protection has promised to get refunds out via electronic transfers in 60 to 90 days.

The trade fight still continues, with the Trump administration seeking to get IEEPA tariffs reinstated under a different designation. Use of Section 122 and 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, as well as Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, is being sought to increase leverage in trade negotiations. Last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that by the beginning of July, tariffs may be restored to the levels in place before the Supreme Court invalidated many of the levies.

What about the consumer? While many businesses absorbed the cost of the tariffs, others passed them on to customers, who have no method to get refunded. However, some lawsuits have been filed, like recent proposed class actions against Costco (COST) and FedEx (FDX), arguing that the firms stand to benefit from a federal government refund system that should ultimately be returned to consumers. The companies have taken differing approaches in their response, with FedEx saying it would give its tariff refunds to customers, while Costco intends to return the value to members through lower prices and better value in the future. Take the WSB survey.

Here's the latest Seeking Alpha analysis

Microsoft: Don't Buy The Dip, A 30% Correction Is Still Ahead

Credo Stock: I Called The Surge, Here's Why I'm Buying Every Dip

Sell Before May And Go Away: Why Another Big Market Drawdown Is Likely In 2026

Nvidia And AMD: Trim Your Hare, Buy A Tortoise

I Am Buying The Rumor With A Golden Opportunity, Yields +11.5%

What else is happening...

Energy secretary says $3 gasoline may not return until 2027.

UAE seeks U.S. financial safeguards as Iran war strains economy.

Greg Abel puts his stamp on Berkshire (BRK.B) as Buffett era fades.

Blue Origin's (BORGN) rocket reuses booster but misses target orbit.

Farmers say repair bills still a burden despite Deere (DE) settlement.

Mamdani backs new tax on NYC second homes as levy on wealthy.

QXO (QXO) to acquire insulation firm TopBuild (BLDin $17B deal.

American Airlines (AALdenies merger talks with United (UAL).

Polymarket (POLYMARKET) in talks to raise cash at $15B valuation.

Google (GOOGL) eyes new AI chip partnership with Marvell (MRVL).

Private credit seeks billions in credit card debt incurred by consumers.

Today's Markets

In Asia, Japan +0.6%. Hong Kong +0.8%. China +0.8%. India flat.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.6%. Paris -1.1%. Frankfurt -1.3%.
Futures at 6:30, Dow -0.5%. S&P -0.4%. Nasdaq -0.4%. Crude +5.4% to $87.03. Gold -1.2% to $4,820.10. Bitcoin -0.4% to $75,121.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +1 bp to 4.27%.

On The Calendar

Companies reporting today include AGNC Investment (AGNC) and Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF).

Known to most as Uranium Pinto Beans, Jason has more than 15 years under his belt of trading stocks, options and currencies. His expertise primarily lies in chart analysis, and he has a strong eye for undervalued stock. Because he’s got the ability to identify great risk/reward trades he usually enjoys taking the path less traveled and reaping the benefits from the adventure.

He is a co-founder of Option Millionaires, and he is best known for his weekly webinars with Scott, as well as his high level training webinars and charts found in the forums.

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