May 3rd, 2022 Watch List

Markets closed in the green to start the week, with the S&P adding .57% while the Nasdaq soared 1.6%. Asia markets closed mixed overnight while Europe stocks are mostly higher this morning. The US dollar, Oil, and Gold are all lower while Yields are higher.

And this is what UPB is reading this morning:

It was another rocky day for markets, with stocks selling off all day until the magical hand came in at 2:45 to provide the stick save. Just like last Monday, anyone in puts saw their premiums get destroyed. After last Monday's reversal, stocks melted lower for the entire session the next day. Hoping that is not what we get today, but would not be surprised. I am still hopeful stocks can find a bid and a bit of stability this week, and a lot of that will have to do with the Feds decision, statement, and press conference tomorrow. There were some signs that maybe growth is finding a floor, with many of the names holding up during yesterday mornings sell-off. Would bode well if there is come continuation again today in names like ROKU, TWLO, ZS, TEAM, ect.. The SPY came down and tested levels not seen since the summer of last year. That $405 area looks like strong support for now on weakness:

SAM found bids all day, testing $395 before closing at $391 and up over 4%. I took the opportunity to close the last of my calls for over 500%. It is up nearly $75 since I bought the calls and think maybe some consolidation will come before the break into the $400s. Will be watching today and may look to re-enter if it breaks $400:

It was a strong day for ROKU, closing up over 11%. Will need to have a few more days like that for my calls to come back to life. More bullish analyst commentary out this morning on the name, this time from Citi:

Roku price target lowered to $175 from $225 at Citi
Citi analyst Jason Bazinet lowered the firm's price target on Roku (ROKU) to $175 from $225 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The analyst is taking a more conservative posture with respect to the company's valuation. In the wake of slowing growth among streaming services like Netflix (NFLX), the market appears less willing to underwrite future growth in prevailing valuations, Bazinet tells investors in a research note. However, the analyst continues to believe Roku is "well-placed to benefit from the secular shift of ad dollars moving from linear to connected TVs.

If it can hold $103 in the morning, I may look to add some later strikes for the eventual move back over $120:

There were some earnings reports yesterday and this morning that have caught my eye:

BIIB reported a mixed bag of earnings this morning but did announce that the CEO was stepping down. Could see one of those relief rally moves. May look to add some speculative calls for a move into the $220s today:

CDLX, one of my favorite stocks from back in the day, reported a great Q after the close yesterday, beating on estimates and raising guidance. The company should benefit from travel and dining accelerating past post-pandemic lows. Can see it returning to the mid-high $40s and beyond in the coming days. May look at some spec $45 and/or $50 strikes:

Lastly, SMG reported a beat on EPS and revenues but offered up some cautious guidance. I think this was the 'pulling off the band-and Q' and the stock can find some footing over $110. May look at some calls at the open:

A little tidbit here from Marketwatch. Here are the last 6 or so market scares, the 14-20% pullbacks, and the subsequent rallies. Not saying this is what will happen here, but in the midst of all these sell-offs, the feelings of a bear market were similar:

Time will tell. Certainly not going to be overly aggressive today, and would not be surprised of a reversal back to yesterdays levels. But I am hopeful stocks can find a bid into tomorrows Fed decision.

Here are the analyst changes of note for today:

DMC Global price target lowered to $35 from $50 at Roth Capital
Roth Capital analyst Gerry Sweeney lowered the firm's price target on DMC Global to $35 from $50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares ahead of quarterly results. The analyst would be a buyer heading into results as he believes the stock is oversold and pricing in too much negativity. DynaEnergetics likely improved sequentially, and Sweeney anticipates price increases to further bolster Q2 onward, he argues, adding that Arcadia acquisition will be represented for the first time
Cardlytics price target lowered to $50 from $70 at Craig-Hallum
Craig-Hallum analyst Jason Kreyer lowered the firm's price target on Cardlytics to $50 from $70 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares following quarterly results. The analyst notes volatility remains high, and despite ups and downs over the course of the quarter, Cardlytics delivered strong results and a solid guide. The company's visibility into billions of consumer spending indicated that consumer activity slowed in late March, with just a modest recovery in April. That said, the company saw no fundamental impact to its business as a pullback in discretionary spending may push customers to couponing or discounting solutions, right in the Cardlytics wheelhouse, Kreyer adds. Given the recent pullback in the shares, the analyst believes expectations are quite low given the company's exposure to consumer purchasing patterns
Biogen 'throwing in the towel' on Aduhelm, says Piper Sandler
Piper Sandler analyst Christopher Raymond says the big news from this morning's earnings release is twofold, with Biogen disclosing that it has begun the search for a new CEO, which he expects will be well-received by investors, and the company essentially eliminating its commercial infrastructure supporting Aduhelm. The company is "throwing in the towel" on Aduhelm commercial efforts, Raymond tells investors in a research note. While eliminating much of the commercial infrastructure has been somewhat telegraphed, "it still raises the question - is Biogen voting with its feet regarding lecanemab," asks the analyst. Raymond wonders what the company do in the event the Clarity trial is positive and lecanemab has a fileable confirmatory data set. He keeps a Neutral rating on Biogen shares, which are trading up 1% to $209 post the earnings report
Expedia price target raised to $195 from $167 at DA Davidson
DA Davidson analyst Tom White raised the firm's price target on Expedia to $195 from $167 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The analyst cites the company's "constructive" Q1 results that were generally in line with expectations, as omicron proved to be the "least impactful" variant and the impact of the war in Ukraine on EMEA business turned out to be "transitory". White adds that Expedia's Vrbo remains an area of strength that is "still operating above 2019 levels"

Apple's App Store revenue growth accelerated in April, says Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty said that based on data from Sensor Tower, she estimates Apple's App Store net revenue growth accelerated to 8% year-over-year growth in April from March quarter growth of 6% year-over-year. Though the acceleration in growth is slightly weaker than she expected given easing comparisons, Huberty sees green shoots emerging in important markets and regions and sees a path to accelerating App Store growth as comps ease. The analyst, who has not changed her 15% year-over-year June quarter forecast for App Store growth, has an Overweight rating and $195 price target on Apple shares
Freshpet price target lowered to $163 from $181 at Cowen
Cowen analyst Brian Holland lowered the firm's price target on Freshpet to $163 from $181 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The analyst noted Q1 results easily exceeded his and consensus estimates, as improved capacity yielded growth in distribution and velocity. He acknowledges potential for incremental cost pressure this year; however, his demand model points to material sales upside over the next two years

And this is what I am watching today: CDLX, SMG, BIIB, ROKU, SAM, EXPE, TRIP, ALGN, IBM, SPOT, DDOG, MDB, TEAM, RNG, and TWLO.

Let's have a great day!


JimmyBob (Scott)has been trading equities for over 15 years, a majority of which were OTC micro-cap stocks. He started trading high risk stock options over the past 7 years, and has proven winning trades in excess of 15,000%.

As one of the Co-Founders of, Scott enjoys sharing his knowledge with other investors through timely blog posts, daily watch lists in the forum, weekly webinars, and helpful advice within the chatroom.

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