Ok... its Friday.... FINALLY!
I will be so happy when this day is over. This week. Its been one of the most frustrating weeks in a while for me. Why> Well the market remains rangebound. Downside, like this mornings 1% pre-mkt fall, gets bought, as we now sit even heading into the open.
Upside get sold as we did at the open yesterday after hitting post Virus highs.
Consolidation? And its all coming right at long term resistance. The market has rolled over the two previous tests. I was thinking it would likely breakout.. and then it broke down... but then came back up to resistance...and then broke out.. and then came back to support... and then broke down... and now its right back at support/resistance... man... frustrating to watch.
Here is the 5 day chart for SPY:
This morning SPY
and the longer term
From my perspective... this market is still feeding on fear and worry. China tensions are growing by the day.
I call these tensions a Camel... and each day another straw gets put on the camels back... so far that Camel barely feels the weight of it. At some point I do think all this smoke getting blown from the US and China will lead to fire. And who knows.. maybe it will just lead to a strong rally for Small caps here in the U.S. and more consolidation of the multi-nationals.... if we even get that fire.
We have China ADRs supposedly at risk of being de-listed and yet many this week have traded to new all time highs. How does that make any sense amid all the tension and drama? The only way it makes sense is if all this non-sense is nothing more than smoke.... and there is no fire.. there never is going to be a fire.
When I look at the price of something and say why isn't it higher.. or why isnt it lower... at the end of the day the PRICE is Right. And it's been right since the lows in 2009.
So yeah... look at this week.... we ramped on Monday and have been grinding at support/resistance the rest of the week.
The action has more of that drowning beachball feel to it. Every dip is like trying to drown a beach ball. The first dip Tuesday got bought like crazy.. and this mornings dip is some $4+ into the recovery.
I think that speaks more to where this market is headed over the short to medium term. Higher. At the lows I said $270 $290 and then $310 for the SPY. I think we will hit that $310. I think the Nasdaq hits new all time record highs....
and then we come to grips to a new reality as the country and the world come out of their caves.
Right now the market sees peaches and roses. And thats what we may have... but I think... and I said this many moons ago... that we are nearing that Time To Sell. This remains, in my view, the hope rally. And with trillions the new billions... it makes sense the market is going to rally. I see the same disbelief I saw in 2009, 2010, 2011 and so on.
The price was right back then as well.
I think its right here.... for now....