Markets soared on Wednesday with the S&P adding nearly 3% and having its best day in nearly 2 years. Asia markets closed mixed overnight while Europe stocks are in the green this morning. U.S. futures are pointing to a lower open, the Dollar, Gold, and Oil are higher while Yields are lower.
And this is what UPB is reading this morning: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/morning-reads-16/
It was a wild day for stocks on Wednesday as the Fed announced its first .50 rate hike in 22 years. The SPY sold off after the statement hitting lows as Powell's press conference started around 2:30, only to reverse course and embark on a +$16 reversal and close at the highs of the day. Some of the rally can be attributed to the comments by Powell that a .75 hike at next meeting is off the table. The rest can probably be attributed to comments that the Fed will start paring back their balance sheet in June, later than what was expected. Either way, Yields dropped the most since Feb and equities soared. This morning it looks like the market will give back some of those gains at the open. I would like to see that $429 resistance broken into the weekend. If not I fear we may have more wide chop in this $415-$430 level on the SPY over the next week or so. Today and tomorrow will go a long way in seeing if yesterdays rally was the start of something or just a relief bounce before the next leg down:
I added some speculative TRIP calls near the end of the day for earnings after the close. The company posted a decent quarter and also announced a new CEO, who came from TTD and was an Executive Vice-President. Think that news almost trumps the earnings and bodes well going forward... finally someone who will fix their monetization issue. May look to add some later dated strikes at the open for the eventual move into the $30s though my weekly strikes will need some help at the open:
ZYME reversed late day losses to nearly close green. This morning Guggenheim upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral and gave it a $14 PT. Should help bring in more buyers today:
OLED reports after the close today. I was looking for calls yesterday but couldn't find any decent risk/reward strikes and then the stock took off with the market in the late afternoon. May look at some speculative $160 or so calls today:
ICPT announced a deal this morning with a Pharma company acquiring their the rights for Ocaliva sales outside the U.S. It is a huge deal... $405 million upfront and another $45 million later. Considering ICPT had a $486 million market cap at the close today, this pretty much makes them trade at less than cash... ie. they will have more cash on hand than their valuation. The stock is spiking in the pre-market and option premiums will be high at the open, but may look to nibble some $25 or even $30 later dated strikes if I can find a decent risk/reward:
TWLO reported a decent Q after the close yesterday... almost a relief Q. Think it will find a bid today and break into the $130s. May look at adding some lotto calls today:
Also watching TNDM, SITE, CDLX, and ROKU today.
Would not be surprised to see profit taking today so certainly not going to be overly aggressive either way.
Here are the analyst changes of note for today:
| Ligand price target lowered to $160 from $215 at Craig-Hallum |
| Craig-Hallum analyst Matt Hewitt lowered the firm's price target on Ligand to $160 from $215 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Similar to last quarter, the analyst's focus coming out of Ligand's Q1 earnings report - which was better-than-expected - is the company's plan to spin off its OmniAb business as he sees this as the biggest potential catalyst for the stock |
| Shopify Q1 results 'worse than feared,' says Jefferies |
| Jefferies analyst Samad Samana said investors were braced for a shortfall at Shopify, particularly after weakness at other e-commerce companies, but the Q1 results "still fell short of the lowered bar." GMV missed consensus of $46.1B, while "profitability missed across the board," said Samana. The company reiterated most of its qualitative 2022 outlook, but management now expects 2022 merchant adds to be consistent with, instead of exceed, those of 2021, Samana also noted. Shopify also confirmed recent reports that it will acquire fulfillment technology provider Deliverr for $2.1B to bolster its own efforts for SFN, noted Samana, whose initial takeaways are that Deliverr accelerates SFN's path to serve merchants at scale and reflects that the company "is more committed than ever to making SFN successful." The analyst, who expects to learn more on the company's earnings call, has a Buy rating and $1,350 price target on Shopify shares |
| DigitalOcean price target lowered to $80 from $96 at Oppenheimer |
| Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan lowered the firm's price target on DigitalOcean to $80 from $96 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The analyst notes the company reported Q1 revenue of $127.3M, a tick above estimate. Net dollar retention was stable sequentially at 117%, ARPU was up a steady 28% year-over-year, and spending customer revenue rose 20%. Negatively, operating margins were 180 bps below his estimate and guide, despite much higher gross margins. This line should remain weak for another quarter but ramp aggressively in the second half of 2022 and next year, Horan adds |
| Uber price target lowered to $40 from $45 at Oppenheimer |
| Oppenheimer analyst Jason Helfstein lowered the firm's price target on Uber to $40 from $45 but keeps an Outperform rating on the shares as it continues to make progress toward real profitability, with Q2 GB/EBITDA guided 2%/3% above Street. Uber's full suite of products provides the opportunity to capture greater wallet share/cross-selling opportunities and creates a competitive advantage for driver acquisition, with drivers earning more versus competition, the analyst argues. While management did not provide full year 2022 guidance, it reiterated +10%/+5% incremental Mobility/consolidated margins, he adds |
| GoDaddy price target raised to $106 from $102 at Benchmark |
| Benchmark analyst Mark Zgutowicz raised the firm's price target on GoDaddy to $106 from $102 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company reported better-than-expected Q1 revenue growth and year-over-year GMV growth of 20% that he said "represents meaningful progress." He has a positive takeaway from GoDaddy's earnings and outlook and continues to view the company as uniquely positioned to capture sustained incremental share of micro and SMB-oriented commerce GMV, Zgutowicz tells investors |
Editas Medicine price target lowered to $28 from $55 at Oppenheimer |
| Oppenheimer analyst Jay Olson lowered the firm's price target on Editas Medicine to $28 from $55 as he awaits clarity on EDIT-101's path forward, with important factors such as proper registrational endpoints and ideal patient populations still uncertain at this point. The analyst keeps an Outperform rating on the shares |
And here is what I am watching today: OLED, TRIP, ROKU, TWLO, TNDM, SITE, CDLX, REGN, ICPT, EDIT, ZYME, SAM, ALGN, IBM, SPOT, DDOG, MDB, TEAM, RNG, and ZS.
Let's have a great day!
-JB