- World Races to Protect Oil Flows After Iran War Hits Exports
- Tankers Shun Fujairah, Freeing Up Oil for Sale at Higher Prices
- IEA Proposes Massive Release of Emergency Oil Stockpiles
- LNG Suppliers Declare Force Majeure on Contracts From Qatar
- Justice Department Probes Iran’s Use of Binance to Evade Sanctions
- The Impotence of Drill, Baby, Drill
- How Trump and His Advisers Miscalculated Iran’s Response to War
- Iran’s Cheap, Plentiful Weaponry Puts US Military Under Unprecedented Strain
- Romania Set to Allow US to Use Black Sea Base for Iran Missions
- Europe’s New Energy Crisis Will Mean a Bull Market in Renewables
- Oil Prices Are Leaving Airlines With Nowhere to Hide
- The Railroad Safety Act Makes Railroads Less Safe
- A Compromised Fed Would Risk a Fiscal Crisis
- JPMorgan Restricts Private Credit Lending After Loan Markdowns
- Pimco Sees Crisis of ‘Bad Underwriting’ in Private Credit
- Boaz Weinstein Is ‘Buying Pessimism’ With Discount Bids on Private Assets
- Apollo Plans to Value Private Credit Daily in Answer to Critics
- Helping Americans Save Shouldn’t Be So Complicated
- If You Think Housing’s Expensive Now, Let Government Make It ‘Cheap’
- Help Airbnb To Make American Housing Great Again
- Donald Trump’s FTC and California Have It Wrong About Unions
- A Trump-Xi Summit Nears, but China Doesn’t Know What Trump Wants
- Iran War Poses Double Edged Risks for China’s Reflation Efforts
- China Moves to Curb OpenClaw AI Use at Banks, State Agencies
- Hong Kong Authorities Raid Chinese Brokers Citic, Guotai
- The Tycoon Who Had a Secret Life as an Alleged Scam Kingpin
- Monte Paschi Reaches Deal on Terms of Mediobanca Merger
- Amazon’s Mega Bond Sale Is Cheap — For a Reason
- Microsoft Takes a Stand Against the Trump Administration
- Why Tech Is Obsessed With Moltbook, a Social Network for Bots
- Oracle Rallies as Strong Revenue Forecast Eases Concerns Over Massive AI Bets
- Campbell’s Cuts Outlook as Snack Sales Fall
- Cintas Agrees to Buy Uniform Maker UniFirst in $5.5 Billion Deal
Bumpy ride: Oil volatility continues as the IEA eyes its largest release of oil reserves, while this U.S. official's deleted tweet fuels uncertainty.
AI boom: Oracle (ORCL) shares are soaring after the IT giant posted stellar results and raised its 2027 outlook on the back of AI strength.
Partner support: Microsoft (MSFT) backed Anthropic (ANTHRO) in its legal fight over the Pentagon's blacklisting of the AI startup.
Price check
Inflation will take center stage on Wall Street today, as the Consumer Price Index report for February will be released this morning. While oil's rally because of the Iran war has been dominating headlines, it's not expected to show a significant impact on February's inflation print.
What to expect: Economists on average expect February CPI to increase 0.3% over the prior month, compared to January's 0.2% rise. On a year-over-year basis, CPI is seen advancing 2.4% — matching January's rate. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 0.2% M/M and 2.5% Y/Y. "Underlying inflation pressures revealed by today's data should be benign," said UBS' Paul Donovan. "The near 27% increase in gasoline prices from January lows will not register in today's data, but consumers will notice soaring prices for selected grocery items." February's CPI data "could point to lingering upward pressure from tariffs on goods prices," ING economists said.
Spring pickup: Prediction markets show that participants are largely aligned with economist projections for February CPI, with bets favoring 2.4% Y/Y and 0.3% M/M. But bets for March signal expectations of CPI picking up pace to 2.8% Y/Y, as a result of oil's rally driven by the U.S.-Israel-Iran war. CPI readings will likely see upward pressure this spring due to the Gulf oil shock, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics. It forecast core CPI peaking in July, after which it may trend lower and eventually fall below the Federal Reserve's 2% target in 2027. Goldman Sachs analysts warned that if oil prices stay elevated for three months, headline CPI could rise from 2.4% Y/Y in January to 3% Y/Y in May.
SA commentary: Markets may not react much to the CPI report, according to Investing Group Leader Chris Lau, as traders will be focused on continued tensions in Iran and shipment delays through the Strait of Hormuz. SA analyst Damir Tokic echoed this view, but warned that the current geopolitical situation will likely create more frequent spikes in commodity and food prices, and supply chain bottlenecks. "Thus, investors are underpricing long-term inflation by assuming a well-anchored inflation consistent with the Fed's 2% target," he added. Fill Up Your Car, Things Could Get Worse
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Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan +1.4%. Hong Kong -0.2%. China +0.3%. India -1.7%.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.8%. Paris -0.7%. Frankfurt -1%.
Futures at 6:30, Dow -0.1%. S&P flat. Nasdaq flat. Crude +4.1% to $86.87. Gold -0.8% to $5,201.30. Bitcoin -1.9% to $69,527.
Ten-year Treasury Yield unchanged at 4.17%.