Futures are pointing to a tough start to the week, with the S&P set to open 1.2% lower as I write this. Asia stocks tumbled overnight with the Nikkei losing over 5% while Europe indexes are in the red this morning. The US Dollar, Yields, and Oil are higher while Gold is lower.
And here is the Week Ahead Webinar from last night if you missed : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/the-week-ahead-march-8th-2026/
Welcome to another wild start to the trading week with the war in Iran causing more wild market swings as uncertainty reigns supreme. Futures opened down 1% overnight with Oil at $100 a barrel but things escalated quickly from there. By 11:30 eastern time, Oil was $119.48 and S&P futures were down 2.5% with the Strait of Hormuz being the key catalyst amongst many others. 20%+ of the worlds oil go through that strait and although technically not closed, nothing is pretty much going through at the moment hence the panic swing in Oil. U.S. officials are saying the spike in oil and situation in the strait is temporary but markets are in a 'buy Oil now and ask questions later' type of mood. After Europe markets opened earlier this morning Oil prices have fallen well off their highs but still over $100 a barrel. Futures have also recouped some of the losses, but still deep in the red. Now the question is, how to play this?
Like I have been saying for the past week, my worry is some surprise event that escalates things. An attack on US soil, suicide bomber, an assassination or some type of event like that. I am not saying that is my only worry, but that would automatically have me put my bear suit on. The other worry right now is that Oil prices stay elevated well over $100 for a substantial period of time... like 1-2 months. I would say stagflation is coming and then a recession.
The optimist in me hope this situation resolves relatively soon with a positive outcome. That this week we see a slow down in the amount of missile coming out of Iran, and maybe, just maybe some time of framework for peace, A glimmer of hope. That would be the ideal scenario - well outside a complete halt of all attacks on both sides.
Today we get to see how the market handles oil shock. I had $676 as the key spot on the SPY and now we have $655. The SPY got all the way down to $656.80 in the overnight session. So would want to see that hold if sellers come in after the open.
The problem when the VIX is high like it is are premiums are almost unplayable. And even if you had puts heading into today, people may still lose money on those trades on a 1% gap down as crazy as it sounds. So for me, will be looking for low premium trades. I mentioned V on the rant. V has barely a 3% implied move. The stock could stay flat but the puts may skyrocket just because of the VIX. So those will be the trades I will have my eyes on. Along with some others names below. Will try to get on the audio when I can if I see some important catalysts during the day. And lastly, so easy to get fear mongered on days like today. To put things in context the S&P will be opening at levels not seen since December:
LMND traded up near $57 on Friday despite the market weakness. I used the move to close more of my calls out for over 100%. If It reverses the morning gap, I may look for more strikes to play for a move north of $60. The 200dma at $58.37 is the next key spot:
Tight bollies on RDDT. A big move is coming, It could be down as well but you know my thoughts. Like INTU, some far OTM spec calls may pay better than trying to time the move so don't be surprised if I add later dated strikes:
SERV reports earnings before the open Wednesday. Won't be adding anything. Bears will try their best to keep it down so wouldn't surprise me to see them try even after a monster Q. At the same time, could be the kick it needs to finally get back going in the right direction to $13.75 and beyond:
SE is an old name back on watch after getting demolished despite a great Q. Could be one of those post earnings bounce back plays. If it goes red to green at the open may eye some calls to play for a move over $100:
CF is a name I talked about on the week ahead. 30%+ of the worlds fertilizer goes through the strait of hormuz which should only benefit CF as supply issues will allow them to raise prices... ect. Will be eyeing calls. Think $130+ possible:
And GLW is back under the price when I initially entered my calls. Could be ready for round 2 here:
WIll continue to keep things small and look at financials for put hedges if the SPY breaks down.
And here is what I am watching today: SE, GLW, CF, NTR, MOS, SERV, SHOP, ANET, RBLX, RDDT, GLW, RH, LMND, HTFL, AAOI, ROKU, POOL. V, MA, ZM, SEDG, WING, SHOP, SQQQ, MRNA, DUST, FLWS, COCO, POOL, RH, SG, LMND, NKLR, COIN, KODK, MDB, MSTR, BIIB, INTU, WMT, HD, ZS, TERN, and SQQQ.
Let’s have a great day!
-JB