Futures are pointing to a mostly flat open to start the week, with S&P futures down .08% as I write this. Asia markets closed mixed overnight while Europe stocks are mostly higher this morning. The US dollar is green this morning while Yields, Oil, and Gold are all lower.
And this is what UPB is reading this morning: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/morning-reads-23/
Stocks staged huge rallies on Friday, but it was not enough to pull the S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow out of its weekly loss. The Nasdaq and S&P have now staged 6 consecutive weeks of losses, while the Dow has staged 7. The most consecutive weekly losses in 10 years for the S&P, 11 years for the Nasdaq, and nearly 20 years for the Dow. Friday showed some signs again of a possible bottom, but for now most of these rallies can be construed as relief bounces and/or squeezes. If there is a sliver lining, it is that the SPY closed back above that $400 handle. If it can hold that today, maybe we can see some more buyers this week and some continuation back near $419 or so:
Longer view:
Still some earnings this week, here are the implied moves: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/some-implied-moves-for-earnings-this-weekmay-16th-may-20th/
Wedbush upgraded NFLX to Outperform from Neutral this morning. The analyst has been a NFLX bear for years... well maybe for more than a Decade. I used to bust his chops back in the day so I was sure to reach out this morning:
And he was nice enough to reply:
Not going to sit here and say it is straight up from here for NFLX, but could help soothe the sellers and bring in some buyers. If I was looking to play the upgrade today it would be with ROKU, which has already staged a nice reversal from lows last week. If it can clear $99 today, think the $110+ level can come this week. May look at some speculative calls today:
Gold closed lower on Friday but both JDST and DUST rallied as miners rose despite the Gold move. Gold tested $1785 early this morning but has bounced $20 since then. That $1775 level is the next key support zone. If it comes down and breaks that, think the next stop would be $1725. May look to add some GLL calls, GLD puts, and/or JDST calls:
And longer view:
And JDST:
Seems every time the market rallied, IBM fails to find footing... and the reverse when markets falls. It still closed green on Friday but will need to clear that $136 handle in the next day or two for the rest of my May strikes to have a chance:
SSYS is set to report earnings after the close today. It is my favorite name in the 3D space. Last week they announced that their subsidiary Marketbot is gong to merge with Ultimaker, which should help the company put focus on other areas while still reaping the benefits of Marketbots growth. SSYS's last earnings were stellar, and if it was in any other market environment, would have seen shares rocket. Would expect the same after the close today but its anyones guess how the stock reacts. I may just take a flier on some speculative calls and look to enter later dated strikes tomorrow on any huge beat and raise:
Other names on watch today:
TRIP for $25.50+:
U as a gap fill candidate back over $44:
And may look to get back into SAM for a move over the 50dma and possibly to $390 or so:
Here are the analyst changes of note for today:
| Carvana price target lowered to $49 from $140 at DA Davidson |
| DA Davidson analyst Michael Baker lowered the firm's price target on Carvana to $49 from $140 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The company's Operating Plan update released on Friday outlined more detail on their near term plan for EBITDA profitability, which is quicker than what is in the consensus forecast, and also re-emphasized that its near term volumes have improved, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Baker adds that his price target cut reflects near term industry concerns, but also views the overall tone from the presentation as positive |
| Northcoast upgrades Shake Shack on same-store-sales recovery |
| Northcoast analyst Jim Sanderson upgraded Shake Shack to Buy from Neutral with a $70 price target. The analyst expects Shake Shack to drive same-store-sales growth from a combination of menu pricing, traffic and unit growth. Sanderson is "optimistic" that the company's sales leverage will eventually overcome near-term cost inflation and sees opportunity for Shake Shack to "excel" with menu innovation as the U.S. consumer returns to normal mobility patterns, and international tourism traffic returns. Shake Shack continues to experience a recovery of lost traffic in urban markets, while driving average unit revenue growth across regions, Sanderson tells investors in a research note |
| Boeing valuation at compelling entry point, says Cowen |
| Cowen analyst Cai von Rumohr believes Boeing is near an upturn with intact potential for 2024 CFPS of $20. He sees a 7-to-1 risk-reward for the stock and estimate only roughly 12% downside to $112, and that is tied to liquidity concerns, which look unlikely. He said expected near-term catalysts are 737 inventory burndown, 787 deliveries, and a big FCF lift in the second half 2022. von Rumohr reiterated his Outperform rating and $230 price target on Boeing shares |
| Applied Materials price target lowered to $145 from $175 at B. Riley |
| B. Riley analyst Craig Ellis lowered the firm's price target on Applied Materials to $145 from $175 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares into the company's fiscal Q2 results on May 19. The analyst expects "relatively strong execution," but sees "some moderate" consensus estimate risk given intensifying T3-month supply chain and China COVID lockdown challenges. These risks are well known, however, Ellis tells investors in a research note |
| Bot issue likely excuse for lower Twitter price or Musk walks away, says Wedbush |
| Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives notes that with Friday's Elon Musk tweets and more commentary over the weekend it appears the spam/bot issue is cascading and clearly making the Twitter (TWTR) deal a confusing one for the Street to figure out and which direction "this circus show heads next." His view in a nutshell is that the $54.20 deal price for Twitter is now out the window in the Street's perspective and it's about either driving a lower deal price or the Tesla (TSLA) executive could walk away. The "less than 5% spam/bot" issue is clearly at play now front and center for the Twitter deal as a more intense look at the much-discussed bots/fake accounts has long been an issue on the Twitter platform, Ives contends. The analyst has an Outperform rating and a price target of $1,400 on Tesla's shares |
And here is what I am watching today: ROKU, NFLX, SSYS, SAM, TRIP, U, CMG, IBB, JDST, DUST, GLD and GLL.
Let's have a great day!
-JB