- Argentines Plunge Into Debt for Bills, Cars and Birthday Parties
- JD Vance’s Hungary Trip Deserves Bipartisan Rebukes
- As Trump Bullies NATO, Europeans Question Its Deferential Chief
- Oil Prices Plunge and Stocks Surge After Cease-Fire Deal
- Trump’s Ceasefire Still Leaves the US and Iran Mired in Quandary
- Trump’s Iran War Leaves the US Looking Weakened to Adversaries
- Our Vacations. Our Food. Our Mortgages. The Iran War Will Change Our Lives.
- Delta Expects Strong Profit Despite Higher Fuel Costs
- Investors Still Have Questions About the Cease-Fire
- Why You Can’t ‘Flick a Switch’ to Get Oil and Gas Flowing Out of the Persian Gulf
- Russia Boosts Oil Income to Highest Since Early in Ukraine War
- Exxon Sees 6% of Its Worldwide Output Shut on Mideast Conflict
- How China Built Its Vast Natural Gas Stockpile
- The Iran War Is Hitting California Harder Than Any Other State
- The US Economy Is Replaying the 2000s, Not the 1970s
- Wall Street Watchdogs Pull Back Amid Trump’s Deregulatory Push
- As It Becomes Wholesale, Banking Is More Essential Than Ever
- White House Economists Say Stablecoin Rewards Won’t Harm Banks
- My Quest to Solve Bitcoin’s Great Mystery
- ‘Definitely a Sham’: As Tariffs Climb, Trade Fraud and Accounting Tricks Proliferate
- Blue Owl Fund Outlook Cut to Negative by Moody’s on Outflows
- Growth-Focused States Move To Rein In Property Taxes
- Altman Is His Own Risk Factor in OpenAI’s Mega-IPO
- The SpaceX IPO Is Elon Musk’s Most Audacious Product Launch Yet
- Tesla’s $44 Billion Swing Is More Than Just a Miss
- US Charging Networks Race to Keep Up as Gas Prices Boost EVs
- Ex-Rio Tinto Boss to List Seabed Mining Firm in $1 Billion Deal
- Hormone Drugs Make $6.3 Billion Comeback After FDA Nixes Safety Warnings
- Social Media Companies Are Looking for a New Name
- How European Winemakers, Importers Absorbed Trump’s Tariff Punch
- Why McCormick’s $65 Billion Deal Might Actually Work Out
- The Economic Divide Behind That McDonald’s CEO Viral Video
- The Sports Broadcasting Act Is Still a Home Run for Consumers
Chip fab: Intel (INTC) joins the Terafab project with SpaceX (SPACE) and Tesla (TSLA) to build chips to power AI and robotics.
No respite: The U.S. rejects Ford's (F) request seeking aluminum tariff relief after the Novelis fire caused supply bottlenecks.
Fire incident: A massive fire engulfs Kimberly-Clark's (KMB) 1.2M square foot paper goods warehouse in Southern California.
Pursuing peace
The U.S. announced a two-week ceasefire, suspending its attacks on Iran in exchange for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The news sent U.S. stock index up about 3%, while Asian and European equities also rose. Oil prices (CL1:COM) (CO1:COM) plunged below $100/bbl as fears of prolonged supply disruption eased.
Major breakthrough: "I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks," President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social, saying the ceasefire is subject to Iran agreeing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. "We received a 10-point proposal from Iran and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate." Iran's 10-point plan includes demands for its continued control of the Strait of Hormuz, lifting of all sanctions, acceptance of its nuclear program and withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region. Pakistan, the main intermediary in the negotiations, invited the U.S. and Iran to Islamabad for further talks this Friday. To note, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the ceasefire included Lebanon, although Israel said it did not.
Reopening Hormuz: Iran and Oman are reportedly planning to charge fees from ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during the ceasefire. Iran will use the fees it collects for reconstruction efforts, while Oman's plans for the funds remain unclear, Iran's semi-official Tasnim News Agency reported. "For two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran's Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations," Iran's Araghchi said. Meanwhile, Trump said the U.S. will help with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz. "Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process. We'll be loading up with supplies of all kinds, and just 'hangin' around' in order to make sure that everything goes well," he posted on Truth Social.
Supply outlook: While oil prices eased significantly, analysts say it will take time for supplies to normalize. "Further price direction will hinge on whether talks translate into a durable agreement and a sustained normalization of flows through the strait, with volatility likely to persist during negotiations later this week," said ING Economic and Financial Analysis. According to Kpler data, 172 Mbbl of crude and products are still on the water in the Gulf, spread across nearly 187 laden tankers. "While the ceasefire creates a window for transit, flows remain conditional and operationally constrained," Kpler said. Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association, warned that jet fuel costs may stay elevated as "it will still take months to get back to where supply needs to be."
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What else is happening...
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DOD eyes funding boost for Lockheed's (LMT) AIM-260 program.
Chicago Fed's Goolsbee warns of successive inflationary shocks.
China buys the most gold in a year as Iran war pressures prices.
Ethereum (ETH-USD) stablecoin supply hits record high of $180B.
Greece to ban social media for children under 15 from next year.
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan +5.4%. Hong Kong +3.1%. China +2.7%. India +4%.
In Europe, at midday, London +2.9%. Paris +4.6%. Frankfurt +4.8%.
Futures at 6:30, Dow +2.5%. S&P +2.7%. Nasdaq +3.5%. Crude -16% to $94.88. Gold +2.6% to $4,808.60. Bitcoin +4.4% to $71,536.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -5 bps to 4.25%.