Morning Reads
- China and Japan, With Trump in the Middle, Stoke an Existential Showdown
- Norway’s Lesson for Europe on Wealth Taxes: Let Some Millionaires Go
- Is Trump Right About the US Getting $21 Trillion in Investment?
- Trump’s $21 Trillion Investment Boom Is Actually Short Trillions
- $10 Billion and Counting: Trump Administration Snaps Up Stakes in Private Firms
- Fed Chair Powell’s Allies Provide Opening for December Rate Cut
- Fed’s Daly Backs December Rate Cut, Citing Vulnerable Labor Market
- The Fed’s Tool for Calming Short-Term Funding Markets Is Being Tested
- What I Learned Teaching Economics and Government Full Time
- Kalshi Is Taking Aim at Stock Exchanges. Why Not?
- Wall Street’s Macro Traders Eye Their Biggest Haul in 16 Years
- If You’re Desperate, You Likely Don’t Have Much Debt
- Pulte’s Move to Fix Credit Scores Is Bad News for Homebuyers
- Justice Department to Settle Lawsuit Over Apartment Rental Pricing
- Your Turkey Is Cheaper This Thanksgiving. That’s About It.
- Trump’s Beef Price Battle Meets America’s Insatiable Demand
- Republicans Need to Get Serious About Health Care
- Park Service Union Movement Spreads to Grand Canyon, Joshua Tree
- Petrobras CEO Scores Big Win, But Hasn’t Dodged ‘Electric Chair’
- China’s Top Companies Focus on AI Agents as Next Battleground
- AI Promised Magic, Then Wall Street Did the Math
- Alphabet’s AI Chips, Gemini Model Position It to Rival Nvidia
- How AI Can Help Reduce Wildfire Risks
- What Is Agentic A.I., and Would You Trust It to Book a Flight?
- Boeing Tackles Quality With a ‘War on Defects’
- NASA and Boeing Scale Back Starliner Missions After Fumbled Astronaut Flight
- Crime Rings Enlist Hackers to Hijack Trucks
- VW Touts Up to 50% Reduction in Chinese EV Development Costs
- Would You Like a New Car With That $8 USB Cable? Amazon Hopes So
- This Sneaker Brand Keeps Raising Prices—and Consumers Don’t Seem to Care
- France to Spend $150 Million Uprooting Vines as Wine Demand Dips
- Tariffs and Strike Drive ‘Once-in-a-Lifetime’ Boost for Canadian Wine
- Faux Jewels and Slimming Belts: Why Shopping on TikTok Is a Lot Like QVC
PREPPER
The AI trade: The Nasdaq closed up more than 2% to kick off the holiday-shortened week. There's talk of Google's (GOOGL) AI chips, known as tensor processing units.
China alert: Xi Jinping warns on Taiwan amid a spat with Japan. He also held a phone call with President Trump about the situation.
SA Sentiment Survey: Check out the latest results for November. If you haven't participated yet, take the poll here.
Spending outlook
Sticky inflation, rising healthcare premiums, and affordability concerns aren't deterring Americans from going shopping this year. In fact, they might be encouraging them to do so, with everyone trying to spot a good deal in the current environment. An estimated 187M people across the country are planning to shop in-store and online from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, according to the National Retail Federation, which is 3M more people than the record high notched last year.
Snapshot: Black Friday continues to be the most popular day to shop, with around 70% (131M people) planning to take advantage of deals. Those numbers highlight the resilience of the American consumer, which continues to bolster the U.S. economy. Earlier this month, the NRF forecast that total holiday spending during November and December was expected to surpass $1T for the first time, with sales predicted to grow between 3.7% and 4.2% over 2024.
"The holidays are an important part of many consumers' budgets, and that trend is especially true this season," said Katherine Cullen, NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights.
Stock returns: The investing side of retail has been dismal at the sector level. The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Index (SP500-25) and S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index (SP500-30) have both flatlined this year, lagging the broader S&P 500 Index due to macro factors and strained household budgets, as well as a larger investor focus on high-growth sectors like AI. Standout retail performers have included discount stores like Dollar General (DG) and Dollar Tree (DLTR), up 34% YTD, as well as retail favorites Coca-Cola (KO) and Walmart (WMT), which are both ahead by 16% YTD. On the discretionary side, the biggest gainers have been Tapestry (TPR), Ralph Lauren (RL), Wynn Resorts (WYNN) and Hasbro (HAS), all posting outsized YTD gains of between 40% to 60%.
Here's the latest Seeking Alpha analysis
The Most Viable 10% Yielding Retirement Portfolio I've Ever Designed
Nvidia: Now The 2nd Cheapest Stock In The Mag 7
Buy CMBT: Shipping Poised To Outperform Into 2026
The Quiet Forces Driving This Correction
Is This AI Trend Still Our Friend? Stocks To Hedge Against Inflation And Market Risk
What else is happening...
Delayed data: Initial GDP estimate will come before Christmas.
Spotify (SPOT) to raise U.S. subscription prices in Q1 2026.
SF Fed study sees tariffs lowering inflation, but later boosting it.
Defense stocks slide on signs of Ukraine-Russia peace progress.
Binance sued for allegedly facilitating Hamas crypto transfers.
Kohl's (KSS) confirms Michael Bender as its permanent CEO.
Las Vegas Grand Prix provides a lift to casinos, online betting.
Boeing (BA) Starliner missions scaled back after failed test flight.
Apple (AAPL) cuts sales headcount to streamline processes.
New "framework" and the extension of Obamacare subsidies?
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan +0.1%. Hong Kong +0.7%. China +0.9%. India -0.4%.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.2%. Paris +0.1%. Frankfurt -0.1%.
Futures at 6:30, Dow -0.2%. S&P -0.2%. Nasdaq -0.3%. Crude -0.3% to $58.64. Gold +0.8% to $4,127.60. Bitcoin +1.5% to $87,393.
Ten-year Treasury Yield unchanged at 4.03%.
On The Calendar
Companies reporting today include Alibaba (BABA) and NIO (NIO).