Market Perspective

A near 6% surge by the largest company in the world, by market cap, could not stop the S&P500, Russell, and Dow from closing lower today.

Granted it wasn't a blood bath.  Actually early on in the session the market looked poised to head higher.  The concern on these morning rips from a bullish perspective is that they will get sold.  The morning has been a time reserved for the bears, with early weakness usually giving way to a day of strength.

This mornings strength set-up a rather nasty intra-day reversal of fortune for the short term bulls.

As noted in the chat room this morning, that 1030 high has usually led to losses, and vice versa.   Buy the dip or sell the rip.  The price action has been doing the talking.

I posted this an hour into the session in the chat room:

and while the top was not hit until minutes later, the markets again were dictated by this rather consistent pattern.

The pull back took almost 2 hours to complete.

and the overall lows for the session came 15 minutes after the FED decision.

The Nasdaq ended higher, with the help of $AAPL closing right near the session highs and at a new all time record close.

I think today's session was constructive from a bullish perspective.  Again the bears get involved, the allure of weakness is there, the complaints about market complacency that we heard all last year are gone in 2018.  That's a good thing.  And I think you saw it  late afternoon today with a White House Tariff statement that would have taken the market down if this was a month ago, however the tariff nonsense seems to be getting less bang for the downside buck these days.

Look at $TSLA after the bell.  This is the market in a nutshell.  The price action is doing the talking.  And price, at the end of the day, is all the matters.

Price for the NASDAQ  is still a week removed from record - all time - lifetime - highs.  I see a lot of negativity out there, some of it warranted.  If you are looking for a reason to short this market, buy puts.... there are more than enough reasons why this market should fall.

Clearly $AAPL's not doing the massive IPhone growth thing anymore.   Why was it up 6% today?  I've got more than $220 billion reasons why.  Almost 1/4 of a TRILLION Dollars worth of stock has been bought back by $AAPL since 2012.    In the last 6 months its bought $43 BILLION of its own stock.    To put that into perspective solving world Hunger for the entire 2018 would cost $30 billion.  That is incredible.  Anyway...

$AAPL held tech together after some recent post earnings collapses, namely the Book of Face which fell over 20% after reporting its earnings.  $AMZN had a great report last week as well.  $GOOGL's earnings sent it to record highs...  But the top for FANG is in....right?   Perhaps.  And yet those calling a top for the Nasdaq since 20,000 BC were wrong every time when we hit new highs a week ago.  Why is it going to be any different this time around?

Again I think the recent pull back and market action is healthy.  I think the market is going to head higher into the fall.  But there will be pull backs and downside to keep the bears involved.

Small caps looked poised to break to new record highs last week.  They came terribly close and then $IWM collapsed $5 in two trading days.  Small caps look close to making another run at record highs.  That 2008 trendline of support/resistance came into play today.  $IWM closed right above it.

Here is the same chart in different time frames:

Small caps have been leading the market since just before the election in 2016.  It was the first to close green on the Friday before election week.  It then rallied some 15 sessions in a row from there.

The Nasdaq has been trading heavy as of late.  However momentum has waned to the downside.  We are nearing one of those highly anticipated buy signals.  I'll post it the minute it comes.  On a shorter term time frame the Nasdaq 100 futures have a nice upside look to them:

and S&P500 futures - on the other hand... looks a lot like the S&P500 this week - a grind  - at a standstill.  Tonight the $SPY is right at the same $281 level it was all of last night.

Tomorrow may be the day we get a little separation.

That is all for now.

Love the $PYPL short term chart set-up got some calls today:

$VSI is looking terrific - still holding November calls:

$GME has a great set-up for upside  - Im in calls:

$GS looks ready to break that $240 level - I got some call today

That is all have a great night:

Known to most as Uranium Pinto Beans, Jason has more than 15 years under his belt of trading stocks, options and currencies. His expertise primarily lies in chart analysis, and he has a strong eye for undervalued stock. Because he’s got the ability to identify great risk/reward trades he usually enjoys taking the path less traveled and reaping the benefits from the adventure.

He is a co-founder of Option Millionaires, and he is best known for his weekly webinars with Scott, as well as his high level training webinars and charts found in the forums.

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